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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Still a lot of hideously low height anomalies in Alaska.  That usually doesn't teleconnect well for us in the SE.  

 

That said, if we are talking "baby steps", I guess it's better than what we have seen for the last couple of weeks.  I am 41 years old and just hoping I don't look like this............. :oldman:  by the time the good pattern sets in.

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The Aleutian ridge is not a good feature.  Fortunately, the Euro has it in a less robust state.  That's a start.  Also, it's good to see actual blocking in the NAO region (west areas) show up on all of the models.  It looks transient, but it's still good to see it show up.

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The Aleutian ridge is not a good feature.  Fortunately, the Euro has it in a less robust state.  That's a start.  Also, it's good to see actual blocking in the NAO region (west areas) show up on all of the models.  It looks transient, but it's still good to see it show up.

 

The EPS day 8-11 looks like it was trying to go to the NE pac low with trough in east but then quickly goes back to the aleutian ridge, AK low (-PNA/+EPO).  If this was Jan 8th I would start to worry but until then just have to shrug your shoulders and enjoy the warmth this week.

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The main takeaway from what the Euro shows is that we are taking steps in the right direction. Patterns don't typically change overnight, it's usually a process taking 10-20 days. The fact that we are seeing hints by the Euro of better changes around December 18-19th tells me that early January is when a new colder pattern should start to lock in.

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Nice post from the Don - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3786729

 

"The very large and expansive polar vortex would argue that any drop to negative values could be short-lived. Since 1950, seven El Niño events featured AO+ conditions through the first 8 days of December followed by some negative values that developed between 12/9 and 12/15. There was one El Niño case (1951-52) that saw the AO remain positive throughout all of December.

 

Among the seven cases in question, all saw AO+ values return for at least a time during the second half of December. The median number of days during which the AO was positive during the second half of December was 11.

 

Those with more than 11 AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a positive AO average (Mean: +0.982; Range: +0.356 to +1.359). All of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -1.091; Range: -1.806 to -0.195).

 

Those with 11 or fewer AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a negative  AO figure (Mean: -0.879; Range: -2.066 to -0.148). Most of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -0.290; Range: -1.473 to +1.429).

 

Cautiously, given sample size limitations, an above median number of AO+ days for the second half of December might suggest that sustained blocking could be delayed until late January or February. In contrast, the median number or below median number could favor earlier sustained blocking, with the greatest blocking focused on January."

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For those wondering like I was w/ regard to ENSO relationships and SSW, there is none.

 

YVsYH1n.png

 

Also with regard to timing, frequency is obviously skewed in Jan and Feb months for SSW events, which I expected.

 

eVNi08j.png

 

This paper analyzes up to 2010 so relatively new data.

 

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Nice post from the Don - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3786729

 

"The very large and expansive polar vortex would argue that any drop to negative values could be short-lived. Since 1950, seven El Niño events featured AO+ conditions through the first 8 days of December followed by some negative values that developed between 12/9 and 12/15. There was one El Niño case (1951-52) that saw the AO remain positive throughout all of December.

 

Among the seven cases in question, all saw AO+ values return for at least a time during the second half of December. The median number of days during which the AO was positive during the second half of December was 11.

 

Those with more than 11 AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a positive AO average (Mean: +0.982; Range: +0.356 to +1.359). All of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -1.091; Range: -1.806 to -0.195).

 

Those with 11 or fewer AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a negative  AO figure (Mean: -0.879; Range: -2.066 to -0.148). Most of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -0.290; Range: -1.473 to +1.429).

 

Cautiously, given sample size limitations, an above median number of AO+ days for the second half of December might suggest that sustained blocking could be delayed until late January or February. In contrast, the median number or below median number could favor earlier sustained blocking, with the greatest blocking focused on January."

Yeah we should definitely be in the short lived -AO pool, on all the seasonal models February looked the best, so it's not too disheartening to hear. I would like to know the data involving all winters, not just El Nino and if the same correlation exists, that and does the correlation exist between la nina and neutral winters? Would be interesting to see this stuff graphed but I understand how frustrating data can be.

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The Euro long range is showing the PV weakening and elongating quite a bit by hour 240. I'm curious to see if the euro today holds to the idea of a nice PNA around the 18-20th timeframe like it showed last night.

 

GEFS showing strat more activity too.  This would be the time things would start showing up, just need it to verify and get strong through end of Dec.

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Got to give JB credit....The TX panhandle is looking at another big winter storm this weekend and JB called that location as a sweet spot this winter.  It's there 2nd big winter storm and it's only Dec 8th.

 

Winter_2015_16_Snowfall_Aug.png

 

Well Beech Mountain has over 200 inches to go. Pretty sure the summitt seasonal avg is between 90-105 neighborhood if my memory serves me correct. 

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Xmas week looks better to this untrained eye...la la land but we would be happy with even close to that look

The last great late '70's winter , 78-79 of which the entire nation was below average for winter, although no nino, featured a strong -nao and -pdo. However, the cold/snowy pattern didn't get going in the East until early January.

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