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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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A little dusting of snow this morning... big fat upslope flakes on the car this morning. 

 

But man some of these reflectivities have to be convective.  Good snow growth temps at summit level but some snow showers are showing up to 50dbz cores.

 

WUNIDS_map_zpskwgpuoe3.gif

 

They are definitely convective. I could clearly see the structure of one of the "cells" as it was approaching the Greens.

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Flurries in BTV tonight.

 

When I was leaving Burlington yesterday around 8:30 P.M. there was light snow falling, and it was continuous all the way through to the house in Waterbury.  The structure of the snow varied quite a bit, from nice fluffy flakes in Burlington that didn’t accumulation with temperatures in the upper 30s F, to graupel in Richmond that put down transient accumulations easily on elevated surfaces with temperatures in the mid 30s F.  When I arrived here at the house I found our first tenth of an inch of snow accumulation for the month.  My elevated snowboard was kind of messy with a lot of refrozen stuff on it, so I swapped out for a fresh one late last night, and this morning there was another tenth of an inch of graupel on it from some other round of precipitation.  The ground has also got a white coating from this most recent accumulation.  I wasn’t up early enough to catch when it happened, but no doubt it’s from one of those streamers affecting the area:

 

19DEC15A.gif

 

Anyway, it took all the way to December 18th to avoid a December snow shutout this year, which is actually quite remarkable.  To put that into perspective, in all my seasons of data, the farthest into December we’d ever gone before getting accumulating snow was December 5th!  So, this season took almost two weeks longer than that, and stands well alone in that category with every other season getting that first December snow between the 1st and 5th of the month.  That’s just how typically snowy December is around here, and how anomalous this December is.

 

Details from yesterday evening’s and this morning’s observations are below:

 

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 33.3 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: None

 

Details from the 8:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 32.4 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

You can really see the distinct streamers of moisture/precipitation coming off the Great Lakes in the regional satellite image, with Southern Vermont getting in the flow from Lake Ontario, and Northern Vermont getting in the flow all the way from Lake Huron.

 

19DEC15B.gif

 

It looks like the next period to watch is this afternoon into this evening with the continued moisture flow off the Great Lakes and a strong shortwave affecting the area:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 637 AM EST SATURDAY...IT`S FINALLY GOING TO FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE WINTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT. WHILE THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION OVER THE TUG HILL, INCREASING 925-850MB FLOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF BOTH LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON INTO OUR AREA. THIS LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO BOTH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. IN FACT, OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LINE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A MODEST 925MB THERMAL GRADIENT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES FROM 00-06Z WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND SLICK CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY, WE WON`T SEE MUCH RECOVERY FROM MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID 20 TO LOW 30S, MAYBE BUMPING UP A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20-30MPH WILL MAKE FOR A BITTER BUT FAIRLY COMMON DECEMBER DAY (THOUGH NOT SO COMMON THIS YEAR), WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

 

FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN VERMONT ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS BRIEF WINTER EVENT WON`T BE MONUMENTAL, BUT CERTAINLY MORE THAN WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER THUS FAR, WITH A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS, AND UP TO 3" ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS. SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD COVERED THROUGH THE NIGHT TEMPERING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR, WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, WHICH SOUNDS COLD, BUT NOT REALLY IT`S NOT AS NORMALS ARE TYPICALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.

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