yoda Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 12:14 AM, Bob Chill said: Nope. Unless I haven't uncovered it yet. Wxbell is loaded to the gills with all kinds of time sucking model data. Get a 7 day free trial and then after you get sucked in and start paying...take one for the team and get accuwx too for soundings...lol Doesn't Ji usually have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 12:12 AM, Bob Chill said: The pattern overall is so so. Lowest heights biased in the SW and the epo ridge relaxes. However, it's far far better than anything we saw in Dec. That's the burning question right now. Do we get a taste of winter in early Jan and then go back to agony or are we in the game? Weeklies would imply we are in the game at least. Even with temps AN weeks 3-4, mean 0c 850 contour stays south of us the whole period. If any month can produce with AN temps on the means it would be Jan. And it doesn't look like a dry pattern so there's that. Lastly, considering we look to be going through a rather abrupt pattern change that wasn't modeled well its hard to have any confidence in 15-30+ day guidance. Interesting stuff going on right now. I was reading your post and going "yeah, but..." And then you said in your last paragraph exactly what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 12:15 AM, yoda said: Based off Raleigh's GFS individ ensembles, some of them are pretty tasty C000/P001/P002/P006/P007/P012/P014/P015/P016/P020 are all decent hits and have DCA at 2" or more of snow I looked at the PSU site and thought the overwhelming majority supported the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 12:15 AM, yoda said: Based off Raleigh's GFS individ ensembles, some of them are pretty tasty C000/P001/P002/P006/P007/P012/P014/P015/P016/P020 are all decent hits and have DCA at 2" or more of snow Phew! For a second there 'tasty' looked an awful lot like 'toasty'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 1:07 AM, WxMan1 said: Phew! For a second there 'tasty' looked an awful lot like 'toasty'. Good to see you back posting again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/24/2015 at 11:58 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's nice. Also added 850 temp contours. Wxbell does a good job keeping weenies sucked in. Lol On 12/25/2015 at 12:09 AM, mitchnick said: Almost about time. I'm still a little torn over Wxbell and Accu. Does Wxbell have skewts for the Euro?WB does have the new para monthly/weekly which goes out 46 days. Shows relax in mid Jan and then better look end of Jan into Feb.Mitch - it's time, you have your first real threat to track too. We can also save money next winter with a big Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 1:09 AM, yoda said: Good to see you back posting again Thanks! Always nice to be here. I've just been waiting for...like everyone else...a pattern change. Good to see that we will be heading toward more 'seasonable' weather. Gotta walk before we can run...and right now...we're crawling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Took a weenie glance at the 21z SREFs at hr 87 to see what it showed... looks decent 1044 H just above Lake Superior and SLP looks to be in SE OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 1:12 AM, NCrain said: WB does have the new para monthly/weekly which goes out 46 days. Shows relax in mid Jan and then better look end of Jan into Feb. Mitch - it's time, you have your first real threat to track too. We can also save money next winter with a big Nina. But I'd pay for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 1:16 AM, yoda said: Took a weenie glance at the 21z SREFs at hr 87 to see what it showed... looks decent 1044 H just above Lake Superior and SLP looks to be in SE OK Can't believe we are talking the possibility of frozen. If you read LWX forecast discussion they aren't even hinting at it. I can't say I blame them. Curious to see the hohoho run at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 1:54 AM, BristowWX said: Can't believe we are talking the possibility of frozen. If you read LWX forecast discussion they aren't even hinting at it. I can't say I blame them. Curious to see the hohoho run at 0Z. They must be at least considering it because my forecast, from LWX, has rain and snow for Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 2:10 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: They must be at least considering it because my forecast, from LWX, has rain and snow for Monday night. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Meh, not a good run of the GFS... maybe some snow in N MD... but no one really gets much unless you are right by the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 4:01 AM, yoda said: Meh, not a good run of the GFS... maybe some snow in N MD... but no one really gets much unless you are right by the M/D line And we are back to our regularly scheduled program. Glad I didn't get too emotionally vested in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 4:01 AM, yoda said: Meh, not a good run of the GFS... maybe some snow in N MD... but no one really gets much unless you are right by the M/D line Yeah, not good at all. Temps are mid-upper 30s even up there. 18z and 00z are not moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 4:05 AM, BristowWX said: And we are back to our regularly scheduled program. Glad I didn't get too emotionally vested in this one. Well, I've been sort of "ho-hum" on that event next week, in fact I didn't even pay any attention to it until people on here started discussing the possibility. I wouldn't rule it totally out yet, though. If we get 50 and rain, well, I don't consider that a real "loss" as I don't expect anything through the end of this month at least. Most of my focus has been on the period after the New Year, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 4:01 AM, yoda said: Meh, not a good run of the GFS... maybe some snow in N MD... but no one really gets much unless you are right by the M/D lineOdd too considering NYC does much better this run than even 12z. Still time, but we'll be lucky with an inch out of this kind of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Let's see what the ensembles did first before jumping off the bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 4:36 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Precip onset is a bit earlier than 18z. You have the right mindset here though--there seems to be a low ceiling with this one. Plenty of time for another cold trend lolThe fact that we are so close to the boundary between snow and no is mind boggling to me really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 4:30 AM, yoda said: Let's see what the ensembles did first before jumping off the bus Apologies if my earlier comment sounded dismissive to you or to anyone else...not my intent at all. But I seriously haven't payed much of any attention to this possible event until I saw others getting more into it. Didn't even think there was a remote possibility of anything through the remainder of December. At any rate, yes, it is too early to totally give up with one not very favorable deterministic run of the GFS. As others have said, the bar is kind of low right now and I'm not expecting much (if anything) out of this event. But the fact that there's even something to track in a month of record or near-record heat is kind of amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 5:00 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Dug deeper. It's not close on this run. Outside of far west areas, we're warm virtually all the way through the column. Eh.Well I meant close as in 75-100 miles vs. 500+ as we are now! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Just give me the 384hr gfs block for christmas. I don't want anything else. Just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 5:34 AM, Bob Chill said: Just give me the 384hr gfs block for christmas. I don't want anything else. Just that.Wow. That is picturesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 -AO on the long range gefs just keeps looking better. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 12:45 PM, WxUSAF said: -AO on the long range gefs just keeps looking better. Merry Christmas! Yeah haven't seen this for awhile.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Ensembles are giving me my Christmas present. Great EPS run last night. Not only does it show a nice -ao developing like the GEFS, now the highest heights in Canada are up in the yukon and not south of Hudson. Really sweet panels late in the run. Looks like SoCal will get meaningful rain. STJ looks great again. I'm tossing the last weeklies run. Week 3 is meaningless. H5 pattern is much different than the 0z run on the 24th. Probably one of the best winter patterns I've seen since 09-10 on the means (def not that good though). Too good not to post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 3:12 PM, Bob Chill said: Ensembles are giving me my Christmas present. Great EPS run last night. Not only does it show a nice -ao developing like the GEFS, now the highest heights in Canada are up in the yukon and not south of Hudson. Really sweet panels late in the run. Looks like SoCal will get meaningful rain. STJ looks great again. I'm tossing the last weeklies run. Week 3 is meaningless. H5 pattern is much different than the 0z run on the 24th. Probably one of the best winter patterns I've seen since 09-10 on the means (def not that good though). Too good not to post... gameon.JPG Holy hohoho. That is sweet. I hope this holds. And would like to ask for some flakes for New Years Day since someone upstairs is in a giving mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Can anyone give me a link to the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 3:37 PM, WxWatcher007 said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122506&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0 TT is a good site for GEFS 500 maps and other data. Wxbell is where it's at if you want deeper information like teleconnection progs and deep dive stuff for temps, etc. Thanks and Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/25/2015 at 3:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Bob, it's beautiful. If the pattern were to go from putrid to good in such a short period it'd be quite a sight to behold. Long way to go obviously, but you can't help but feel good seeing the two most reliable pieces of guidance in virtual lock step for a pretty good hemispheric shift.Ninos can flip fast which makes the 'it takes a while' not that solid of a comment. Then again 97-98 had an -ao so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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