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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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Jeez, windy week coming up?  I didn't look at much model data today with a lot of meetings at work, but this looks excessive for 3,000ft.  Not Sunday, but the rest of the week with gusts to 65mph.

 

 

Well I know our WRF is hitting the downslope wind potential pretty hard Sunday.

 

I will say I usually try to be careful on gusts in the higher terrain. It never seems to be like the valleys, where you know well mixed you'll probably do 130-140% or more of your wind speed on the gust. I typically cap MWN down to 2500 feet at 120% of the speed.

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Doubtful you'll see any. Bufkit says 3,000 foot ceilings, and radar confirms that's the height of the echoes in SE NH. You don't have to get too deep into NH before our 0.5 degree slice is overshooting that.

 

There are definitely some heavier bursts in there. CON went down to 2 1/2SM not long ago. Had to have been around a decent amount of time to trip the ASOS SPECI.

There was a light coating when I left there at 3p.
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Doubtful you'll see any. Bufkit says 3,000 foot ceilings, and radar confirms that's the height of the echoes in SE NH. You don't have to get too deep into NH before our 0.5 degree slice is overshooting that.

 

There are definitely some heavier bursts in there. CON went down to 2 1/2SM not long ago. Had to have been around a decent amount of time to trip the ASOS SPECI.

It would be nice if this can continue to build a bit and maybe give us an inch by morning.

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It would be nice if this can continue to build a bit and maybe give us an inch by morning.

 

I suspect it probably will, though not sure we'll pull meaningful accumulation out of it.

 

But cirrus moving overhead may just serve to help by seeder-feeder tonight so we avoid any drizzle.

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Weird...pretty much nothing happening here.  I'm torn between calling it flurries or light light light snow.  

 

Got just enough to make the sand I put down on the icy patches in the driveway completely useless.

Just measured...

0.5" new

0.04" w.e.

Just snizzle now

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I am not getting my hopes up for much of anything snow-wise next weds. Gut tells me it's gonna wiff. Maybe eastern ME gets something worthwhile.

 

Yeah the Euro is mainly a miss for interior NNE. The GFS is a bit better but still a bit south with the big snows. To date on the season BTV has 12.1 inches of snow, 3 inch depth, and the departure from normal is -16.6 inches or 42% of average snowfall to date. Last year at this time we had 35.5 inches.

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Well I know our WRF is hitting the downslope wind potential pretty hard Sunday.

 

I will say I usually try to be careful on gusts in the higher terrain. It never seems to be like the valleys, where you know well mixed you'll probably do 130-140% or more of your wind speed on the gust. I typically cap MWN down to 2500 feet at 120% of the speed.

 

Good point, the speed vs. gusts don't vary as much as they do in the lower elevations, its more of a constant/steady state.

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