NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 9.5” Snow/0.56” L.E.

 

I was still doing some work at midnight, so I was able to get in an analysis of the snow through the evening at that point.  That was certainly the snowiest period of the event thus far with 4.2 inches over 6 hours, producing an average above 0.5”/hr.  Midnight and morning snow analyses are below:

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 4.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.16 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 26.3

Snow Density: 3.8% H2O

Temperature: 15.6 F

Sky: Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0

Snow Density: 1.3% H2O

Temperature: 15.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

 

The snow was still coming down at a steady light pace, and the radar shows precipitation banked up against the mountains, so there should be a bit more accumulation to report later.

 

[Hitman]

Picked up about 1.5" of fluff at home overnight...actually brings the event total to around 4.5".

 

Up at the mountain there was around 3" on the snow board at the base since 2pm yesterday.  Given the very high winds overnight and what the groomers are saying, we played it safe and went 2-3" overnight and 3-5" in the last 24 hours. 

 

Apparently there is not much snow left on the groomed trails (blown clean of new powder)...but the sheltered stuff and bump runs should ski nicely as they can collect snow a bit better.

 

Jan_20.JPG

I know where that snow blows.

[powderfreak]

I know where that snow blows.

 

Drift outside the office this morning...

 

 

And a friend Dalton Harben posted this photo from the trail between Spruce Peak/Stowe and Smuggs... high winds make big drifts.

 

[Lava Rock]

Imagine how good the skiing/snowmobiling would be be if we got 2-3'. It's frustrating to see that much snow fall down south and hardly get any here. I think we'll head to Pinkham this weekend for some snowshoeing.

[mreaves]

Imagine how good the skiing/snowmobiling would be be if we got 2-3'. It's frustrating to see that much snow fall down south and hardly get any here. I think we'll head to Pinkham this weekend for some snowshoeing.

I ran into a guy at a gas station with a sled on the back of his truck the other night.  I asked him if he ad been able to find some riding and he said that he had just come from Pittsburgh, NH.  he said in town was a bit thin but when you headed out of town towards the Maine border it was pretty good.  Around here, my son put on another 12 miles on his 97 Polaris Indy Lite in our front yard last night lol.

 

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[backedgeapproaching]

Drift outside the office this morning...

 

Drift.JPG

 

And a friend Dalton Harben posted this photo from the trail between Spruce Peak/Stowe and Smuggs... high winds make big drifts.

 

IMG_09061.JPG

nice shots, some deep winter stuff right there.  Maybe not an epic winter so far, but some deep winter happening at least.

[adk]

Hammered by the wind. 

 

That's my summary of this event. 

 

What a difference there is between 20-30mph and 40-60mph winds when it comes to snow movement and snow quality. 

 

Plenty of good turns up there, but wow, plenty of bad turns as well. 

[powderfreak]

Hammered by the wind.

That's my summary of this event.

What a difference there is between 20-30mph and 40-60mph winds when it comes to snow movement and snow quality.

Plenty of good turns up there, but wow, plenty of bad turns as well.

Chin Clip best run the mountain....lots of scour elsewhere.

[powderfreak]

nice shots, some deep winter stuff right there.  Maybe not an epic winter so far, but some deep winter happening at least.

 

Yeah, even a well below normal snowfall season will at least snow *some*. 

[eyewall]

The winter is an F here in the CPV as of now but perhaps a C- or D+ in the mountains? I am hoping we get at least 1 warning level event here before time expires in April. Morale couldn't be much lower for most of the New England weenies right now, especially with the big miss.

[J.Spin]

I’ve tried to put together the list of north to south storm totals for the Vermont ski areas using the available 48 or 72 hour numbers from the resorts:

 

Jay Peak: 10”

Smuggler’s Notch: 20”

Stowe: 14”

Bolton Valley: 18”

Mad River Glen: 16”

Sugarbush: 13”

Pico: 9”

Killington: 9”

Okemo: 6”

Bromley: 4”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 2”

 

I’m sure some of these are off as far as storm totals go because not every resort reported in the same way, but hopefully the list gives the general idea.

 

I can’t quite figure out the Jay Peak total because they’ve got 10” for a 48-hour total, but also the following comment:

 

“This storm's grand total is pushing toward the THREE-FEET mark. Expect to find deep drifts out there with some wind-scoured swaths lurking. The skies have started to clear, but not after having left another 2" of snow since 6:00am this morning.”

 

Presumably they’ve picked up something between 10” and 36” of snow from this storm.

[wxeyeNH]

Boy does Vermont do well with upslope compared to us in NH.  

 

Glad I'm not an on air Met in a place like NYC  With this weekends storm the difference between the have's and have nots is going to be startling.  If you took a run like this the southern parts of NYC metro could have a foot or more while the northern burbs have nothing.  Huge bust potential for millions of people.

[ono]

I’ve tried to put together the list of north to south storm totals for the Vermont ski areas using the available 48 or 72 hour numbers from the resorts:

 

Jay Peak: 10”

 

 

I can’t quite figure out the Jay Peak total because they’ve got 10” for a 48-hour total, but also the following comment:

 

“This storm's grand total is pushing toward the THREE-FEET mark. Expect to find deep drifts out there with some wind-scoured swaths lurking. The skies have started to clear, but not after having left another 2" of snow since 6:00am this morning.”

 

Presumably they’ve picked up something between 10” and 36” of snow from this storm.

I can't figure out that either. It seemed as though they reported some low numbers with wind, and then came out with that 3' figure this morning.  Underreporting due to wind- ok. But checking their reports daily, it seems like a jump. Unless they're considering everything over the last week- then maybe that makes sense, but it was more than one storm.

[powderfreak]

I can't figure out that either. It seemed as though they reported some low numbers with wind, and then came out with that 3' figure this morning. Underreporting due to wind- ok. But checking their reports daily, it seems like a jump. Unless they're considering everything over the last week- then maybe that makes sense, but it was more than one storm.

To me it sounded like they were counting the entire weekly total as one storm. Because their comment sort of matches the seven day total.

Over the three days it was definitely a more blocked flow event, so not that surprising Smuggs had about a half foot more than us in total (like 14 vs 20")....we had done better than them in some of the more westerly events but they definitely do better in the blocked NNW flow events.

I think the main reason isn't necessarily amount of precip but how it falls...they'll get much better dendrites and be more sheltered from the wind in those events, whereas the ridgetop inversion causes incredible east side wind which flows down the mountain like water over a rock in a stream...and in general is not good for accumulations.

[eyewall]

Wow at those mountain totals. I wasn't expecting quite that much.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Wow at those mountain totals. I wasn't expecting quite that much.

Yeah, that's encouraging for me since S. VT has had it rough. Stratton, Bromley and Mt Snow could use a burial.

Not surprising Ascutney went out of business, it's been a rough stretch. Lol.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 11.2” Snow/0.59” L.E.

 

With today’s clearing, this marks the end of this most recent event.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 56.7

Snow Density: 1.8% H2O

Temperature: 14.9 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

[powderfreak]

Event totals: 11.2” Snow/0.59” L.E.

 

With today’s clearing, this marks the end of this most recent event.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 56.7

Snow Density: 1.8% H2O

Temperature: 14.9 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

 

Wow, you doubled me up on this event.  I was at 5.7" when it cleared yesterday afternoon.  This was definitely a western slope to Spine event.

 

These maps are good to keep a visual record of the event...of course this is only part-two of the event, the upslope portion.

 

 

 

 

Regarding snow depth, an interesting milestone was set in that snow depth reached double digits.  10" for Stowe Village and 11" for J.Spin and just a few other spots around the Northern Greens, it was the first climate report with some double digit snow depths in the towns around here.

 

[Hitman]

I promised myself I would be optimistic and keep my cool about this weekend storm, but this is ridiculous. What does a guy have to do to get some snow. Upton just put up blizzard warnings for the entire NYC metro, except, you guessed it, where I am north of the city. I mean, for the love of all that is good in this universe, can I once catch a freakin break. And for this thing to hit south of here just adds insult to injury. I've been faithfully doing whatever I can do improve my mojo, and 'nothing, nada, zilch. And today I'm going to be fielding snow inquiries from everyone around here, if one of these people complains, I'm going to punch them in the face.

[powderfreak]

I promised myself I would be optimistic and keep my cool about this weekend storm, but this is ridiculous. What does a guy have to do to get some snow. Upton just put up blizzard warnings for the entire NYC metro, except, you guessed it, where I am north of the city. I mean, for the love of all that is good in this universe, can I once catch a freakin break. And for this thing to hit south of here just adds insult to injury. I've been faithfully doing whatever I can do improve my mojo, and 'nothing, nada, zilch. And today I'm going to be fielding snow inquiries from everyone around here, if one of these people complains, I'm going to punch them in the face.

 

haha, its been a rough stretch for the ALB and BTV warning areas for a big synoptic snowstorm the past 3-4 winters relatively speaking to what has transpired east and south of us.

[CoastalWx]

Sweet stuff Jspin. At least you guys have upslope to fall back on.

[mreaves]

Sweet stuff Jspin. At least you guys have upslope to fall back on.

Yes, that thin strip 15 miles wide and 50 miles long is doing ok

[powderfreak]

Yes, that thin strip 15 miles wide and 50 miles long is doing ok

I bet it's very equal relative to normal than other areas of VT, if not even lower relative to normal due to the high average.

[klw]

I had about .1 last night with some drifts up to .2!  Top that DC!

[J.Spin]

Wow, you doubled me up on this event.  I was at 5.7" when it cleared yesterday afternoon.  This was definitely a western slope to Spine event.

 

These maps are good to keep a visual record of the event...of course this is only part-two of the event, the upslope portion.

 

 

 

Regarding snow depth, an interesting milestone was set in that snow depth reached double digits.  10" for Stowe Village and 11" for J.Spin and just a few other spots around the Northern Greens, it was the first climate report with some double digit snow depths in the towns around here.

 

 

 

Yes, thanks for getting these for the record.  Typically when I keep all the images in the quotes it’s because I’m uploading them to my server and displaying them from that link so that we’ve got them when we need them in the future.  I find that if you go back even a few months, all the in-line images using space on the AmWx server are gone, which pretty much kills the utility with respect to archival.

 

Anyway, it was a decent event and I think the Winter Weather Advisories were warranted – I had to run the snow thrower last night to finally clear the storm away, and that’s certainly a sign when we have to clear the driveway instead of just compressing the snow to serve as a base.  Somewhere in the 1/3” to 1/2” of liquid range seems to be where you can tell it needs to be done, and this event certainly surpassed that.

 

It has been nice to get some of that upslope magic back in this generally lackluster season.  The past few days have been interesting from a seasonal snowfall perspective – from my data it’s evident that 2015-2016 is trying to keep pace with 2006-2007.  This season had just about passed 2006-2007 as of the 18^th, but ‘06-‘07 had a decent event during this period of just over a foot that kept it moving.  The rest of January 2007 was pretty slow though, so that may give this season another shot to catch up.  As of the 21^st of January, ‘06-‘07 was at 46.3”, and this season is at 37.9”, so 8.4” behind.

 

With a nod to just how poor January has been with regard to snowfall around here in the past few seasons, at only 23.6” thus far, this January has already surpassed the totals for the entire months of January 2013 and January 2014.

 

From what I’ve seen on the models, it looks like the next potential shot of snow would be around Tuesday.

[mreaves]

Yes, that thin strip 15 miles wide and 50 miles long is doing ok

 

I bet it's very equal relative to normal than other areas of VT, if not even lower relative to normal due to the high average.

Oh, I know.  I'm just feeling a bit glum in general.

[eyewall]

haha, its been a rough stretch for the ALB and BTV warning areas for a big synoptic snowstorm the past 3-4 winters relatively speaking to what has transpired east and south of us.

 

And the models don't point to anything better for now it seems.

[Hitman]

And the models don't point to anything better for now it seems.

someone with better luck, should start a new thread.  this one is cursed.

[wxeyeNH]

And the models don't point to anything better for now it seems.

12 years ago when I sold my Boston business I decided to move north because of my passion for storms, winter storms in particular.  2008 was a great year, synoptic snow so high I could not see out of my kitchen sliders.  The past few years its seems that I am always on the edge.  Lots of 8" storms but no powerhouse blizzards.  Last year was really frustrating.  Heavy snow was always 25 or 50 miles to my south.  All and all I love where I live for cold air damming and snow that has staying power.  Miss the squalls that PF gets constantly.  To commemorate my 2008 winter I attached a few pictures...My folks live in Baltimore and my brother in DC.  Good luck to them, they also have had their share of blizzards the past 10 years 

[J.Spin]

Sweet stuff Jspin. At least you guys have upslope to fall back on.

 

Yes, that thin strip 15 miles wide and 50 miles long is doing ok

 

I bet it's very equal relative to normal than other areas of VT, if not even lower relative to normal due to the high average.

 

Yeah, I just checked my data, and even with close to a foot from this last event, all it did was raise the snowfall at our site from ~44% of average to ~47% of average for the date.  I’m not sure how that compares to other areas around, but it’s higher than when I’d last checked, so it’s possible we’re doing a bit better than some of the surrounding areas.  We’re still in the bottom ~5% of seasons according to my statistics, although that is an improvement from when the data were indicating that we were in the bottom 2 to 3% of seasons.

 

It’s interesting, I know the Northern Greens upslope zone is very resistant to extremes of snowfall (we’ve talked about how it’s essentially impossible for us to get the 200 to 250% of normal that some places down south achieved last season).  So we should be protected on the other end as well with respect to extremely low snowfall seasons.  It’s hard to feel like that works when monthly snowfall numbers up here are so large, and when you miss out on months like November/December you wonder where that extra 50 inches of snow is going to come from to make up the huge deficits (vs. a place that might average 10” in December – you feel like you could make that up in one storm).  But I guess events like the one we just had are how it’s done at the seasonal level – Mother Nature’s safety net in action.