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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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The main streamer off Lake Ontario is down near Rutland this afternoon, but it’s not a bad flow of moisture into the area at the moment – even snowing here in Burlington right now.

11JAN16A.gif

I'm in Williston and it looks fairly heavy right now between Smuggs/Stowe and Bolton with thick white curtain along the Spine.

Speaking of which, your area and Waterbury definitely had a little more solid coating from this morning's snow showers than we did in Stowe, but also looked like an inch or so less snow left. Hard to tell though.

The big difference is past your house dropping into the Bolton flats....just no snow at all from there to Williston west of the Spine.

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Just drove to PWM for work and got here about 30 mins ago. Regarding snowpack, it was pretty much full coverage the entire drive from my SVT until near MHT where it started getting really thin. Heading east on 101 in NH became nonexistent toward the coast and then nothing the whole drive up 95 toward PWM where its just piles.

Edit:started getting thin near CON actually.

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I'm in Williston and it looks fairly heavy right now between Smuggs/Stowe and Bolton with thick white curtain along the Spine.

 

Speaking of which, your area and Waterbury definitely had a little more solid coating from this morning's snow showers than we did in Stowe, but also looked like an inch or so less snow left. Hard to tell though.

 

The big difference is past your house dropping into the Bolton flats....just no snow at all from there to Williston west of the Spine.

 

Yep, your observations are right on with mine – an inch less at our stake vs. what you reported, and the snowpack really falls off as you drop down from the pass in our area to Bolton Flats.

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The mountains now have advisories for 3-6" with a non-event here in the Valley. I like to see the ski areas getting some new snow though.

 

Yeah, Winter Weather Advisories are up all the way west to the western slopes.  I was surprised to see the advisories posted since I wasn’t quite sure if it was going to hit that level, but it’s got 4-6” of accumulation noted, and that’s great news.  I haven’t seen the discussion text yet, but advisory text and maps are below:

 

VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019-121100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0001.160112T1100Z-160113T1200Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...

STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...

UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

338 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM

EST WEDNESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND THE SPINE OF THE GREEN

  MOUNTAINS.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM TUESDAY

  AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY

  TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

 

* TIMING...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

  CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

* IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

  CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. ROADS WILL BECOME

  SNOW COVERED AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED. ANY UNTREATED

  SURFACES WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY.

 

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 7 TO 17 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOWFALL.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS

AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

11JAN16A.jpg

 

11JAN16B.jpg

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Yeah, Winter Weather Advisories are up all the way west to the western slopes.  I was surprised to see the advisories posted since I wasn’t quite sure if it was going to hit that level, but it’s got 4-6” of accumulation noted, and that’s great news.  I haven’t seen the discussion text yet, but advisory text and maps are below:

 

VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019-121100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0001.160112T1100Z-160113T1200Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...

STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...

UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

338 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM

EST WEDNESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

6 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND THE SPINE OF THE GREEN

  MOUNTAINS.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM TUESDAY

  AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY

  TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

 

* TIMING...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

  CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

* IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

  CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. ROADS WILL BECOME

  SNOW COVERED AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED. ANY UNTREATED

  SURFACES WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY.

 

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 7 TO 17 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOWFALL.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS

AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

11JAN16A.jpg

 

11JAN16B.jpg

 

That map bumps up our less than 2 to 3-4 so I am happy to see that. I guess the point and click didn't catch up yet when I last looked

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That map bumps up our less than 2 to 3-4 so I am happy to see that. I guess the point and click didn't catch up yet when I last looked

 

The Point and Click for Stowe Village at 800ft is showing 4-9".  Maybe with 30:1 or 40:1 ratios?  lol.

 

Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. South wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 18. South wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. West wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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The Point and Click for Stowe Village at 800ft is showing 4-9".  Maybe with 30:1 or 40:1 ratios?  lol.

 

Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. South wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 18. South wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. West wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

 

LOL well nobody is 100% sure how the lake effect moisture will play into this. I think that is where the wrench can be thrown in.

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Haha I personally like over-performing events.  I'd rather see 1-2" forecast and get 4-5" ;).  Much more fun that way than seeing 4-6" forecast and waking up to 1.7". 

or 30"+ to 2"?

 

clippers have a tendency to over perform.

 

I'm hedging about coming up this weekend.  want to see 12"+ including the weekend.

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Be nice to bust high with this event...although would be tough with 4-6 proj.

Had a couple clippers over perform last year IIRC. It seems that there is some type of valley convergence here on a S/SW wind squeezing out moisture between the Greens and Taconics. Will see if we can get the right orographic tunnel flow to maybe inflate a totals a bit.

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Haha I personally like over-performing events.  I'd rather see 1-2" forecast and get 4-5" ;).  Much more fun that way than seeing 4-6" forecast and waking up to 1.7". 

 

I'm with you...this map seems optimistic. The flow is really all wrong for the spine to wring out extra moisture.  I think this is a 3" event for the mountains. The big winner could be like Burke or somewhere in NEVT ...but unlikely the spine.

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Be nice to bust high with this event...although would be tough with 4-6 proj.

Had a couple clippers over perform last year IIRC. It seems that there is some type of valley convergence here on a S/SW wind squeezing out moisture between the Greens and Taconics. Will see if we can get the right orographic tunnel flow to maybe inflate a totals a bit.

 

At least for northern VT the over performance usually comes when fronts drop in from the N/W  or WNW.  That's really ideal for generating orographic lift in saturated environments.  When winds have a southerly or easterly component I haven't seen too many real over performers. 

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Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

After yesterday morning’s snowfall there was an additional 0.1” of accumulation before the lake-effect bands moved southward.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 21.7 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

 

I figured it was a good time to see where seasonal snowfall sits ahead of this next event, and it’s at 28.2% of average as of yesterday, which is 1.83 S.D. below the mean, putting it in the bottom 3-4% of seasons.  As low as the seasonal snowfall is, this actually doesn’t represent the nadir of the season thus far with respect to deviation from the mean because we were sitting at 2.01 S.D. below on December 28th, just ahead of Winter Storm Goliath.

 

At 18.2” so far, this season is easily setting the low bar in my records with respect to total snowfall; the next closest is 2006-2007, which had 26.6” through yesterday.  Surprisingly, that’s only a difference of roughly one decent storm.  Depending on how this week plays out with respect to snowfall, it could actually gain some ground on 2006-2007, which was only at 33.5” of total snowfall as of the 18th of the month.

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I'm with you...this map seems optimistic. The flow is really all wrong for the spine to wring out extra moisture.  I think this is a 3" event for the mountains. The big winner could be like Burke or somewhere in NEVT ...but unlikely the spine.

 

Well I think the Spine in southern VT up through central VT could do ok...that are up into Burke.  But we're splitting hairs. 

 

Totally agree, 3" of fluff for Mansfield is my call by tomorrow midday.

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At 18.2” so far, this season is easily setting the low bar in my records with respect to total snowfall; the next closest is 2006-2007, which had 26.6” through yesterday.  Surprisingly, that’s only a difference of roughly one decent storm.  Depending on how this week plays out with respect to snowfall, it could actually gain some ground on 2006-2007, which was only at 33.5” of total snowfall as of the 18th of the month.

 

Ha, setting all sort of low-bars for winter this year so far.  It really is pretty crazy overall just how bad this winter has been.  You can only laugh.

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Ha, setting all sort of low-bars for winter this year so far.  It really is pretty crazy overall just how bad this winter has been.  You can only laugh.

 

Someone is giving me a ticket for Jay this week, so I will be hitting that mountain for the first time assuming conditions are ok. They should certainly pick up a few inches between now and Thu when I plan on headed up there (my days off Thu/Fri this week). I plan on returning to Stowe probably in Feb.

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Ha, setting all sort of low-bars for winter this year so far.  It really is pretty crazy overall just how bad this winter has been.  You can only laugh.

 

I give it another 30 days. If by this time next month we are still in the "laughably bad" category with nothing coming for Presidents' Day Weekend, I think we'll know it will be a stinker for the ages. Till then, I have vivid memories of 2007 playing in my head, with data from several other years suggesting that we could in for a rocking good time from about 2/1 to 5/1

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At 18.2” so far, this season is easily setting the low bar in my records with respect to total snowfall; the next closest is 2006-2007, which had 26.6” through yesterday.  Surprisingly, that’s only a difference of roughly one decent storm.  Depending on how this week plays out with respect to snowfall, it could actually gain some ground on 2006-2007, which was only at 33.5” of total snowfall as of the 18th of the month.

 

My 9.7" season-to-date is 2nd lowest, slightly under 2007 (11.0") but ahead of 2000 (6.9".)   In 2000, I didn't have more than 1" on the ground until the 6.6" dump on Jan. 16.  My average thru 1/11 is 29.7".

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