The obliteration of a daily maximum temperature plausible across a large area of the the OV - NE regions

[Typhoon Tip]

The day at risk is December 13...some chance the governing pattern supporting excessive warmth, relative to season, will linger into the 14th.  However, the higher confidence day is this immediate next Sunday.

 

Here is a source listing the December maximum temperature records at four major climate site across SNE:

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bosdec.shtml

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/pvddec.shtml

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/orhdec.shtml

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bdldec.shtml

 

Temperature records for the 13th are not particularly high for that date. Nonetheless, with a pattern supporting upper tier 850 mb temperature transport through the Ohio Valley then arcing over top a whopper + 4 SD ridge anomaly in the east, could result in temperatures over a large area exceeding the low to mid 60s we see listed there.  

 

Signals converging are multi-source teleconnector prognostication showing a falling PNA with a statically positive NAO (there is some suggestion that the NAO may be falling), combined with operational model trends that have for days been flagging an impressively deep western trough event now scheduled for D 4-6, offering spatial relay .. superposition of lead ridging over top already anomalous high eastern heights.  This should balloon things.  Really mechanically driving unusually warm well-mixed air right around the perimeter of said balloon, from the lower MV right on up eventually in here -

 

I believe in this particular scenario the ridge over-top amplitude in the general sense is around median confidence; the idea of a warm anomalies in general are very high relative to D6/7 outlooks/typical verification results. The idea of the dailies supporting at least a day nearing or exceeding records is also above normal relative to an extended range outlook.  

 

It's hard to drive heights to 590 DM nearing the latitude of the Del Marva, with a 500 mb deep layer, mid troposphere to surface uni-directional WSW/SW flow (placing DAY-BOS axis quintessentially inside the well-mix warm conveyor )...for days and days of model runs and teleconnector support ... without suspecting something like this.  

[dendrite]

The euro has 2m 60s Sat-Sun-Mon over parts of SNE. Pretty insane.

[Damage In Tolland]

Certainly a few days of 70+ in there. #ninoheater.

[Allsnow]

So far through the first 5 days of the month

Bos +4.7

Orh +4.5

Bdl +3.5

These departures are only going up...what a torch

[nzucker]

So far through the first 5 days of the month

Bos +4.7

Orh +4.5

Bdl +3.5

These departures are only going up...what a torch

NYC +6.5

The funny part is that the first week of December may be its coldest with +4 to +6 departures. 18z GFS shows 10C 850s up to Newfoundland for next weekend, then another cutter the following Thursday with 12C 850s here. PV migrates from Greenland to Alaska to maintain an unfavorable pattern.

The entire Northeast should easily break the record for warmest December. Just no cold air anywhere in sight the next two weeks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

What are the monthly record departures?

[weathafella]

Perfect storm for records. Rapidly dropping climo and a pattern running max temps 20+ above on some days. One thing that's lacking so far are the warm nights though.

[CoastalWx]

I don't know, it's struggling to go below 32 lately. I've barely made 30 each night.

[weathafella]

I don't know, it's struggling to go below 32 lately. I've barely made 30 each night.

Close to climo vs max temperatures which are way above frequently though.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw the "warm bulge" event amid the lengthier ongoing above norms probably hauls Bith kinetic ally charged breeze up all night with DPs possibly into The 50s. Whether out right on the model charts or not those types of extremes easily fit inside that synoptic appeal and probably just smoothed out right now for being so far out in time

[CoastalWx]

Close to climo vs max temperatures which are way above frequently though.

We have had dry air, but it's been pretty mild. I mean it's an event to go below 32 in December. Ridiculous.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Ensembles really had the 11-13 period pegged nicely for some stupidly warm air. Not sure how the daytime temps will unfold but certainly nighttime mins will be awful

[HoarfrostHubb]

October colder than December?

[SlantStick]

At least we do not have a pack to be wiped out!

[Damage In Tolland]

Another week of shorts

 

CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY SHOW

POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN 60S SAT THRU MON AND ENSEMBLES EVEN HAVE A
FEW MEMBERS CLOSER TO 70 SUN.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another week of shorts

CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY SHOW

POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN 60S SAT THRU MON AND ENSEMBLES EVEN HAVE A

FEW MEMBERS CLOSER TO 70 SUN.

I thought Tollan was so high there is only snow!!! I think all of us in the north east are in for some super warm temps. This would fit perfect contact