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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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Had a brief period of snow mixed with sleet at the mountain this morning, barely enough to accumulate some sleet on the cars. Looks like there will be another round, but temps holding in the 20s upper mountain.

 

Yeah we had a brief period of sleet/snow mixed this morning.

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Was doing some looking through the records, because we are getting into uncharted territory now with snow depths and lack of snowfall.

 

Seeing as the highest depth recorded at the MMNV1 coop stake is 29" to date, I was trying to figure out what is the latest date in record that snow depths didn't hit at least 30".

 

NowData tells me the mean date of hitting 30" snow depth is December 14th.  The late record is January 21, 1965 (which we have now passed by 5 days).  There may be years that snow depth is less than 30" right now (not sure haven't looked) but every other year in the period of record has at least hit 30" depth or higher on at least one observation by this point in the season.

 

Given the outlook for the next 10 days or so, its not looking like we exceed 30" until at least early February.  Uncharted territory.

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Was doing some looking through the records, because we are getting into uncharted territory now with snow depths and lack of snowfall.

 

Seeing as the highest depth recorded at the MMNV1 coop stake is 29" to date, I was trying to figure out what is the latest date in record that snow depths didn't hit at least 30".

 

NowData tells me the mean date of hitting 30" snow depth is December 14th.  The late record is January 21, 1965 (which we have now passed by 5 days).  There may be years that snow depth is less than 30" right now (not sure haven't looked) but every other year in the period of record has at least hit 30" depth or higher on at least one observation by this point in the season.

 

Given the outlook for the next 10 days or so, its not looking like we exceed 30" until at least early February.  Uncharted territory.

 

To me, the real question is going to be whether we challenge an all time "low" record. By count, I have the lowest max ever at 48".  That seems almost impossibly low right. Though there are host of sub. 60" readings. In fact the last 60 years there have been 6 sub 60 readings or one about ever 10 years. We're due. 

 

So I say: do we get over 60"?

 

If the stake falls below 20" on 2/1 I see it hard, but far from impossible to make it to 60"

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To me, the real question is going to be whether we challenge an all time "low" record. By count, I have the lowest max ever at 48".  That seems almost impossibly low right. Though there are host of sub. 60" readings. In fact the last 60 years there have been 6 sub 60 readings or one about ever 10 years. We're due. 

 

So I say: do we get over 60"?

 

If the stake falls below 20" on 2/1 I see it hard, but far from impossible to make it to 60"

 

Yeah I was looking at 1994-1995 where the deepest snow depth was ~50"... and was thinking if we make that or not this year.  It'll be interesting to see what happens but we are definitely in the basement of years since 1954. 

 

It'll be interesting to see where we stand after the first week of February.  Unless something really changes, we may very well challenge some records this year.  Though all it takes is one big event to boost that snow depth quite a bit.  But the 2-6" events aren't going to really cut it at this point.  We gotta start racking up some Winter Storm Warnings.  I still have this feeling that it'll come in like April or something.

 

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General Musings....

 

Still just about 100% snowcovered here but some grass starting to show under my apple trees.  Snow depth is down to 4" of glacier type snow so it melts slowly.  Lots of mid 30's coming up and the sun angle is increasing so going to really start loosing it on south slopes.  The White Mountains must be way, way below normal in snow depth.  I know PF has been posting about Mansfield but they have gotten upslope which is much less in the Whites.  Not one really good synoptic storm this season.

 

Newfound Lake still 2/3rd's open.  It's ready to "catch" only needs one calm cold night like tomorrow night.  Average daily temps are still going to be below freezing but wonder how much sun adds to melting> For instance lets say its a 28F day with full sun.  Would the sun negate the below freezing temperature?  How much does a shade temp vs sun temp vary this time of year?  Will be interesting to see if the lake gains ice with day temps in the mid 30's with sun and nights in the low 20's.

 

FYI spoke to the folks down in the Baltimore suburbs.  Street was finally plowed today,  3 days after the storm.  They say a quick pass so only wide enough for one car at a time.  

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Interesting that its a whopping 46F at both MVL (750ft) and MPV (1150ft) in VT, while SLK (1,650ft) in NY is behind the boundary with 33/33 1.75sm -SN.... that can't get east soon enough.

Down to 37F on the car thermo just now. As to the craptitude that is this winter, I started to get really nervous when ORH and Ginxy started mentioning 1982. I was 14 at the time and if I remember correctly, it was pretty crappy. I'm not melting about it yet because I still have 2007 as a memorable comeback but time is running out.
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Some light snow has moved into the Burlington are recently, radar shows the areas being affected:

 

27JAN16A.gif

 

The most recent BTV NWS discussion synopsis mentions this event and the next one toward the end of the week:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

917 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016

 

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT

SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A DUSTING TO A

COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER

CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH

PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AN ALBERTA

CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

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Does anyone know the status of snowcover in New Hampshire south of me? Concord, Manchester, Nashua?

Thanks

I'm not far from MHT and the exposed areas are taking a beating, lots of bare ground. Still a couple inches in the shade/woods, but its becoming more patchy.

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Good snow squalls moving through.  Temp dropped from 38 to 31F.   Sticking to everything.  Looks like about 1/4".  Skies brightening west but 15 minute period of heavy snow.

 

Thanks for all your snow reports.  With lots of sun the next 6 days and temperatures approaching the 40's early next week the snow line is going to get almost to the Southern Whites.  Glaciated snow is harder to melt so the north slopes and woods will keep some but most open flat areas will be bare ground.  Dangerous ice conditions too.

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Here is a one minute time lapse of the squalls coming through.  I can edit what I said about 1/8 mile visibility it was more like 1/4 mile. The time lapse makes it look like the heavier stuff lasts about 1 minute while in reality it was about 15 minutes.

 

https://video.nest.com/clip/14ec723f51564169a3e71058a24681f6.mp4

 

 

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Here is a one minute time lapse of the squalls coming through.  I can edit what I said about 1/8 mile visibility it was more like 1/4 mile. The time lapse makes it look like the heavier stuff lasts about 1 minute while in reality it was about 15 minutes.

 

https://video.nest.com/clip/14ec723f51564169a3e71058a24681f6.mp4

 

Awesome!  Looks like that downslopes from right to left on that camera view?  Seems like early on there's clouds streaming in from the right but they are dissipating on the left side of the screen. 

 

Quick question: How far away is that tree-line on your property?  Is that a quarter mile?

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