yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 111 and 114 look very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Remember the days when you'd see at 1040 high and just knew it was money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 111 looks very nice Come on Yoda, try to keep up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Pretty good damming sig at 111. Wasn't really looking closely at previous runs..so not sure if it's better or worse surprised to see this map on the ncep site at 96 hrs fwiw http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_096_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151224+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 As modeled on the GFS, it's a pretty substantial event RELATIVE to this sorry winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 111 is sleet... 114 is barely snow at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 surprised to see this map on the ncep site at 96 hrs fwiw http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_096_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151224+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Actually Mitch, that looks pretty accurate. I'm on Amwx Model page and the 850 line is just north of the M/D line at that hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This little sneak attack might need to be watched. I mean, I still don't have much faith, especially with the Euro not so hot on it...but it's something I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Low seems to be moving more in sync with the high instead of the high running way far out in front and allowing the storm to cut west earlier when comparing this run to the previous 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This little sneak attack might need to be watched. I mean, I still don't have much faith, especially with the Euro not so hot on it...but it's something I guess. and the trend really has been our friend the past 36 hrs. I recall Ian mentioning a few weeks ago how the Highs to our north have been stronger than proged a few days out and that seems to be happening here too so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 and the trend really has been our friend the past 36 hrs. I recall Ian mentioning a few weeks ago how the Highs to our north have been stronger than proged a few days out and that seems to be happening here too so far LOL...this would put alot of people above climo for Dec...different winter, same results, keep it coming... If that high slides out just a little bit slower it would be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 We also get the added bonus of this happening at night, not during the day which should help some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Caveat Emptor But......as several have said, the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Well, it would be fitting to end a record smashing heatwave December with an inch of slush. Euro ens not feeling it. Maybe 4-5 members see it the same way as the gefs. Not saying that can't change but it all seems quite low on the probability scale all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Well, it would be fitting to end a record smashing heatwave December with an inch of slush. Euro ens not feeling it. Maybe 4-5 members see it the same way as the gefs. Not saying that can't change but it all seems quite low on the probability scale all things considered. Isn't this a CAD situation? And doesn't the Euro usually have a hard time with this setup? I know of a few vivid remembrances of where it failed miserably in a situation like this.....The Chill Storm being evidence exhibit A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Isn't this a CAD situation? And doesn't the Euro usually have a hard time with this setup? I know of a few vivid remembrances of where it failed miserably in a situation like this.....The Chill Storm being evidence exhibit A. It's definitely a CAD event. GFS is a perfect solution with timing, strength of CAD, low progression, etc. My skepticism comes from where we are coming from. We haven't had a single cold front over perform this year. The ridge to the se has ended up being harder to move every single time a front has been modeled in the medium range for weeks now. I don't see this setup as being any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It's definitely a CAD event. GFS is a perfect solution with timing, strength of CAD, low progression, etc. My skepticism comes from where we are coming from. We haven't had a single cold front over perform this year. The ridge to the se has ended up being harder to move every single time a front has been modeled in the medium range for weeks now. I don't see this setup as being any different. That's my issue. It's hard not to be skeptical in this pattern and with a sudden shift like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I know Miller Bs aren't a hot topic around these parts, but the GFS is trying to spin up something in the LR from a few different clipper shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z GGEM has the same idea... but a lil warmer than the GFS at the same time re hr 114.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Well, it would be fitting to end a record smashing heatwave December with an inch of slush. Euro ens not feeling it. Maybe 4-5 members see it the same way as the gefs. Not saying that can't change but it all seems quite low on the probability scale all things considered. I pretty much agree, it could happen but the timing of the precip and how cold the air mass is makes a world of difference. There is not a lot of cold air around but the high does get in a good place on the GFS so you can't completely rule it out. I would like to see more than 5 Euro members on the GFS bandwagon.. That said, I hope the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The double G rule.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 LR GFS is dry, yes, but of a cold we've not even been led to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Isn't this a CAD situation? And doesn't the Euro usually have a hard time with this setup? I know of a few vivid remembrances of where it failed miserably in a situation like this.....The Chill Storm being evidence exhibit A. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45262-january-banter-thread/page-16?hl=%2Beuro#entry3235861 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I forgot how awesome that was...screw the Euro...buy American Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 HM tweeting about 12z GEFS advertising a deformation of the PV at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Looking at the 12z gfs ens....the mean low position is a good 150 miles east of 6z with the high position hanging on a little better as well. Who knows....at least something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This ought to be an interesting EC run... 1045 H moving eastward and the low is in Arkansas ETA: Or not... it looked okay early on though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Legit -AO on the 12z GEFS and getting stronger as we go later in the run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This ought to be an interesting EC run... 1045 H moving eastward and the low is in Arkansas ETA: Or not... it looked okay early on though That high in that position......you would think some serious CAD. Euro low also looks east of 0z....but I have limited graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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