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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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All done unless we get something more from the stuff in NY state.   2.5"  of which 1" or so fell in about 20-30 minutes around 7:30pm.   Noted that Dendrite got about an inch less and he's about 25 miles to my SSE.   Will be interesting to see what eek gets as everything was intensifying rapidly as it moved east.

 

Next......

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Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 22.2

Snow Density: 4.5% H2O

Temperature: 23.4 F

Sky: Snow (2-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

 

We’ve had roughly another inch since 6:00 P.M. observations.  It seems to be of roughly the same density as what we’ve has so far, but I’ll check that in the next analysis.

 

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Went for a drive down to Jeffersonville- not much down there beyond a dusting to an inch maybe- though my car was dusted after 10 mins. Drove back up to the where 108 is closed off at the top of the notch- considerably more snow on the road up past the Smuggs village.  ~2" on the ground there. Seemed density increased overall from what was falling earlier- possibly wind-affected and/or lower grain size, but the ~2" seemed pretty consistent. Not fluff/blower, but dry all the same.  

 

It was still snowing lightly up in the notch and the road slow going, but it's definitely slowed and the stars are visible here in the village now.  Will call a rough 2" here, with no wind now.  We'll see if the stuff in NY makes its way over here. 

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Looks like there's some southerly and westerly moisture converging along the CPV... pretty cool. See where this goes. Don't remember how to link the wunderground radar here... but it's looking like a squall line.

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Looks like there's some southerly and westerly moisture converging along the CPV... pretty cool. See where this goes. Don't remember how to link the wunderground radar here... but it's looking like a squall line.

I will let you know. Very interesting indeed.

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I will let you know. Very interesting indeed.

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

 

Seems like some of the residual squall line moisture from the west came in on the radar, and converged with a southerly batch coming up the CPV as we speak. Some 30 dbz returns on the radar. Interesting. The top of mansfield shows NW winds... So figure that in with a 0.5 reported froude.  Don't know if it'll make it over the ridge here in Smuggs village- but light snow right now.  Radar shows the ridge getting hit hard.

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Seems like some of the residual squall line moisture from the west came in on the radar, and converged with a southerly batch coming up the CPV as we speak. Some 30 dbz returns on the radar. Interesting. The top of mansfield shows NW winds... So figure that in with a 0.5 reported froude. Don't know if it'll make it over the ridge here in Smuggs village- but light snow right now. Radar shows the ridge getting hit hard.

Yeah nothing extreme here as of now but decent flakes flying now. The heaviest may miss me within 5 miles. Interesting to note the lower froude.

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Wow. The radar shows the CPV getting lit up.  Burlington up through Colchester... It it's making it to the ground, pretty wild.

 

Snow has picked up here at Smuggs, coming straight down. But nothing crazy.  Nice night.

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Wow. The radar shows the CPV getting lit up. Burlington up through Colchester... It it's making it to the ground, pretty wild.

Snow has picked up here at Smuggs, coming straight down. But nothing crazy. Nice night.

I am in Winooski and it was only moderate for a minute or two. Main vis reduction was from blowing snow. It is already tapering off.

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Kinda dumping here. well over 1"/hr briefly. See what tomorrow brings...

 

Yeah I'll say....4-5" base area total so far and groomers are saying 6-8" upper mountain.  I played it 4-6" for now but will check upper stake when I go out shortly.

 

Dumping still.  There are some monster drifts.  Just walking to the base stake I was going through knee to thigh deep fluff on the breakovers.

 

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Event totals: 7.3” Snow/0.30” L.E.

 

I was surprised when I looked out around midnight and saw the stack that was on the snowboard, but presumably it was from those bands that were headed eastward from New York State.  Details from the 12:00 A.M. and 6:00 A.M observations are below.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 3.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.18 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 21.7

Snow Density: 4.6% H2O

Temperature: 23.7 F

Sky: Snow (1-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 46.7

Snow Density: 2.1% H2O

Temperature: 21.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

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The Euro and GFS are now almost a complete miss with the coastal for this weekend. Whatever we get will be tied more so to the weakening inland low as per latest runs and that wouldn't be much, probably a dusting. It is another good one for eastern ME.

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bumping my post from the other thread.  why does gyx seem so snow friendly this morn?

 

Reading this I was quite surprised how optimistic GYX was this morning.  All snow in my forecast 80% snow likely.  Mentioned mixed precip near the coast and in southern NH.  I saw Ekster's name on the short term but it was another guy on long range.  What I am reading in here indicates that the temps aloft will not support snow, or at least all snow.   The guy on the long term was also honking a bit for Sunday night.  Here it is:

 

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN INTERESTING SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO A BUILDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AROUND 110W. IT
BEGINS WITH A SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE THAT GETS EJECTED NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
SHORT WAVE BEING DRIVEN EAST DUE TO THE BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE.
THIS RESULTS IN A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WHICH WILL SPAWN STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL BE CRITICAL ON
HOW MUCH QPF REACHES THE AREA. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE PTYPE SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SAT/SAT NIGHT EXCEPT A MIX ALONG THE
COAST.
 FOR NOW HIGH POPS FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT APPEAR TO REFLECT
LIKELYHOOD OF AN EVENT BUT THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ON AMOUNTS.
MODELS DIFFER SOME ON POSITIONING OF TRACK SO CONFIDENCE ON TRYING
TO FIGURE ANY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE SAT NIGHT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SHORT DRIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY CAUSING
THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROF POSITION TO MAKE A SHIFT TO THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE AS PLENTY OF SENSIBLE/LATENT
HEAT RELEASE WILL BE AT THE READY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CONSIDERING THE VERY STRONG AMPLITUDE AND POTENTIAL NEGATIVE TILT
THAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS TROF BY SUN NIGHT. PREFER THE MORE
PRONOUNCED EURO SOLUTION VS THE LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE GFS AND A
FEW OTHER MODELS. SO FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH TRENDS OF MODELS AND BROADBRUSH FOR NOW.

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I should add the BTV discussion is also painful to read this morning and mentions the p-type concerns I had earlier in the week:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT 500MB
WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW AROUND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WHILE STRENGTHENING
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE VA/OBX COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TRACK OF BOTH
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY LOWS. GFS KEEPS COASTAL LOW NEAR THE 40/70
BENCHMARK, WHILE NAM AND ECMWF TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST. REGARDING
THE PRIMARY LOW, IT DOES WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN MORE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. WITH LACK OF BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE, LIMITED COLD AIR
WILL BE AVAILABLE AS MODELS TREND WARMER SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD
SEE RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RANGING FORM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.


PWATS WILL BE AROUND HALF AN INCH WITH BEST DEFORMATION AROUND
THE COASTAL LOW. THE GREATEST IMPACTS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST, ANOTHER 500MB LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST KEEPING CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

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Event totals: 7.3” Snow/0.30” L.E.

 

I was surprised when I looked out around midnight and saw the stack that was on the snowboard, but presumably it was from those bands that were headed eastward from New York State.  Details from the 12:00 A.M. and 6:00 A.M observations are below.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 3.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.18 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 21.7

Snow Density: 4.6% H2O

Temperature: 23.7 F

Sky: Snow (1-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 46.7

Snow Density: 2.1% H2O

Temperature: 21.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Wow, can't believe you squeezed 7.3 out of that event, nice.

3.3" total here.

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Looked like another inch or so overnight.  I'm going to call it 3" total.  That may be a slightly slantsticked measurement but I need to make the most of this crappy winter.

 

We got a bonus inch out of those snow showers/squalls overnight.

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Sb reporting 9-3-4" from last night.

That worked out ok after all.

 

Their snowfall makes absolutely no sense.  I get it, its windy, but c'mon.  Do you know how confusing that is to the casual observer to have 4" at the base, 3" at mid-mountain, and 9" at the summit? 

 

Its windy here too and I've got around 5" now at 1,550ft and 7.5" at 3,000ft. 

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Their snowfall makes absolutely no sense.  I get it, its windy, but c'mon.  Do you know how confusing that is to the casual observer to have 4" at the base, 3" at mid-mountain, and 9" at the summit? 

 

Its windy here too and I've got around 5" now at 1,550ft and 7.5" at 3,000ft. 

 

Nice! Glad to see you guys cashed in a little. I think Jay was reporting 9-11 inches or so. 

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Interesting storm. Really illustrated to me the value of that -10c 850 line and west winds. That is what makes snow in the Greens. Everything else is just secondary when it comes to making good snow.

Yes. And west flow loads the east side. Radar overnight had the best echoes over the Spine, with downwind drift that radar was a classic east side high elevation dump.

-10C at ridge top gets us the ratios and fluff.

Looks like you enjoyed your run this morning, adk. It was going off. Tons of face shots.

From FamousInternetSkiers:

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