powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 My 9.7" season-to-date is 2nd lowest, slightly under 2007 (11.0") but ahead of 2000 (6.9".) In 2000, I didn't have more than 1" on the ground until the 6.6" dump on Jan. 16. My average thru 1/11 is 29.7". You are about to pass all of us tonight, post some obs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Weenie flakes in the air here for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You are about to pass all of us tonight, post some obs later. Would need 8.5" plus whatever J.Spin measures to pass him. GYX "most likely" map has me in the 6-8" area, which this year would be gold. Almost certainly won't post the new total until tomorrow, as peak intensity here seems to come 00z and afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Snow started 1245pm. The whole sky has become virga as it seems to be blossoming overhead. 23.5F Like to take the drone up but wind seems to be steadily increasing from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 At least for northern VT the over performance usually comes when fronts drop in from the N/W or WNW. That's really ideal for generating orographic lift in saturated environments. When winds have a southerly or easterly component I haven't seen too many real over performers. Right, NVT I know you guys do great on the moist NW flow. Anyway, seems like a SE wind with clipper down here which is no bueno for me. Downslope city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Snow started 1245pm. The whole sky has become virga as it seems to be blossoming overhead. 23.5F Like to take the drone up but wind seems to be steadily increasing from the south. Light snow falling here now. I would love to fly the drone, but definitely too windy for my liking here now. We have a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wyewall, do you have access to the Euro? Does it get the weekend storm up here or is it more suppressed like the 12Z GFS. I guess I can wait and read the model thread don't really like to ask how much in my backyard posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wyewall, do you have access to the Euro? Does it get the weekend storm up here or is it more suppressed like the 12Z GFS. I guess I can wait and read the model thread don't really like to ask how much in my backyard posts! Close to warning criteria up here...although it's spread out with some weenie H5 -SN at the end so we'd probably need 9" for criteria in a 24hr system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wyewall, do you have access to the Euro? Does it get the weekend storm up here or is it more suppressed like the 12Z GFS. I guess I can wait and read the model thread don't really like to ask how much in my backyard posts! The Euro brings the initial low into Ontario as the coastal takes over south of Montauk at 96 hours at 980mb. The coastal then shoots out to the Maritimes but looks elongated which is rather odd (in the 970's). Either way it still has the miller B scenario. It puts down advisory level snows here but near warning criteria in NH/ME. Boston picks up a couple. The GFS has a similar scenario but is more anemic for sure on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Close to warning criteria up here...although it's spread out with some weenie H5 -SN at the end so we'd probably need 9" for criteria in a 24hr system. Thanks Brian. 9" would just be enough to get the snowmobile trails open and some ski slopes that rely on natural snow, especially if we could get a couple inches out of this system first. We still have total snowcover (barely on SW slopes) up here.. For the first time since last spring my pond is bank full. Here's 2 pictures, one before the last rain even and one right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro brings the initial low into Ontario as the coastal takes over south of Montauk at 96 hours at 980mb. The coastal then shoots out to the Maritimes but looks elongated which is rather odd (in the 970's). Either way it still has the miller B scenario. It puts down advisory level snows here but near warning criteria in NH/ME. Boston picks up a couple. Thanks Eyewall. I'll take a 980mb low south of Montauk. Seems a bit too far SE for you but its days away. Meanwhile my vis. is steadily coming down. About 2 miles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Thanks Eyewall. I'll take a 980mb low south of Montauk. Seems a bit too far SE for you but its days away. Meanwhile my vis. is steadily coming down. About 2 miles now. Yeah it could easily be a miss here but I am not ready to make that call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The snow is definitely coming down pretty steadily at the house – looks like it was around a half inch or so as of 2:00 P.M. I’ve got the J&E Productions Live Web Cam running for anyone monitoring accumulations in the area, and I’ll leave that accumulation undisturbed for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nice, light, wintry appeal type snow here in Montpelier. No accumulation like JSpin but was perfect for my lunchtime walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nice, light, wintry appeal type snow here in Montpelier. No accumulation like JSpin but was perfect for my lunchtime walk. Yeah maybe a quarter inch up here... looks like J.Spin's now closing in on his first inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks like about 0.1 or 0.2 here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That is a nice squall line of snow in NY. I wonder if it could make it this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Love how I am surrounded by a winter weather advisory. Red dot is me. I don't understand why the Southern half of Grafton County NH has no advisories but everyone around us does, especially the fact that most of Southern Grafton County has high terrain over 1500 feet. Maybe someone can explain the thinking to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 started snowing around noon here at Smuggs village. Probably 1" up top around 2pm, with a steady light-moderate snow with wind kicking up. Probably about 1" here in the village now in the sheltered areas, though wind is really moving things around. Wouldn't be surprised if there's 2" up top- snow intensity was definitely increasing by elevation. Some of the natural snow trails look pretty beat up with dust-on-crust. A healthy, wind-driven 6-8" is probably necessary to get things back in shape for some spots (the drift-prone areas that fill in and already have a bomber 8-12" base). Other parts of the mountain need a solid 2' to get going. The maintained glades and some of the woods on the upper mountain look more healthy than a lot of the trails that saw the bulk of the traffic. So far, this event is going off as planned. While it looked like it could produce a decent 5-10" (optimistically, of course) yesterday, 4-6" seems likely at the upper elevations (again, being a perpetual snow optimist) at this point unless that squall line pulls in and moisture lingers into tomorrow. Even then, with the wind transport and a little bit of guess work and knowing the mountain, should be easy to find good snow in usual, leeward spots tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 BTV discussion hints at missing a big event this weekend but some accumulating snow. That makes sense with current trends. We may even suffer p-type concerns at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Love how I am surrounded by a winter weather advisory. Red dot is me. I don't understand why the Southern half of Grafton County NH has no advisories but everyone around us does, especially the fact that most of Southern Grafton County has high terrain over 1500 feet. Maybe someone can explain the thinking to meIf they could break up Merrimack into E and W the western half probably wouldn't have one either...late blooming injection low favors E NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 BTV discussion hints at missing a big event this weekend but some accumulating snow. That makes sense with current trends. We may even suffer p-type concerns at the start. POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AS PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ENHANCES ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE UKMET/GEM SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM TRYING TO CAPTURE COASTAL LOW PRES WITH A TRACK FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO THE CAPE COD CANAL BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND BEFORE QUICKLY SHEARING THE SYSTEM OUT TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. ANY SOLUTION SUPPORTS AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN THE PRIMARY TRACK ALONG THE COAST WOULD SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AT THE BEGINNING. so my understanding of the above discussion is, I need to be rooting for ukmet/gem solution over the euro/gfs. What are the chances? can't those models get it right for a change, please. BTw-really appreciate when you (the collective you) who know what's going on, update the NNE thread about storm threats and their impact on NNE. the model threads are so SNE focused, and filled with inside slang, that its hard to derive the sensible weather impacts for NNE. so, thank you all in advance. and let's bring this baby right through the CCC so we can have something to celebrate already and eyewall can get off the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AS PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ENHANCES ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE UKMET/GEM SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM TRYING TO CAPTURE COASTAL LOW PRES WITH A TRACK FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO THE CAPE COD CANAL BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND BEFORE QUICKLY SHEARING THE SYSTEM OUT TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. ANY SOLUTION SUPPORTS AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN THE PRIMARY TRACK ALONG THE COAST WOULD SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AT THE BEGINNING. so my understanding of the above discussion is, I need to be rooting for ukmet/gem solution over the euro/gfs. What are the chances? can't those models get it right for a change, please. BTw-really appreciate when you (the collective you) who know what's going on, update the NNE thread about storm threats and their impact on NNE. the model threads are so SNE focused, and filled with inside slang, that its hard to derive the sensible weather impacts for NNE. so, thank you all in advance. and let's bring this baby right through the CCC so we can have something to celebrate already and eyewall can get off the bridge. Essentially we need this over the Canal....but for years now someone has set up a force field that makes that difficult. The UKMET and GGEM are not the players you want on your team lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Essentially we need this over the Canal....but for years now someone has set up a force field that makes that difficult. The UKMET and GGEM are not the players you want on your team lol. Yea, why can't the Euro and GFS take it through the canal? At this point it's even close for the SVT plateau. Going to need some work for you guys in NVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Based on what I’d seen on our web cam, I was surprised to see almost nothing in terms of accumulation in the Richmond Flats/Bolton Flats areas, but it indeed ramped right up ascending the pass at the Waterbury/Bolton line. Similarly, there was less than ½” of snow on my car at the Waterbury Park and Ride, so right in line with the spine appeared to be pulling in more snow than spots to the east or west. Flakes seem a bit smaller now and I’m sure the fluffy snow is settling, but I did a depth check on the snowboards at 5:00 P.M. and found 1.6” of accumulation. I’ll run a full liquid analysis at 6:00 P.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Essentially we need this over the Canal....but for years now someone has set up a force field that makes that difficult. The UKMET and GGEM are not the players you want on your team lol. but sometimes, the better team loses. see, giants/pats super bowls. that force field wasn't present in '07. we are due, dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Based on what I’d seen on our web cam, I was surprised to see almost nothing in terms of accumulation in the Richmond Flats/Bolton Flats areas, but it indeed ramped right up ascending the pass at the Waterbury/Bolton line. Similarly, there was less than ½” of snow on my car at the Waterbury Park and Ride, so right in line with the spine appeared to be pulling in more snow than spots to the east or west. Flakes seem a bit smaller now and I’m sure the fluffy snow is settling, but I did a depth check on the snowboards at 5:00 P.M. and found 1.6” of accumulation. I’ll run a full liquid analysis at 6:00 P.M. Your location is a grad-student climate study waiting to happen, haha. Maybe a half inch here in Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Your location is a grad-student climate study waiting to happen, haha. Maybe a half inch here in Stowe.Lol and we pretty much pinpointed his backyard with those maps. One day a weenie from SNE will knock on his door asking if the fabled J.Spin is home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Impressive meso in CNY headed to VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 1.9" meh. Waiting to see what the squalls hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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