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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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The snow has subsided and we’re just back to mostly cloudy conditions now, but all in all a decent day so far with some snowfall and comfortable temperatures in the mid 30s F.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 36.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

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The 12z Euro is horrendous for NNE. The big system for next weekend is OTS and then another tries but hits SE New England before going seaward. It is essentially dry and cold. The GFS loses any meaningful strong system all together but gets some precip up here. All in all runs are far from any blockbuster chances right now.

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The 12z Euro is horrendous for NNE. The big system for next weekend is OTS and then another tries but hits SE New England before going seaward. It is essentially dry and cold. The GFS loses any meaningful strong system all together but gets some precip up here. All in all runs are far from any blockbuster chances right now.

A negative NAO is not a good pattern for NNE
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The 12z Euro is horrendous for NNE. The big system for next weekend is OTS and then another tries but hits SE New England before going seaward. It is essentially dry and cold. The GFS loses any meaningful strong system all together but gets some precip up here. All in all runs are far from any blockbuster chances right now.

Punt January?
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The 12z Euro is horrendous for NNE. The big system for next weekend is OTS and then another tries but hits SE New England before going seaward. It is essentially dry and cold. The GFS loses any meaningful strong system all together but gets some precip up here. All in all runs are far from any blockbuster chances right now.

 

I don’t know eyewall, that all sounds a bit over the top if you ask me.  Is a system on a deterministic model a week out even a thing?  And when ~40% of the ECMWF panels for the next week show some sort of snow in NVT, I’m not sure I’d describe that as “essentially dry and cold”.

 

I don’t think your description jives with what the BTV NWS has in this evening’s synopsis, or Powderfreak’s recent thoughts:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

639 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

 

.SYNOPSIS...

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR NORMAL AND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

 

Yeah I'm optimistic for next week and beyond if we are in a cold WSW deep layer flow with a mean trough in the Lakes region. That's been more productive for upslope/lake effect combo than NW flow has been the past couple years for whatever reason. A lack of deep lows near FVE recent years has me more impressed with WSW flow than I have in the past.

 

And any shortwave moving through the flow can pool moisture from the Lakes out ahead of the frontal system and then wring it out over the mountains with any FROPA or Arctic boundary. None of it would be a "big event" but a bunch of 2-6" mountain snowfalls can be fun nonetheless.

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I don’t know eyewall, that all sounds a bit over the top if you ask me.  Is a system on a deterministic model a week out even a thing?  And when ~40% of the ECMWF panels for the next week show some sort of snow in NVT, I’m not sure I’d describe that as “essentially dry and cold”.

 

I don’t think your description jives with what the BTV NWS has in this evening’s synopsis, or Powderfreak’s recent thoughts:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

639 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

 

.SYNOPSIS...

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR NORMAL AND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

 

Alright perhaps it was, but I guess I am focused on bigger events and was ignoring upslope/mesoscale snows and/or minor nickle and dime disturbances.

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Alright perhaps it was, but I guess I am focused on bigger events and was ignoring upslope/mesoscale snows and/or minor nickle and dime disturbances.

Yeah can't blame ya in BTV for not getting too excited about 1-3" type stuff 15 miles away.

I do think it's a little less favorable and drier than the past few days were showing. There was more of a SW flow off the Lakes for multiple days.

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I like the NWS wind forecast for Mansfield...should escalate quickly later this morning it seems.

 

6am...31mph

9am...56mph

12pm...85mph

3pm...80mph

 

If you can't snow, you might as well blow.

 

Obviously, our locales have nothing in common, but I am very disappointed that the pattern of cutters appears increasingly to e moving to one of suppression.  Some areas of SNE may do okay with that but not mine.  And certainly you folks in NW New England.  At least you have lake/upslope activity that might help out up there.

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Jesus. They're all like d7+ threats. I'm not worried about suppression yet, but of course it could happen.

 

The overnight operational GFS and Euro runs would indicate suppression depression with just weak disturbances across the northern tier (and perhaps some upslope snow showers from time to time). I am keeping the meltdown just below the surface for now.

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Maybe they won't work out, but I see plenty of room for amplification on most of these threats. Most of our big storms don't even begin clobbering us on guidance until under d3.

Yeah. I'm not sure why people keep insisting to see a day 12 clobbering on an op run to make them feel better.

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