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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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Bummer, BTV just reset the storm total precip on the radar.  You could clearly see the band of enhanced totals on that running from BTV area through Bolton/Waterbury down into just north of MPV.

 

Anyway, here at 1,500ft there's 3.5" on the ground and it's 18F with wind...feels like winter, albeit for only a day.

 

Dec_20_zpst6mzenuh.jpg

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Got a surprise 0.3" of 30:1 feathers last evening - nice nickels/dimes floating by our church in Farmington (maybe 1/2" there) as the Christmas program finished about 8:30.  Wind blew all night, temp at 19 this morning and still breezy.

 

06z gfs has 65 for AUG late Thurs evening - would probably break their daily record by about 15° if that verified.

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Barton, VT showing 4.8". My buddy in Eden said 5".

Localized spots definitely hit advisory criteria.

These lake effect band events are often sneaky over-performers for someone, just hard to pin down.

 

I mean the stuff across northern VT yesterday was connected upstream to Huron and Superior. Then that all got swept up in the secondary cold front and dropped south.

 

I'm just upset I didn't hit the snow harder south of the mountains overnight. I saw traces of snow on the ground onthe way into the office this morning. I wound down the PoP too quickly.

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Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3

Snow Density: 3.0% H2O

Temperature: 23.4 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 2 inches

 

I was about to say that the first event of December was in the books, but I just looked outside and saw that it was snowing, and bit of something was firing up on the radar:

 

20DEC15A.gif

 

It looks like anything this morning will be fairly short lived though:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

635 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

 

.SYNOPSIS...

AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY, MORNING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

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Got a surprise 0.3" of 30:1 feathers last evening - nice nickels/dimes floating by our church in Farmington (maybe 1/2" there) as the Christmas program finished about 8:30. Wind blew all night, temp at 19 this morning and still breezy.

06z gfs has 65 for AUG late Thurs evening - would probably break their daily record by about 15° if that verified.

65f would be nuts, but might as well go big.
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No shutout for BTV in DEC. Shows that even in the absolute worst of worst patterns it's hard to put up 0.0 in NVT.

Nice pics guys.

Yeah, it's also why BTV's latest measurable snowfall on record is like a full month earlier than even a snowy SNE spot like ORH at 1,000ft. Early season cold air is going to get lake effect and meso-scale snow going, so even in awful patterns, it still just takes some cold air to get it to snow as you don't rely on a synoptic snow event to get on the board for the season.

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Yeah, it's also why BTV's latest measurable snowfall on record is like a full month earlier than even a snowy SNE spot like ORH at 1,000ft. Early season cold air is going to get lake effect and meso-scale snow going, so even in awful patterns, it still just takes some cold air to get it to snow as you don't rely on a synoptic snow event to get on the board for the season.

 

Even so, it's pathetic that you can't even get a synoptic 1-3" this time of year up there. I mean that's a given. 

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Even so, it's pathetic that you can't even get a synoptic 1-3" this time of year up there. I mean that's a given.

Uncharted territory. Thus "even in awful patterns"... However we've also seen it very hard to get synoptic snow up here in cold patterns too the last couple years haha.

The mesoscale is like the mini insurance policy for BTVis what I was trying to say in terms of record late dates of snowfall when compared with even other snowy hill terrain in parts of SNE/CNE.

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Uncharted territory. Thus "even in awful patterns"... However we've also seen it very hard to get synoptic snow up here in cold patterns too the last couple years haha.

The mesoscale is like the mini insurance policy for BTVis what I was trying to say in terms of record late dates of snowfall when compared with even other snowy hill terrain in parts of SNE/CNE.

 Seems like after the 28th or so, you'll finally get a more sustainable pattern to at least make snow and not melt the next day...lol.

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Below I’ve got the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from this event for the Vermont ski areas:

 

Jay Peak: 5”

Burke: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 5”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Sugarbush: 2”

Pico: 1”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 4”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 3”

 

With the way those bands were set up off of Lake Huron and Lake Ontario, the trend of higher amounts in Northern Vermont and Southern Vermont isn’t too surprising.  I thought that the highest totals would have been coming in from Southern Vermont based on the initial reports, but obviously things went well in the north once that band got going.  We really have to thank the Great Lakes for some help with this one, or else this might have been just an inch or two everywhere.

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Haha it feels brutal out there but it's dead on normal. 8F with 40mph winds at the summit feels like arctic tundra.

 

I was up there pretty early...earilier than normal even,...and was like WHAT THE F is this!!! I forgot how cold winter is. Damn if it wasn't miserable up there. 

 

Also, cold snow and wild winds aren't a great combo. 

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Watching the Pats and the high clouds coming in.  Warm air advection.  So our 2 or 3 day winter is about to end for awhile.  eek, your right.  20 something feels so cold.  I remember last year when we would have a warm day and it would get up to 25F and I remember saying to myself how warm it feels.  

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Watching the Pats and the high clouds coming in.  Warm air advection.  So our 2 or 3 day winter is about to end for awhile.  eek, your right.  20 something feels so cold.  I remember last year when we would have a warm day and it would get up to 25F and I remember saying to myself how warm it feels.  

 

I have a feeling we radiate really quickly tonight and then level off as the warm front tries to lift into the area. Some of these set ups really decouple at the surface while the warmth races in aloft. If you think about it the return flow only strengthens the inversion set up by falling surface temps.

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I was up there pretty early...earilier than normal even,...and was like WHAT THE F is this!!! I forgot how cold winter is. Damn if it wasn't miserable up there.

Also, cold snow and wild winds aren't a great combo.

Yeah those winds were wild! I haven't seen the Front wind-stripped like that before. All those steep runs were just blown clean to grass and dirt. Would've been a great day for the woods if there was any base, haha. One of those days where there's no new snow on the trails but it's boot deep in the woods.

Snow plots had 3.5" at 1,500ft and 4.5" at 3,000ft off Perry Merrill.

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Since we’re a third of the way through December, I decided to see where snowfall and snowpack currently sit with respect to normal here at our site.

 

As of today we’ve had 3.7” of snow, and that’s not even close to mean snowfall as of this point in the season – on average we would have two feet of snow by now, and seasons with strong starts will already have delivered 30-40”.

 

I hadn’t thought about it until recently, but now that I look at the records I see that as of Tuesday (December 8th) this season has fallen to the least snowy in my records.  The 2006-2007 season had a storm in early December that pushed it well ahead of this season, and the closest season to this one is now 2012-2013, which had received 8.6” through this date.

 

Obviously with no snowpack down, this season is behind the curve.  The average start date of the continuous snowpack here was about a week ago, and mean snowpack depth for today is 5.1”.

 

I’m updating now that we’re 2/3 of the way through the month, and after this most recent event, things have certainly improved relative to the way they were through the first 1/3 of the month.  At 6.6”, the snowfall this season is still lowest in my records, but now less than six inches behind the 2006-2007 season with respect to this date.  There’s certainly some potential in the last third of the month as well, so we’ll see if it at least gives a run at 2006-2007 which ended December with 21.9” on the season.

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I’m updating now that we’re 2/3 of the way through the month, and after this most recent event, things have certainly improved relative to the way they were through the first 1/3 of the month.  At 6.6”, the snowfall this season is still lowest in my records, but now less than six inches behind the 2006-2007 season with respect to this date.  There’s certainly some potential in the last third of the month as well, so we’ll see if it at least gives a run at 2006-2007 which ended December with 21.9” on the season.

 

Things would have to really, really go our way if we are to make up 15" in the last 10 days of the month, but weirder things have happened I guess, haha.

 

I think this month takes the top spot in the basement records.

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