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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Ok, Grit. But remember, the SHAFT takes into account a pattern that would produce snowfall ( and/or ice) too. But we'll go with your pattern shift, since it theoretically could support snow/ice somewhere near the area. That would probably yield a reading of around 3.8 - 4.0. It's a complex system.

And Phil, I still believe you'll see some flakes falling before winter is done too. Probably in Feb.

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I rarely look at Op GFS past day 4 or 5 and the Euro has gotten really bad after day 7 or so. Although, I shouldn't say "bad" I am sure there is so much going on right now thats to be expected. Yet again the pattern we want is 10+ days away so have to be a little weary of high stepping into the endzone just yet. It's hard not looking at the GEFS/EPS, who are in great agreement on day 9+ and not feel optimistic about chances at snow Jan 13-20th or so.

Like you said...blocking between HB/DS with an active STJ and ec trough.

The potential problem I see as I posted in the mid Atlantic forum a few minutes back and I think one person here did catch is the PNA collapsing won't work for the SE, even if the NAO is negative. The storm track then likely is too far north since the trof wouldn't be that deep. The NAO would have to go very very west based at that point to save the southeast and mid south. Not saying it's happening but it's on the table

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Ok, Grit. But remember, the SHAFT takes into account a pattern that would produce snowfall ( and/or ice) too. But we'll go with your pattern shift, since it theoretically could support snow/ice somewhere near the area. That would probably yield a reading of around 3.8 - 4.0. It's a complex system.

And Phil, I still believe you'll see some flakes falling before winter is done too. Probably in Feb.

 all in ....

 

 and Best, even if no cigar!

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]

The potential problem I see as I posted in the mid Atlantic forum a few minutes back and I think one person here did catch is the PNA collapsing won't work for the SE, even if the NAO is negative. The storm track then likely is too far north since the trof wouldn't be that deep. The NAO would have to go very very west based at that point to save the southeast and mid south. Not saying it's happening but it's on the table

Agree, although both GEFS/PNA keep a PNA/NAO going, I would rather have a solid -NAO and neutral PNA then weak NAO and +PNA. Last couple winters all a +PNA does is jackpot MA to NE. But as you said if we lose both +PNA and -NAO then it will suck for more than just SE. There is no secret that SE snowy nino's have a strong DS/s-GD block.

a8249108e9d888efd5f7f052fffdb2b4.jpg

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The potential problem I see as I posted in the mid Atlantic forum a few minutes back and I think one person here did catch is the PNA collapsing won't work for the SE, even if the NAO is negative. The storm track then likely is too far north since the trof wouldn't be that deep. The NAO would have to go very very west based at that point to save the southeast and mid south. Not saying it's happening but it's on the table

Yes, a valid concern that the entire setup isn't pressed far enough south.
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Ok, Grit. But remember, the SHAFT takes into account a pattern that would produce snowfall ( and/or ice) too. But we'll go with your pattern shift, since it theoretically could support snow/ice somewhere near the area. That would probably yield a reading of around 3.8 - 4.0. It's a complex system.

And Phil, I still believe you'll see some flakes falling before winter is done too. Probably in Feb.

Only thing I like is what the models are showing day 9+, not happy it's 9+ days away :-)

Why I posted not ready to spike the football yet. There's a reason the advertised pattern hasn't been seen in years.

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Dec strong Nino climo vs what we just observed.

 

Reminds me of the Christmas composite for recent strong El Ninos 

nESDPY6.gif

 

and Christmas composite for moderate + strong El Ninos

CWWzWwiUAAAMvc8.jpg

 

We know what to expect for Christmas next time we have a Nino

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Reminds me of the Christmas composite for recent strong El Ninos

nESD.gif

and Christmas composite for moderate + strong El Ninos

CWWiUAAAMvc8.jpg

We know what to expect for Christmas next time we have a Nino

LOL...yeah probably should have been obvious, maybe not historic record breaking obvious.
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Reminds me of the Christmas composite for recent strong El Ninos 

nESDPY6.gif

 

and Christmas composite for moderate + strong El Ninos

CWWzWwiUAAAMvc8.jpg

 

We know what to expect for Christmas next time we have a Nino

 

 

A flip in January?

 

LOL

 

and lot's of hand wringing ahead of time ....

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This is probably, banter... :lol:

That Virginia side of Rt.13 just before (or after) the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel highlighted with some snow is very picturesque. There's a State Park just before the Visitor Center that is pretty neat. Worth checking out imho for the renovated bathrooms if nothing else. Lol
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We spend a lot of time discussing patterns.  As a casual weather weenie, I'd like to give my impression of the different kinds of patterns that I have become aware of from following the weather.

 

1. Trough West, Ridge East: Leads to warm weather in the SE.  Hated on this thread.

 

2. Trough East, Ridge West: Cool weather in the SE.  Sometimes, dry, sometimes wet (I don;t really understand the reaons why sometimes its dry and sometimes its wet).

 

3. Zonal: No big ridges or troughs in the CONUS.  Generally mild for the whole CONUS as we are flooded with mild Pacific air.

 

Is this list at least partially accurate?  Are there other major patterns I am missing?  For example, I never seem to remember hearing about a big trough in the middle of the country, with ridges on either coast.

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The 00z GFS was close to a system during this same period

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep and 12z Euro dropped down a strong piece of energy at 500mb as well it just didn't dig far enough. Hopefully the 00z Euro will pick this up tonight and show something fun to track :)

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