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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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0f here. Beautiful out.

Postmortem on the storm, it ain't over till it's over. That's two storms a year apart almost to the day that the euro and the globals have pretty much **** the bed on the sensible weather details. And I got fringed at home again. About 12" down there. Hudson valley snow hole. I realize being "due" isn't a scientific assessment, but at some point the law of averages has to kick in and interior eastern ny and western ne has to cash in. So we go that going for us, which is nice.

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Well, been pretty epic down here in SEPA. 28".

Now have to head back to reality to the land of pennies and nickels and endless string of 1.1" snowfalls. 2016-01-24 09.50.37.jpg 2016-01-24 09.26.25.jpg

lol love what we've become in NNE... "I went to PA to find snow but now have to head back to reality in Vermont where it doesn't snow anymore."

Awesome photos, great chasing. I would've gone to my sisters in NYC West Side if it wasn't for the weekend. In the Ski Industry you cant get weekends off from Nov-Apr haha.

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Nice Sat.  view of the storm we missed.   You can clearly see the older snow in C/NNE.  Almost no snow in Western Mass.  Modles did really well with predicting the northern extent of the storm.  Snow line seems to be right about where models were keying in days before.

 

Beautiful clear day, light winds.  The lower bay of Newfound has frozen over to the point there are lots of people out ice fishing today.  Like to take the drone and fly it over them across the bay.  Knowing what people think about drones I'm sure one of the locals would have no problem shooting it down.  

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lol love what we've become in NNE... "I went to PA to find snow but now have to head back to reality in Vermont where it doesn't snow anymore."

Awesome photos, great chasing. I would've gone to my sisters in NYC West Side if it wasn't for the weekend. In the Ski Industry you cant get weekends off from Nov-Apr haha.

I know, never thought I would move to VT and then the next year have to chase in PA. Still time for a bomb in CNE/NNE, hopefully.

Might be a while before I get back to VT. 3 days and no plow in sight. Standing in the Cul-de-sac taking this pic. post-10812-0-02907100-1453662897_thumb.j

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I know, never thought I would move to VT and then the next year have to chase in PA. Still time for a bomb in CNE/NNE, hopefully.

Might be a while before I get back to VT. 3 days and no plow in sight. Standing in the Cul-de-sac taking this pic. attachicon.gif2016-01-24 12.39.51.jpg

 

I don't think anything historic is in the cards up here. I'll settle for just one, yes just one warning level snowfall at this point. On a side note tonight we picked up a surprise 0.5-0.75" of fluff. 

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

I noticed that the temperature was up near 20 F around midnight, and I was curious if it was just because it was cloudy, or if there was something else going on.  It turned out to be snowing, and it was pretty much unexpected as others on here noted.  The BTV NWS says it was due to a weak upper level disturbance.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 14.2 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

 

It looks like a couple of additional systems are expected to affect the area this week, with one in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, and another Thursday/Friday with additional snow showers over the weekend.  Models are also showing potential activity at the beginning of next week.

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I don't think anything historic is in the cards up here. I'll settle for just one, yes just one warning level snowfall at this point. On a side note tonight we picked up a surprise 0.5-0.75" of fluff.

BTV has actually had 3 of its top 4 snowstorms in the past 9 years--2007,2010,2011-so relatively recent. Most recent bigger one is 18" in march 2014.

ALY on the other hand has not had a top 20 snowstorm in the past 13 years,let alone top 10. There have been a few bigger ones that have been more elevation dependent since then, but the airport and lower elevations no.

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Gotta snow sometime, haha.  At the mountain we are still 150" away from just hitting the LOWEST winter snow total I've ever experienced up here since 2003.

 

Only 240" more to go to get to average snow for the season with about 13 weeks left...only have to average 20" a week from here on out!

 

My current 21.2" total is 2nd worst YTD of 18 winters, besting only 06-07's 19.0" (and we know how that season turned out for the E half of NNE.)  Though something interesting could pop up with just a few days notice, current models appear to have this year sink to the bottom over the next 1.5 weeks.

 

Edit:  This winter also has a sizable head start for beating 09-10 and 11-12 as mildest DJFM.

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My current 21.2" total is 2nd worst YTD of 18 winters, besting only 06-07's 19.0" (and we know how that season turned out for the E half of NNE.) Though something interesting could pop up with just a few days notice, current models appear to have this year sink to the bottom over the next 1.5 weeks.

Edit: This winter also has a sizable head start for beating 09-10 and 11-12 as mildest DJFM.

Definitely going to be a struggle to get near average...not unheard of but it needs to start breaking right for most of us on every single event like Jan 15-Apr 15, 2007.

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This winter has sure been boring weather wise.  I know you Vermont guys have upslope squalls to look forward to from time to time.  Other than one storm of 6" just nickels and dimes for me.  Grass is starting to show on south facing slopes.

 

Spoke to the folks who live in the NW Baltimore suburbs.  As of 3pm today  (Monday)  not one plow has come through since the snow started. He lives in a pretty thickly dense suburbs only 2 or 3 miles from the city line.  It will be interesting to see how long it takes.  Last time they could leave was Friday afternoon. Dad's 84 and not to good with the phone's camera I guess.  I see more of his thumb than anything!

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Since there is so little to talk about weather wise here is a video from today.  Decided to buzz the bob houses on Newfound Lake. Video is kind of boring,  I should start editing these.   It's easy to survey the ice conditions with the drone.  Only the southern bay of Newfound is frozen.  I don't think I have ever seen so much of the lake open so late in the season.  The whole lake is ready to "catch" as many of the protected parts have skims of ice.  We just have not had calm nights.  That looks to change but every day will get above freezing so it will be interesting to see what happens.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBSRQLZ1wb4

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