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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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Man it is just absolutely pouring out.  BTV and MPV both clicking away at 0.25"/hr.

 

Snowing heavily at 6,000ft probably...intense bright banding. 

 

Dec_22_zpsqxk7psxl.gif

 

We are TOO LOW. PULL UP PULL UP. 

 

Wonder if the top 300 feet on Marcy are like buried in snow right now. EDIT: That's a now per the rockpile measurement. Damn it all to hell. 

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We are TOO LOW. PULL UP PULL UP. 

 

Wonder if the top 300 feet on Marcy are like buried in snow right now. EDIT: That's a now per the rockpile measurement. Damn it all to hell. 

 

This system reminds me of the February 5-6, 2011 storm...quick mover, half inch to one inch of QPF, dynamic with thundersnow in that one, low pressure going from NE PA through SNE.

 

05FEB11B.jpg

 

 

Although this system has absolutely no cold air...at all.  Haha. 

 

Dec_22b_zpst7nuljo0.gif

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This system reminds me of the February 5-6, 2011 storm...quick mover, half inch to one inch of QPF, dynamic with thundersnow in that one, low pressure going from NE PA through SNE.

05FEB11B.jpg

Although this system has absolutely no cold air...at all. Haha.

Dec_22b_zpst7nuljo0.gif

Yup, raining 100 mis north of Montreal in late December. Just unreal the lack of any appreciable cold air this month.
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This system reminds me of the February 5-6, 2011 storm...quick mover, half inch to one inch of QPF, dynamic with thundersnow in that one, low pressure going from NE PA through SNE.

 

05FEB11B.jpg

 

 

Although this system has absolutely no cold air...at all.  Haha. 

 

Dec_22b_zpst7nuljo0.gif

That was a good storm. This is not. 

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klw posted this in a thread last year....very cool site.  Figured since we have a nice rainy xmas week we can reminisce of better times. Nice to know you can get big snows in the interior  :)

 

Many I haven't heard of because they didn't affect the CP and I have lived on the CP most of my life....although there are some that crossover obviously affecting the CP and interior.

 

Lyndon State has a Interior NE snow storm ranking:

http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/projects/snowstorm/

 

 

 

 

The last one listed is from 07 so I don't know if it is an active list anymore.  when posted it covered 77-07.

 

 

Methodology is here:

 http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/projects/snowstorm/

 

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klw posted this in a thread last year....very cool site.  Figured since we have a nice rainy xmas week we can reminisce of better times. Nice to know you can get big snows in the interior  :)

 

Many I haven't heard of because they didn't affect the CP and I have lived on the CP most of my life....although there are some that crossover obviously affecting the CP and interior.

 

Wow this is phenomenal.  Thanks man!

 

They have composites for our best interior snowstorms and some good research.

 

This is worth saving... composite of like 30 years worth of heavy interior snowstorms.

 

This is pretty much what I would expect for a classic track of a heavy Vermont snowstorm, right over the Cape with mid-level lows over SNE and intense frontogensis in NNE.

 

19_composite_meso1.gif

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As if there was any doubt at all as to what the favorable surface low track is for interior New England snowstorms (a lot of folks in SNE probably consider us the deep interior though).

 

Interior New England's heaviest snowstorm tracks...

 

SSP_LowTracks.png

 

 

Yep,  no doubt and no surprise really on the best low track for the DEEP interior.

 

Good thing James never comes into this subforum, he would not approve....lol.  Well, many posters besides James wouldn't approve either.

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Yep, no doubt and no surprise really on the best low track for the DEEP interior.

Good thing James never comes into this subforum, he would not approve....lol. Well, many posters besides James wouldn't approve either.

Yeah just like that graphic shows, give me a bomb over BOS or PWM any day and its game on for NNE.

Looking at that graphic of favorable tracks, it's also easy to see how the Benchmark is the SNE preferred track. They need the same thing just further SE.

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Per BTV Disco: 

 

RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE (THURSDAY DECEMBER
24TH). BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR 12/24 AND THE ALL-TIME
DECEMBER HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.

BURLINGTON (KBTV)- 51 (1957), 67 (DEC 7TH 1998)
MONTPELIER (KMPV)- 53 (1957), 67 (DEC 6TH 2001)
ST. JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)- 54 (2004), 67 (DEC 7TH 1998)
MASSENA (KMSS)- 56 (1957), 68 (DEC 6TH 2001)
MT. MANSFIELD (MMNV1)- 47 (1957), 60 (DEC 10TH 1966)

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 12/24 MAY ALSO BE BROKEN:

BURLINGTON (KBTV)- 40 (1931)
MONTPELIER (KMPV)- 37 (1979)
ST.JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)- 36 (2006)
MASSENA (KMSS)- 36 (1979)
MT.MANSFIELD (MMNV1)- 33 (2003)

 

---------------------------------------------------

 

No doubt in my mind all of these records are going to fall. What's really shocking is that the all-time December high records could fall THREE WEEKS later than previous guidance. 67 is impressive for December 6th. 67 on the 24th in BTV is just downright silly. At least its so bad its actually nice.  

 

In all truth, if it is going to be terrible, I'd rather it be terrible like this. It is downright lovely outside in BTV right now. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No. I'm kidding. F this. 

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Going back to drones for a second, I decided to go ahead and bite the bullet. I ordered a DJI Phantom 3 Advanced. It will be here sometime around the New Year I am guessing.

awesome!  :weenie:

 

if you've never flown before do yourself a favor and grab cheap micro quad at the local hobby shop to practice with

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No doubt in my mind all of these records are going to fall. What's really shocking is that the all-time December high records could fall THREE WEEKS later than previous guidance. 67 is impressive for December 6th. 67 on the 24th in BTV is just downright silly. At least its so bad its actually nice.  

 

In all truth, if it is going to be terrible, I'd rather it be terrible like this. It is downright lovely outside in BTV right now. 

 

No. I'm kidding. F this. 

 

I mean the modeling has been crazy with this. Outside of the model climate, outside of the climate reanalysis (even in an already warm regime of normals). So really it's not surprising that some off the charts records may fall too.

 

Of course, somebody in our forecast area is going to end up saying "what torch?" I mean just look at today, we stayed jammed in and foggy all day (at least I assume so since I went to bed in fog and woke up to it too).

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I mean the modeling has been crazy with this. Outside of the model climate, outside of the climate reanalysis (even in an already warm regime of normals). So really it's not surprising that some off the charts records may fall too.

Of course, somebody in our forecast area is going to end up saying "what torch?" I mean just look at today, we stayed jammed in and foggy all day (at least I assume so since I went to bed in fog and woke up to it too).

We had our 36 hours of under 1sm visibility fog earlier this month...no thanks, that was dreary as all hell. However the inversion photos were pretty sick haha. Did Gene fly the drone again today?

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Happy holidays from btv?

NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO

WEDS...WITH OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT.

OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EJECTING POTENT SHORT WAVE

ENERGY FROM WESTERN CONUS TROF ON TUESDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.

THE BIG DIFFERENCE THIS TIME AROUND WILL BE COLD 1040MB HIGH

PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED

NORTHERN STREAM JET. THIS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL

COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IN THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS WHILE

WARM AIR TRIES TO SURGE NORTH AND GETS PUSHED EASTWARD FROM THE

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HAVE NOTED STRONG BAND OF 850 TO 700MB

FORCING AND GOOD POSITION OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB JET TO HELP

PROMOTE DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY

THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...BUT AS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST

850MB JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS APPROACHES OUR THERMAL PROFILES SLOWLY

APPROACH 0C FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP

NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND 0C DEVELOPING OVER OUR

CWA...RESULTING IN THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP. WHICH

UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE

IS TRACKING TO OUR WEST...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH

UPPER LEVEL TROF. POSITION AND TIMING OF SECONDARY COASTAL SYSTEM

WILL BE CRITICAL ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH AND

PLACEMENT OF QPF FIELDS. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THIS SYSTEM WILL

HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND

0.75...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOW MUCH

FALLS AS SNOW...MIXED PRECIP...AND A COLD RAIN IS YET TO BE

DETERMINED. STAY TUNED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR

WEDS INTO THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

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Wild night coming over Sheffield Heights last night.  Usually due to blinding snow squalls, not so this year.  Blinding rain and 48F.  One of the guys I play hockey with delivers Propane, average Dec is 65 loads, tally so far this month, 28!  Strangeness.  I suppose the bright side is all the kids getting bikes from Santa this year won't have to wait 6 months to try them.

 

Happy Holidays NNE.

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