BTRWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 5:43 AM, Fozz said: That's a good question... I don't think it's happened ever since I started following weather in January 2002. Wow. Seems like 1/12/1996 and 1/20/2000 are the most recent examples. Wasn't that period around the time of Commutegeddon in 2011? eta: There have been several. Since the link keeps changing, here is dca's monthly snowfall reports http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Most of the precip splits to miss D.C. for 1/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Nice phasing on 1/10, but there's just not any cold air. That might be enough for me for that event. eta: The whole state of NY would be rain. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Pretty terrible EURO run. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 5:43 AM, Fozz said: That's a good question... I don't think it's happened ever since I started following weather in January 2002. Wow. Seems like 1/12/1996 and 1/20/2000 are the most recent examples. Well, it looks like a 14-incher snuck in at the very end of January during the 1966 super nino--if that counts for anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 7:02 AM, Highzenberg said: Pretty terrible EURO run. ugh. Let me explain...there just isn't anything close to a snowstorm on the run. Few decent arctic outbreaks, but just nothing close to a snowstorm. However, the GFS ensembles have a lot of huge hits in the 16-18th range. Only thing to really grasp onto on the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There is def a sign on the Euro ensembles for something around the 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Rain for the two systems, so far, on 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The 17th looks like a slow moving arctic front on the 6z. An nothing looks like the 18z from yesterday. Go figure. Maybe we'll get lucky late Jan/Feb but if the pattern is supposed to be moving in a certain direction then I have to wonder what direction that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 5:55 AM, Amped said: 2011 and a few small events in 2014 but that's about it for this region. On 1/5/2016 at 6:02 AM, BTRWx said: Wasn't that period around the time of Commutegeddon in 2011? eta: There have been several. Since the link keeps changing, here is dca's monthly snowfall reports http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf On 1/5/2016 at 7:26 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Well, it looks like a 14-incher snuck in at the very end of January during the 1966 super nino--if that counts for anything Nope, he was talking specifically about significant events from Jan 10 to Jan 20th. There've hardly been any in recent years. Commutageddon was late in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 7:55 AM, Highzenberg said: Let me explain...there just isn't anything close to a snowstorm on the run. Few decent arctic outbreaks, but just nothing close to a snowstorm. However, the GFS ensembles have a lot of huge hits in the 16-18th range. Only thing to really grasp onto on the 00z runs. Ensembles > OP in the 10+ day range. Why are we even tracking 12 day storms? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 12:31 PM, Fozz said: Nope, he was talking specifically about significant events from Jan 10 to Jan 20th. There've hardly been any. Commutageddon was late in the month. Jan 12-13, 1964 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 0z EPS and 6z GEFS still supporting the coastal around idea the 16-18. 15 day mean snowfall for DCA is 1.5" on the EPS. I still like the 15-20th to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 12:33 PM, Fozz said: Ensembles > OP in the 10+ day range. Why are we even tracking 12 day storms? lol Pretty sure the ensembles were calling for a snowstorm this weekend several days ago...that is why DT went woof...the ensembles are only correct when they scream warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GGEM has a Greenland block, our only hope until the next hope appears on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 To make matters worse, my dad is getting Bay effect snow right now in Hampton Roads. Already a dusting and still snowing hard. The band has grown too. I can't believe they get snow before us... That is not why I moved up here. Edit: Not to mention Cape Cod is getting heavy Ocean Effect right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I keep worrying about a procrastination winter that never produces! I think we were spoiled the last 2 years, but I also think we waited quite a while to get snow last year as well.. kept hoping in January and it took until February to deliver. It was plenty cold last January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 1:24 PM, CoastalBecs said: To make matters worse, my dad is getting Bay effect snow right now in Hampton Roads. Already a dusting and still snowing hard. The band has grown too. I can't believe they get snow before us... That is not why I moved up here Just wait until Atlanta gets hit with 6"+.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Mid-Jan is kind of a black hole in the snowfall records. At DCA, the record on the 14th is 1.6". 2.2" on the 16th and 2.9" on the 8th. No daily records over 10" from the 8th to 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 1:28 PM, MN Transplant said: Mid-Jan is kind of a black hole in the snowfall records. At DCA, the record on the 14th is 1.6". 2.2" on the 16th and 2.9" on the 8th. No daily records over 10" from the 8th to 21st. thats very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 1:24 PM, CoastalBecs said: To make matters worse, my dad is getting Bay effect snow right now in Hampton Roads. Already a dusting and still snowing hard. The band has grown too. I can't believe they get snow before us... That is not why I moved up here. Edit: Not to mention Cape Cod is getting heavy Ocean Effect right now It already snowed in Vegas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 1:26 PM, midatlanticweather said: I keep worrying about a procrastination winter that never produces! I think we were spoiled the last 2 years, but I also think we waited quite a while to get snow last year as well.. kept hoping in January and it took until February to deliver. It was plenty cold last January! We had a couple very minor events in November 2014. That winter started early, just didn't get much snow til late Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Jan 6 last year delivered a nice little clipper at least where I lived. Forgot about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 12:45 PM, leesburg 04 said: Pretty sure the ensembles were calling for a snowstorm this weekend several days ago...that is why DT went woof...the ensembles are only correct when they scream warm Not really. He started "barking" based on the advertised pattern on the Ensembles beginning to look favorable for an east coast storm. His thread was started on the 29th I believe. At least on the GEFS there was no storm, looking ahead to Jan 10-11. The trough axis/lowest height anomalies being advertised at that time were still pretty far west if you go back and look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 1:28 PM, MN Transplant said: Mid-Jan is kind of a black hole in the snowfall records. At DCA, the record on the 14th is 1.6". 2.2" on the 16th and 2.9" on the 8th. No daily records over 10" from the 8th to 21st. It's definitely strange and something I have wondered about for a while especially considering this is the period of the year with the coldest averages. I had a post in some thread a while back about how there is another strange snow hole period in December centered between the 17th and 26th. I never did any research on it and went strictly by memory by it seemed like snowfall in December is more likely to occur between the 3rd and 15th opposed to the second half go the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Something to ponder with today's CPC d11+ analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 2:58 PM, Bob Chill said: Something to ponder with today's CPC d11+ analogs... analogs.JPG T in Jan '83 T in Jan '98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 ^ looks like we might be in a super nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm not sure it's super weird we have a black hole for higher snow during the coldest time of year. Jan is often like right now. Cold and dry and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 On 1/5/2016 at 3:03 PM, Ian said: ^ looks like we might be in a super nino Exactly what I was thinking-- the analogs are flooded with strong Nino's. So, in that sense, this January is progressing, upper-level-anomaly-wise, similarly to previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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