usedtobe Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 One thing the globals seem to agree on is a pretty steep pna ridge popping and tightly spaced shortwaves embedded in the flow. This is going to cause model mayhem at ranges outside of 5 days. Since we're still 8+/- days away from that pattern even being in place it's pretty silly to dissect any op run. With that being said I do like seeing multiple vorts and closed ull's showing up on the ops. Nothing worse than getting a good +pna going that only keeps us cool and dry with sheared vorts and no moisture. I doubt that will be the case during the first week of Jan. With the rather sharp ridge/trough configuration that we keep seeing, shortwaves "should" have a good chance at amplifying or even closing off. We just need to hope that one sets it's sights on us. Anywhere from the SE to NNE is probably in the game from what I'm seeing right now. Just gotta keep waiting it out for another week until the medium range has more clarity. One negative on the latest AO are the low heights over southern Greenland and Iceland. Not a deal killer but it does make it a tad harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 One negative on the latest AO are the low heights over southern Greenland and Iceland. Not a deal killer but it does make it a tad harder.Yea, getting all the pieces to work together for us hasn't happened in 5 years. Bad run of luck there. The brief window looks similar to the last couple years. Shotgun style instead of rifle with a scope. Total wag odds at measurable though the first week of Jan...40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm a Mac guy myself. No more Ctl+Alt+Delete for me. No sir. On a weather note, in all seriousness, the first week in January is looking more interesting. It's a sneak attack. Once I went Mac I never went back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Big changes on the 00z GFS run for us for the 28th 00z GFS moves the 0c 850 line down into N MD at 114 its sleet in N VA at hr 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yea, getting all the pieces to work together for us hasn't happened in 5 years. Bad run of luck there. The brief window looks similar to the last couple years. Shotgun style instead of rifle with a scope. Total wag odds at measurable though the first week of Jan...40% That's a pretty good guess at something measurable and maybe the window won't be as brief. December 1990 saw hideous warmth for almost the entire month yet we lucked out and got a decent storm late in the month sandwiched between 2 extremely warm stretches. Also had a decent event in January 1991 I think around the 6th or 7th. Even the horrid winters of 1992,1999, 2002, and 2008 all saw measurable snow that occurred during small windows of opportunity. The Feb. 87 storm could probably be included as well and there are probably several more examples I am overlooking. Bottom line would be it is not as difficult as we think getting something decent following long periods of extreme warmth. It just seems so bleak now because of the crazy nature of this torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 To quote Bob Chill at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Sneaky snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Sneaky snow? [url=http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_modul If I'm not mistaken, most of that is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The 00z GEFS and individs are going to be interesting to look at... this is a big move by the GFS... hope its a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The 00z GEFS and individs are going to be interesting to look at... this is a big move by the GFS... hope its a trend 06z will be telling!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 06z will be telling!!1! Perhaps... but I am merely interested in the individ ensembles to see if they agree with the OP. For this "storm", this is the first time we have even come close to the 0c 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The 00z GEFS and individs are going to be interesting to look at... this is a big move by the GFS... hope its a trend Eh, getting cold at the midlevels AND surface is a pretty big challenge. It's a cad/front end setup but when you have a mountain of obstacles to overcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Eh, getting cold at the midlevels AND surface is pretty big challenge. It's a cad/front end setup but when you have a mountain to overcome... It will likely depend on how strong the H is... if its stronger than forecast right now... things could get interesting in a hurry... some of the individ ensemble members from both the 12z and 18z run had this type of solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Stronger high to our north and slightly better placement. Where do you see the individual GEFS members? I use Raleigh's... but you can also get them here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 06z will be telling!!1! You owe me. I have that line copyrighted. On another note, is NCEP slow for anybody else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It will likely depend on how strong the H is... if its stronger than forecast right now... things could get interesting in a hurry... some of the individ ensemble members from both the 12z and 18z run had this type of solution GGEM still coming out on WxBell but I'm out to 120. 850s and surface below freezing in western MD. Could be Wisp's first storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Don't know soundings... but it looks like NW VA/W MD/E WV are being hit with snow at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0c 850 line gets to right by DCA at 114 and 120 on GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 P004/P005/P009/P012/P019 all point to wintry weather at hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Trends are our fiends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Perhaps... but I am merely interested in the individ ensembles to see if they agree with the OP. For this "storm", this is the first time we have even come close to the 0c 850 line Probably true on the 850's but the Gfs has show the possibility of frozen with this since about day 10. The Euro isn't very far away from the same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 HP 1 mb stronger on 6z at hour 120. Looks like CAD is about the same on the ops. Will be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 If changes continue on this next event coming up, it will be interesting to see how that affects the other precipitation possibilities in the next 6 to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 And the NYE precip event looks somewhat better...maybe rain to slop...6Z was fun today...almost festive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Euro day 10 ensemble. I could live with this and see where it goes.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015122400&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=472 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 CPC analogs still quite supportive for a frozen event down the line. D8 and 11+ are loaded with the buffet again. Only 1 significant snow in the mix but lots of mixed/icy/light snow showing up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 And the NYE precip event looks somewhat better...maybe rain to slop...6Z was fun today...almost festive ...i would love nothing better but to see those new years eve revelers in times square freezing their hineys off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Can we get P005 or P012 off the 6z GEFS individ ensembles please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On 12z GFS, at hr 102 the 0c 850 line is straddling the Mason-Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Pretty good damming sig at 111. Wasn't really looking closely at previous runs..so not sure if it's better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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