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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

klw

By klw,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Had 1.1" last night when I went to bed, which settled to 0.8" this morning. This had to be the 40:1 type stuff as just breathing cleaned my car off.

A little more than 2" overnight at 1,500ft settled on the board.

First shift grooming reported as much as 6" up high around 10pm, but they say after some wind and settling that 4" would be a good place to start for the early report.

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted

Had 1.1" last night when I went to bed, which settled to 0.8" this morning. This had to be the 40:1 type stuff as just breathing cleaned my car off.

A little more than 2" overnight at 1,500ft settled on the board.

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

First shift grooming reported as much as 6" up high around 10pm, but they say after some wind and settling that 4" would be a good place to start for the early report.

Great. We accumulate.
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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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Nice little band into the Mansfield/Smugglers Notch area to the north, and then another one into the Bolton/J.Spin area to the south.  Just flurries here but wonder if J.Spin can pull a some fluffy accumulation out of this.

 

There was actually just a tenth of an inch of accumulation at our location.  It seemed like there might have been a bit more accumulation in the center of Waterbury, so perhaps things were blowing downstream of our spot.  Morning observations are below:

 

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 17.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

There was actually just a tenth of an inch of accumulation at our location. It seemed like there might have been a bit more accumulation in the center of Waterbury, so perhaps things were blowing downstream of our spot. Morning observations are below:

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 17.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Fascinating...when I saw Bolton with 4" this morning I figured you got in on that.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

remarkable how similar this season has been to '06-'07.  lets hope this one plays out the way that one did down the stretch.

 

It is looking similar so far, though I think the change from warm to cold temps in 2007 was far more dramatic than this year's will be.  For January 1-15, 2007 my avg was 26.0, which was 10.0 AN.  For 16-31 the avg was 5.7, which was 5.9 BN.  No such 20F plummets on the 16-day.  2007 went on to have my then-coldest Feb (now a distant 2nd to last year) and coldest April plus a modestly BN March.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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Fascinating...when I saw Bolton with 4" this morning I figured you got in on that.

 

Wow, I had no idea they’d picked up much of anything – my usual tip off to check the report is what happens at our house since our snowfall is often fairly well in synch.  A quick look at reported totals suggests that the Bolton-Mansfield stretch of the spine was the hotspot.  North to south listing of reported 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas is below:

 

Jay Peak: 2”

Burke: 0”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 0”

Sugarbush: 0”

Middlebury: 1”

Suicide Six: 0”

Pico: 1”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Maybe I could manage 6" with tomorrow's storm.  Perhaps with a bit of elevation my ratio's might be better or am I just grasping at straws?

 

With such a marginal column everywhere, I wouldn't count on ratios.  The only thing helping ratios I could see in the marginal column will be aggregation causing big flakes.  But the set-up smacks of lower than climo normal ratios (which I think are like 13:1 in most NNE studies).

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

Eyewall,  Great picture.   It's like a whole new photography world opened up.  going to head out soon and fly close to treetop level and try to find where the deer yard is.

They probably won't yarded up because there isn't much snow on the ground.  They are still free to go wherever they want to find food.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Wow, I had no idea they’d picked up much of anything – my usual tip off to check the report is what happens at our house since our snowfall is often fairly well in synch.  A quick look at reported totals suggests that the Bolton-Mansfield stretch of the spine was the hotspot.  North to south listing of reported 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas is below:

 

Jay Peak: 2”

Burke: 0”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 0”

Sugarbush: 0”

Middlebury: 1”

Suicide Six: 0”

Pico: 1”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

Yeah that's amazing...you are like right downwind of Bolton on a NW flow, but I did see Waterbury Center had 1.5" so must've drifted just north of you.

 

Today there was 4-4.5" of just total fluff on the upper mountain.  You can tell by the tracks and the look of it that its that very high ratio light wind upslope fluff.

 

 

Some good riding conditions out there today.

 

4-inches-of-new-snow-overnight-led-to-so

 

First-tracks-this-morning.jpg

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Sunday night into Monday morning is looking pretty nice right now.  The models have been very consistent with this for the past 24 hours.

 

Every major model is pretty much dead on nuts the same with their solutions, which is also scary because something must go wrong, lol.

 

Anyway, figure its a good event to talk about in this thread because it won't get much play elsewhere.

 

A little clipper that turns sort of inverted trough-ish but not excessively so...most QPF is fairly light in the 0.15-0.4" range but its very cold with H85 temps falling through the negative teens and even into the negative 20s behind the clipper.  These events have high-ratio snow written all over it.

 

24 hour GFS total QPF:

 

 

24 hour NAM QPF:

 

 

Can't get 24 hour total for GGEM but the idea is very similar moving from northern NY, through N.VT and into NH/ME.

 

 

 

I'd post the EURO but can't do that...either way its also similar with a stripe of 0.15-0.30" from northern VT SEward through the Lakes Region of NH.

 

Either way, very good model consensus on this one for short lead time.  If ratios work out in this cold profile, could get low end advisory snow.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Sunday night into Monday morning is looking pretty nice right now.  The models have been very consistent with this for the past 24 hours.

 

Every major model is pretty much dead on nuts the same with their solutions, which is also scary because something must go wrong, lol.

 

Anyway, figure its a good event to talk about in this thread because it won't get much play elsewhere.

 

A little clipper that turns sort of inverted trough-ish but not excessively so...most QPF is fairly light in the 0.15-0.4" range but its very cold with H85 temps falling through the negative teens and even into the negative 20s behind the clipper.  These events have high-ratio snow written all over it.

 

24 hour GFS total QPF:

 

attachicon.gifSundayNight.png

 

24 hour NAM QPF:

 

attachicon.gifNAM.png

 

Can't get 24 hour total for GGEM but the idea is very similar moving from northern NY, through N.VT and into NH/ME.

 

attachicon.gifGGEM1.png

 

attachicon.gifGGEM2.png

 

I'd post the EURO but can't do that...either way its also similar with a stripe of 0.15-0.30" from northern VT SEward through the Lakes Region of NH.

 

Either way, very good model consensus on this one for short lead time.  If ratios work out in this cold profile, could get low end advisory snow.

 

I'm literally taking the inverted trough climo there and keeping my highest PoP and QPF near the NH border.

 

Someone might get a nice snowfall out of it, but we probably won't know who until 6 hours out.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I'm literally taking the inverted trough climo there and keeping my highest PoP and QPF near the NH border.

 

Someone might get a nice snowfall out of it, but we probably won't know who until 6 hours out.

 

Is it really an inverted trough?  There is some bagginess to the isobars, but looks more like a clipper or piece of vorticity moving through the flow ahead of the trough.  Or are you saying potentially bigger than a fluffy 2-5" for someone closer to the coast if an inverted can really get cranking? 

 

The consensus is really good right now overall from all the models, odd for 36 hours out.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Is it really an inverted trough?  There is some bagginess to the isobars, but looks more like a clipper or piece of vorticity moving through the flow ahead of the trough.  Or are you saying potentially bigger than a fluffy 2-5" for someone closer to the coast if an inverted can really get cranking? 

 

The consensus is really good right now overall from all the models, odd for 36 hours out.

 

I mean yes technically it's an inverted trough. As that vort moves overhead it will drop pressures NW of that ocean going low pressure. That should be enough to concentrate snowfall in an overall background pattern of widespread snow showers.

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adk

adk

Posted
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Yea, I think tonight into sunday AM could also produce a 3-5" fluff event across the highest terrain of the greens and then another 4-6" type event sunday into Monday. 

 

With a little warming today, the concrete bases should also bond up with the new snow and form a nice new surface for new snow. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Yea, I think tonight into sunday AM could also produce a 3-5" fluff event across the highest terrain of the greens and then another 4-6" type event sunday into Monday.

With a little warming today, the concrete bases should also bond up with the new snow and form a nice new surface for new snow.

Coming down steadily up here...pasting to all the tree branches and stuff.

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