NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

[wxeyeNH]

Beautiful sunshine and got up to 44.2F according to the Davis.  Amazingly there is no ice in Newfound Lake.  Drone shot of the homestead with solid snowcover even with the SW exposure.   Lake and Mt Cardigan to the west.

[powderfreak]

3rd day in a row of whopper inversions.

1,550ft...26F

750ft... 2F

[adk]

3rd day in a row of whopper inversions.

1,550ft...26F

750ft... 2F

 

Don't worry, we'll change that this weekend. Good 'ole GL cutter will mix out that inversion really nicely. 

 

Sunday looks terrible. Warm, windy and rainy. SWEEEEEEET. 

 

At least we'll see strong lake enhanced snow showers on the back side. 

[powderfreak]

Don't worry, we'll change that this weekend. Good 'ole GL cutter will mix out that inversion really nicely. 

 

Sunday looks terrible. Warm, windy and rainy. SWEEEEEEET. 

 

At least we'll see strong lake enhanced snow showers on the back side. 

 

The wind will be impressive, especially west slopes.

 

Also, have you ever noticed over the past month how sometimes the wind readings on Mansfield seems a little off...and then other times its just plain wrong (like 35G201)?  I got an email from Nash at BTV yesterday that said they sent a team up to the summit to check on the wind readings.  They installed a filter to remove RF interference from the transmitters (that's what they think were causing the obscure wind readings), and also found a bad connector that may be related to the excessive speeds seen over the past month or two. 

 

The wind data over the past day or two has been significantly better and more in-line with the top of the Quad wind speeds.  Previously there were days when it would be showing 50G65 and you go to the top and its like 20-30mph at best. 

 

Good timing for some maintenance with a 75kt H85 southeast low level jet progged to move through on Sunday...should get some fun and legit readings out of that. 

[mreaves]

The wind will be impressive, especially west slopes.

 

Also, have you ever noticed over the past month how sometimes the wind readings on Mansfield seems a little off...and then other times its just plain wrong (like 35G201)?  I got an email from Nash at BTV yesterday that said they sent a team up to the summit to check on the wind readings.  They installed a filter to remove RF interference from the transmitters (that's what they think were causing the obscure wind readings), and also found a bad connector that may be related to the excessive speeds seen over the past month or two. 

 

The wind data over the past day or two has been significantly better and more in-line with the top of the Quad wind speeds.  Previously there were days when it would be showing 50G65 and you go to the top and its like 20-30mph at best. 

 

Good timing for some maintenance with a 75kt H85 southeast low level jet progged to move through on Sunday...should get some fun and legit readings out of that. 

You mean there hasn't been 200 mph wind gusts up there?  lol 

[powderfreak]

You mean there hasn't been 200 mph wind gusts up there? lol

Haha, it's funny because there's been two things going on...there's RF interference which just causes ridiculously unbelievable obs, then there's just excessive readings where it's windy but the station is reporting like 150-200% of reality. Like a sustained 30mph comes in as sustained 50mph. At first we thought it was terrain funneling wind speeds but it just seemed too excessive at times. Like NW winds of 70, gusting 90 from a 40kt H85 jet.

[tamarack]

Another morning in the singles.  Yesterday's 36/4 was actually 3.5° AN; today will probably be much the same.  I hope Sunday's rain/wind doesn't peel the new ice off local lakes.  I'd guess Long Pond in Belgrade, which caught on Monday night, has 3-4" of black ice, and short of a downpour with temps and gusts both touching 50, it should be okay.

[dryslot]

It's the biggest inversion I've seen in our area. We were at 27F, but 300' below in the valley, it was 11F. What I don't understand is on a neighboring hilltop  at nearly the same elevation as our house (730'), but ~1/3mi as a crow flies, the temp was 15F, while we're at 27F. I drive this way to work and it's almost always colder on this hilltop despite it being at the same elevation as our hill.

 

You built on the wrong rock

[Lava Rock]

You built on the wrong rock

Lol. Seriously though, is there any meteorological explanation?

[dryslot]

Lol. Seriously though, is there any meteorological explanation?

Is it always that way? It may have to do with the flow and drainage of colder air, I know you have a lake in a lot of your pics

[OceanStWx]

It's the biggest inversion I've seen in our area. We were at 27F, but 300' below in the valley, it was 11F. What I don't understand is on a neighboring hilltop  at nearly the same elevation as our house (730'), but ~1/3mi as a crow flies, the temp was 15F, while we're at 27F. I drive this way to work and it's almost always colder on this hilltop despite it being at the same elevation as our hill.

 

Could be a nuance of the terrain. Think about SLK, it's at 1600 feet, but sits in a bowl up there. Maybe that temp senor in your hood is in a little hollow on the property and maybe you sit on the crown or slope of the hill?

[wxeyeNH]

32F  light snow just started.  Vis about 5 miles.  Not freezing drizzle, definately small flake stuff

[powderfreak]

32F light snow just started. Vis about 5 miles. Not freezing drizzle, definately small flake stuff

Huh. Not even a cloud in the sky or on the horizon up here.

[OceanStWx]

Huh. Not even a cloud in the sky or on the horizon up here.

 

Already creeping up the eastern spine towards MVL.

[OceanStWx]

It's done the old end around the Whites.

[powderfreak]

Already creeping up the eastern spine towards MVL.

 

Can't see anything up this way yet, looks like its getting to about Sugarbush region on the east slopes.

 

Fascinating, never would've even thought to look at the satellite as its just blue sky all around.  Still about an hours drive south of here but can see it trying to curl up the east side of the Greens.

 

[OceanStWx]

Can't see anything up this way yet, looks like its getting to about Sugarbush region on the east slopes.

 

Fascinating, never would've even thought to look at the satellite as its just blue sky all around.  Still about an hours drive south of here but can see it trying to curl up the east side of the Greens.

 

Untitled.jpg

 

Yeah, if you loop it you can really see return flow has begun and clouds are moving back north now.

[powderfreak]

Yeah, if you loop it you can really see return flow has begun and clouds are moving back north now.

And just like that it's faded sunshine now. We had some high cirrus but these lower to mid level could a came out of nowhere around summit height or just above. Still generally filtered sun but you can tell the end of that is rapidly approaching. That happened fast.

[mreaves]

And just like that it's faded sunshine now. We had some high cirrus but these lower to mid level could a came out of nowhere around summit height or just above. Still generally filtered sun but you can tell the end of that is rapidly approaching. That happened fast.

I was going to say, overcast here.

[eekuasepinniW]

Just started lightly snowing here.

[OceanStWx]

Precip blossoming on our radar now.

 

Looks like drizzle, but ZDR is a little higher indicating crappy snow growth (dendrites are closer to 0, needles/plates tend to fall with the long axis parallel to the ground).

[dendrite]

-SN

[Damage In Tolland]

-SN

Congrats on 1-3

[OceanStWx]

-SN

 

It's interesting. Before the cirrus spilled overhead, the IR satellite was saying -9 to -10^oC cloud tops with this stratus. More than cold enough for snow around these parts.

 

But Bufkit was saying cloud tops around -3^oC near CON. Hence our shying away from FZDZ tonight.

[tamarack]

Can't see anything up this way yet, looks like its getting to about Sugarbush region on the east slopes.

 

Fascinating, never would've even thought to look at the satellite as its just blue sky all around.  Still about an hours drive south of here but can see it trying to curl up the east side of the Greens.

 

Untitled.jpg

 

LOL at that cloud boundary that appears to define the boundary of Aroostook County.

 

 

Could be a nuance of the terrain. Think about SLK, it's at 1600 feet, but sits in a bowl up there. Maybe that temp senor in your hood is in a little hollow on the property and maybe you sit on the crown or slope of the hill?

 

Doesn't take much.  I can't prove it (since I don't know if anyone is currently living there), but on a still morning I'd guess the mobile home 1/4 mile to my north, and on a low hilltop 100+ ft higher, will be 10F less cold than my place because the cold air drains down the field between the two residences and then is blocked by the woods on the south side of our house.  (And my woodlot of 80 acres has no more than 40' between its high and low points, the flat ground further inhibiting the cold air movement.) 

 

The New Sharon co-op site is 3 miles to my SSE and 100 ft higher elev, and sits on a gentle north slope where air can freely drain toward the Sandy River.  On still winter mornings, that station is often 10F or more milder than mine.  The Farmington co-op is 6 miles away, just north of due west from my place and 40' higher, on a somewhat steeper sidehill adjacent to the Sandy's floodplain.  He's generally 3-6F milder than I am on cold and still mornings.

 

Microclimates are fun (though mine killed both my attempts at growing peaches.)

[OceanStWx]

LOL at that cloud boundary that appears to define the boundary of Aroostook County.

 

 

Could be a nuance of the terrain. Think about SLK, it's at 1600 feet, but sits in a bowl up there. Maybe that temp senor in your hood is in a little hollow on the property and maybe you sit on the crown or slope of the hill?

 

Doesn't take much.  I can't prove it (since I don't know if anyone is currently living there), but on a still morning I'd guess the mobile home 1/4 mile to my north, and on a low hilltop 100+ ft higher, will be 10F less cold than my place because the cold air drains down the field between the two residences and then is blocked by the woods on the south side of our house.  (And my woodlot of 80 acres has no more than 40' between its high and low points, the flat ground further inhibiting the cold air movement.) 

 

The New Sharon co-op site is 3 miles to my SSE and 100 ft higher elev, and sits on a gentle north slope where air can freely drain toward the Sandy River.  On still winter mornings, that station is often 10F or more milder than mine.  The Farmington co-op is 6 miles away, just north of due west from my place and 40' higher, on a somewhat steeper sidehill adjacent to the Sandy's floodplain.  He's generally 3-6F milder than I am on cold and still mornings.

 

Microclimates are fun (though mine killed both my attempts at growing peaches.)

 

I mean check those clear, calm mornings. You can see the inversion top from the smoke plume coming out of chimneys. Sometimes it's not more than 30 feet deep.

[mahk_webstah]

It's interesting. Before the cirrus spilled overhead, the IR satellite was saying -9 to -10^oC cloud tops with this stratus. More than cold enough for snow around these parts.

 

But Bufkit was saying cloud tops around -3^oC near CON. Hence our shying away from FZDZ tonight.

 

 

Yup light snow here that is sticking just a bit on my walkway.  every once in a while a slightly heavier burst that last for about 45 seconds lol.  but no radar echoes here yet.

[powderfreak]

Jeez, windy week coming up?  I didn't look at much model data today with a lot of meetings at work, but this looks excessive for 3,000ft.  Not Sunday, but the rest of the week with gusts to 65mph.

 

Sunday

Rain, mainly after 10am. High near 42. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 55 to 65 mph increasing to 70 to 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday Night

Rain showers before 9pm, then rain and snow showers between 9pm and 10pm, then snow showers likely after 10pm. Low around 13. Windy, with a west wind 31 to 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Monday

A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 16. Very windy, with a west wind 33 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Very windy, with a south wind 24 to 29 mph increasing to 36 to 41 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

Tuesday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Very windy, with a south wind 34 to 44 mph becoming west 17 to 27 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

Wednesday

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Very windy, with a west wind 11 to 21 mph increasing to 38 to 48 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.

Wednesday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Very windy, with a west wind 46 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 11. Very windy, with a west wind 40 to 47 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. Very windy, with a west wind 36 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

[tamarack]

I mean check those clear, calm mornings. You can see the inversion top from the smoke plume coming out of chimneys. Sometimes it's not more than 30 feet deep.

 

The first 5+ years we lived in Ft. Kent, our homes were less than 30' above the St. John River.  Then we moved to the back settlement SW of town in Sept 1981, gaining about 450' of elev, and lived there 4+ years.   There were some very cold mornings during both periods, as I recorded -47 in Jan 1979 (and -39 to -42 on 4 other occasions, all five while at the lower elev) and a friend living along Rt 1 near the FK-Frenchville line hit that same -47 in Jan 1984, as did the Van Buren co-op.  In the back settlement we never got below -34, and had -32 on that cold morning in 1984.   The back settlement road ran 2 miles eastward from my place and then turned almost due north, looking across into Canada a mile or so away.  The cedar mill there had a cone burner for bark and slabs, and on clear winter mornings,  if I saw a smoke layer a few dozen yards above that burner I knew our office next to the river was 10-15F colder than at the house.

[OceanStWx]

Yup light snow here that is sticking just a bit on my walkway.  every once in a while a slightly heavier burst that last for about 45 seconds lol.  but no radar echoes here yet.

 

Doubtful you'll see any. Bufkit says 3,000 foot ceilings, and radar confirms that's the height of the echoes in SE NH. You don't have to get too deep into NH before our 0.5 degree slice is overshooting that.

 

There are definitely some heavier bursts in there. CON went down to 2 1/2SM not long ago. Had to have been around a decent amount of time to trip the ASOS SPECI.