NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

[whitemountainhiker]

Been awhile since I have posted!  Here is a pic from Moose Mtn in Hanover.

 

1800 ft two inches of snow

 

 

[dendrite]

Nice pics all. Just rain here.

[dryslot]

And more rain

[powderfreak]

Here's a pic someone posted on BTV's FB page from 1500ft in Barton, VT of 3" new snow. That seemed to be the magic number today...1500ft and higher.

[powderfreak]

A little pulse up on radar...looks good for the resorts.

 

[powderfreak]

4 dense inches total at 1,550ft... I can pretty much walk on this stuff now that the temp cooled off and all the moisture from yesterday is locking up.  The snowbanks look huge for just 4", haha.  I bet there's over a half inch of liquid in that. 

 

[J.Spin]

4 dense inches total at 1,550ft... I can pretty much walk on this stuff now that the temp cooled off and all the moisture from yesterday is locking up.  The snowbanks look huge for just 4", haha.  I bet there's over a half inch of liquid in that.

 

Sounds great PF; we got close to an additional third of an inch of liquid at the house from yesterday’s rain/mix, so I suspected spots at elevation would be doing well. 

 

Below I’ve got the north to south listing of some totals from the Vermont ski areas that I’ve seen so far:

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 5”

Sugarbush: 3”

Killington: 1”

Stratton: 2”

 

It looks like one of those typical north to south gradients, as one would probably expect from this type of event.

 

There’s no accumulation to report from down at our elevation other than a trace, but we did pick up almost an inch and a half of liquid from the event, so that’s a good way to kick off the month.  The models suggest it’s probably a week or so before the chance for the next substantial system, but it looks like we’ll have some nice weather to enjoy until then.  I’m seeing lows in the 20s F for the mountains, so I guess snowmaking will continue to roll along as well.

[dryslot]

000

NOUS41 KCAR 041131

PNSCAR

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-030053--042331-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

631 AM EST FRI DEC 04 2015

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION

IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...CWOP

OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...FACEBOOK FANS...AND MEDIA FOR THESE

REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT

WEATHER.GOV/CARIBOU

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

MAINE

...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

BLAINE 8.5 1145 PM 12/03 SOCIAL MEDIA

5 WSW MAPLETON 8.0 1158 PM 12/03 PUBLIC

2 NE FORT FAIRFIELD 6.5 1217 AM 12/04 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 S HOULTON 6.0 618 AM 12/04 TRAINED SPOTTER

4 SE PRESQUE ISLE 5.5 1150 PM 12/03 SOCIAL MEDIA

1 N PRESQUE ISLE 5.0 1157 PM 12/03 WAGM

3 W STOCKHOLM 4.0 1146 PM 12/03 SOCIAL MEDIA

2 SSE ASHLAND 4.0 630 AM 12/04 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNW CARIBOU 3.1 1128 PM 12/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

4 ENE NEW SWEDEN 2.5 1025 PM 12/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PENOBSCOT COUNTY...

4 NE LINCOLN 0.6 500 AM 12/04 COCORAHS

...PISCATAQUIS COUNTY...

2 SSE KINGSBURY 2.5 614 AM 12/04 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

VANCEBORO 4.0 100 AM 12/04 PUBLIC

GRAND LAKE STREAM 1.3 535 AM 12/04 PUBLIC

4 E EAST MACHIAS 0.3 942 PM 12/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SE COOPER 0.3 600 AM 12/04 COCORAHS

[tamarack]

Central Aroostook special, just as CAR had forecast.  Wife reported some lovely feathers 11-noon yesterday, no accum, and Mile Hill above 700' elev was still white (<1/2") this morning.  Looks like that will be it for snow here during the 1st half of the month.  (At least)

[powderfreak]

Light snow falling at 1500ft with light snain at 750ft.

Probably last flakes for a while lol.

[eyewall]

Pics I took today as I hiked up the closed section of Rt. 108 into Smuggler's Notch from the Smuggs resort side:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[powderfreak]

Awesome shots eyewall.  Great sharp snow levels.

 

Skiing was good today in those mountains with the 4-5" of snow that fell at both Smuggs and Mansfield.  The Co-Op had 4.5" in the bucket for a storm total.  Was a pretty good sample.

 

Finally some soft turns on the hill.

 

 

[eyewall]

Awesome shots eyewall.  Great sharp snow levels.

 

Skiing was good today in those mountains with the 4-5" of snow that fell at both Smuggs and Mansfield.  The Co-Op had 4.5" in the bucket for a storm total.  Was a pretty good sample.

 

Finally some soft turns on the hill.

 

 

 

Nice! that looks awesome! I was tempted to take a few turns at Smuggs again but the hike was good enough exercise

[powderfreak]

Above the clouds again this morning... cell phone photo, but will have some sweet shots later once I get them off the camera at home.

 

Another brutal day at the office.

 

[CoastalWx]

Looks tough lol. Although won't be pretty over the next week.

[eyewall]

Here is another shot that shows how there were two different worlds in recent days with a very sharp transition between them:

 

[powderfreak]

Looks tough lol. Although won't be pretty over the next week.

May actually be pretty, though as it screams inversions with dirty highs moving through .

[Spanks45]

Here is another shot that shows how there were two different worlds in recent days with a very sharp transition between them:

 

Beautiful shot....I have always been a beach person, but as I get older I could almost settle for living in a spot like that...

[eyewall]

Beautiful shot....I have always been a beach person, but as I get older I could almost settle for living in a spot like that...

 

Thank you. It was definitely interesting out there. I am working real hard not to cliff jump this year but I have a feeling this winter is really going to test me in that regard. Anyway I re-cropped this one:

 

[wxeyeNH]

 

 

Another brutal day at the office.

 

 

PF,  How nervous is management getting with this pattern?  Few inches of snow the other day won't cut it.  So many hours well above freezing has to slow down the snow making operations for the ski resorts.  Its only Dec 5th but the outlook sure looks crappy.  When does the snowless above normal temperatures really start cutting into revenue?  Just an amazingly warm and sunny day down here for December.  It seems to go on and on!

[J.Spin]

PF,  How nervous is management getting with this pattern?  Few inches of snow the other day won't cut it.  So many hours well above freezing has to slow down the snow making operations for the ski resorts.  Its only Dec 5th but the outlook sure looks crappy.  When does the snowless above normal temperatures really start cutting into revenue?  Just an amazingly warm and sunny day down here for December.  It seems to go on and on!

 

From what I’ve heard PF say in the past, it’s big rainstorms that seem to be the major issue, not warm, sunny periods with dry air.  I think they can blow snow just about every night if they want to.  It felt like Rocky Mountain weather out there at elevation today; I’m not sure exactly how dry this air is for snowmaking, but the sunshine was awesome.

[CoastalWx]

May actually be pretty, though as it screams inversions with dirty highs moving through .

You guys should be able to blow anyways.

[mreaves]

On the bright side, I might be able to get the sticks out again and play a few holes.

[J.Spin]

Here’s an update for the North to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for this most recent storm; the additions were very consistent with that north to south trend in the initial list:

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 5”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 3”

Killington: 1”

Stratton: 2”

Mount Snow: 0”

[powderfreak]

PF,  How nervous is management getting with this pattern?  Few inches of snow the other day won't cut it.  So many hours well above freezing has to slow down the snow making operations for the ski resorts.  Its only Dec 5th but the outlook sure looks crappy.  When does the snowless above normal temperatures really start cutting into revenue?  Just an amazingly warm and sunny day down here for December.  It seems to go on and on!

 

Well there is a couple ways of looking at it.  First, it obviously isn't ideal, haha.  This weather pattern will cut into skier visits throughout New England during the month of December, there's no doubt.  However, the larger resorts have this worked into their operations to some degree as the industry expects to have time periods like this (warm weather, slow start to the season, etc)...say it happens 2 or 3 out of 10 years that there's a real poor start to the season through Christmas.  For the larger resorts that don't operate year to year like smaller operations may, this type of variability can be built into the long term expectations.  

 

Yesterday was slamming busy, as like J.Spin said, sunshine this time of year brings them out.  Its like people are just craving Vitamin D.  What also happens in periods like this though is that there are less people skiing on the whole, but those that are skiing are going to the same few resorts.  Sometimes this helps at the expense of the smaller areas that can't compete with snowmaking/grooming or even have to open on natural snow.  Basically there's a smaller pool of skiers/riders in times like this, but they are all going to the same few spots that they know will provide them the best/most skiing given the weather.  So in that way, it actually helps the top-tier resorts, as it sets them apart from even the mid-level players.  Value is also higher at the resorts that make a lot of snow and have solid grooming in these lean times...as when everyone is open with good snow, there are a lot more options available to people.

 

Unfortunately, as always in these weather patterns, the spots that really suffer are the ones that struggle to open at all, like Magic Mtn, Berkshire East, etc.  And those are the smaller spots that often operate on a more year to year basis financially. 

[powderfreak]

Here’s an update for the North to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for this most recent storm; the additions were very consistent with that north to south trend in the initial list:

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 5”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 3”

Killington: 1”

Stratton: 2”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

Yeah that's fairly textbook for what happens on NW upslope...with a gradual increase as you head north.

[Lava Rock]

On the bright side, I might be able to get the sticks out again and play a few holes.

Disgusting

[powderfreak]

Wow at the sea of clouds out there this morning...entire ski area is above the clouds but that is one thick blanket below.  And it also covers the Champlain Valley which is rare for fog on that side of the Spine.  Just another stunning sunny morning in the mountains while its dark and overcast down in the village.

[powderfreak]

Man its still holding at 32F down in town with 1/4-1/2sm vis in fog... while its like in the 40s up here under blinding sunshine.

 

The fog banks around the valleys is holding tough. 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1106 AM EST SUNDAY...IT HAS BECOME CLEAR THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ARE NOT GOING AWAY TODAY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. THE SAME
CAN BE SAID FOR THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...DENSE FOG CONTINUES AND THAT SHOULD
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT NOT ALLOWING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING. EVENTUALLY FOG WILL LIFT AND SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THAT FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE CLOUDS AND FOG
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MAY NOT LEAVE.

[wxeyeNH]

Thanks for the update PF.  On the vis loop you can see the valley fog clearly.  Its only slowly eroding away.