Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ok, Grit. But remember, the SHAFT takes into account a pattern that would produce snowfall ( and/or ice) too. But we'll go with your pattern shift, since it theoretically could support snow/ice somewhere near the area. That would probably yield a reading of around 3.8 - 4.0. It's a complex system. And Phil, I still believe you'll see some flakes falling before winter is done too. Probably in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I rarely look at Op GFS past day 4 or 5 and the Euro has gotten really bad after day 7 or so. Although, I shouldn't say "bad" I am sure there is so much going on right now thats to be expected. Yet again the pattern we want is 10+ days away so have to be a little weary of high stepping into the endzone just yet. It's hard not looking at the GEFS/EPS, who are in great agreement on day 9+ and not feel optimistic about chances at snow Jan 13-20th or so. Like you said...blocking between HB/DS with an active STJ and ec trough. The potential problem I see as I posted in the mid Atlantic forum a few minutes back and I think one person here did catch is the PNA collapsing won't work for the SE, even if the NAO is negative. The storm track then likely is too far north since the trof wouldn't be that deep. The NAO would have to go very very west based at that point to save the southeast and mid south. Not saying it's happening but it's on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ok, Grit. But remember, the SHAFT takes into account a pattern that would produce snowfall ( and/or ice) too. But we'll go with your pattern shift, since it theoretically could support snow/ice somewhere near the area. That would probably yield a reading of around 3.8 - 4.0. It's a complex system. And Phil, I still believe you'll see some flakes falling before winter is done too. Probably in Feb. all in .... and Best, even if no cigar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 ] The potential problem I see as I posted in the mid Atlantic forum a few minutes back and I think one person here did catch is the PNA collapsing won't work for the SE, even if the NAO is negative. The storm track then likely is too far north since the trof wouldn't be that deep. The NAO would have to go very very west based at that point to save the southeast and mid south. Not saying it's happening but it's on the tableAgree, although both GEFS/PNA keep a PNA/NAO going, I would rather have a solid -NAO and neutral PNA then weak NAO and +PNA. Last couple winters all a +PNA does is jackpot MA to NE. But as you said if we lose both +PNA and -NAO then it will suck for more than just SE. There is no secret that SE snowy nino's have a strong DS/s-GD block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The potential problem I see as I posted in the mid Atlantic forum a few minutes back and I think one person here did catch is the PNA collapsing won't work for the SE, even if the NAO is negative. The storm track then likely is too far north since the trof wouldn't be that deep. The NAO would have to go very very west based at that point to save the southeast and mid south. Not saying it's happening but it's on the tableYes, a valid concern that the entire setup isn't pressed far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 No matter how good it looks, it's just never good enough. We're cashing in, boys. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yes, a valid concern that the entire setup isn't pressed far enough south. Yep, only reason I am optimistic is the AO/NAO, if this was just a PNA/EPO driven pattern again then it would be another aggravating winter of watching MA/NE cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ok, Grit. But remember, the SHAFT takes into account a pattern that would produce snowfall ( and/or ice) too. But we'll go with your pattern shift, since it theoretically could support snow/ice somewhere near the area. That would probably yield a reading of around 3.8 - 4.0. It's a complex system. And Phil, I still believe you'll see some flakes falling before winter is done too. Probably in Feb. Only thing I like is what the models are showing day 9+, not happy it's 9+ days away :-) Why I posted not ready to spike the football yet. There's a reason the advertised pattern hasn't been seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I feel like ATL barely has a chance to cash in with this by now. I hope I'm wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Any changes on the 18z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Any changes on the 18z GEFS? Noise really, same theme. The next few days we will see how things shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 These are the top strong nino's and what typical climo is for Jan/Feb. Does -EPO get involved or not...models say yes in short/intermediate term. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dec strong Nino climo vs what we just observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dec strong Nino climo vs what we just observed. New year resolution , huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 New year resolution , huh Yep, nothing but positive, which is what I posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dec strong Nino climo vs what we just observed. Reminds me of the Christmas composite for recent strong El Ninos and Christmas composite for moderate + strong El Ninos We know what to expect for Christmas next time we have a Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Reminds me of the Christmas composite for recent strong El Ninos and Christmas composite for moderate + strong El Ninos We know what to expect for Christmas next time we have a Nino LOL...yeah probably should have been obvious, maybe not historic record breaking obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Reminds me of the Christmas composite for recent strong El Ninos and Christmas composite for moderate + strong El Ninos We know what to expect for Christmas next time we have a Nino A flip in January? LOL and lot's of hand wringing ahead of time .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 A flip in January? LOL and lot's of hand wringing ahead of time .... yes, if history repeats itself pretty decent signal mid-month. Strong Nino years centered Jan 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 RAH just mentioned that a few hi res models show flurries in central nc tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 RAH just mentioned that a few hi res models show flurries in central nc tomorrow. Yep, saw that earlier. Also some possible Bay Effect snow showers from SE VA down through the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yep, saw that earlier. Also some possible Bay Effect snow showers from SE VA down through the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This is probably, banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This is probably, banter... That Virginia side of Rt.13 just before (or after) the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel highlighted with some snow is very picturesque. There's a State Park just before the Visitor Center that is pretty neat. Worth checking out imho for the renovated bathrooms if nothing else. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Really hard to tell if we have a legit shot at winter weather next week or not. Ops are all over the place, but ensembles, the pattern, and the indicies look good. Would be nice to start seeing some consistency on the models, but guess that is too much to ask this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We spend a lot of time discussing patterns. As a casual weather weenie, I'd like to give my impression of the different kinds of patterns that I have become aware of from following the weather. 1. Trough West, Ridge East: Leads to warm weather in the SE. Hated on this thread. 2. Trough East, Ridge West: Cool weather in the SE. Sometimes, dry, sometimes wet (I don;t really understand the reaons why sometimes its dry and sometimes its wet). 3. Zonal: No big ridges or troughs in the CONUS. Generally mild for the whole CONUS as we are flooded with mild Pacific air. Is this list at least partially accurate? Are there other major patterns I am missing? For example, I never seem to remember hearing about a big trough in the middle of the country, with ridges on either coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 For example, I never seem to remember hearing about a big trough in the middle of the country, with ridges on either coast. Not sure about that one, but there's an OMEGA BLOCK that sometimes sets up which is a ridge in the middle of two troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Canadian has a nice storm 12-13th, surface temps look suspect but with this setup I think they would be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Canadian has a nice storm 12-13th, surface temps look suspect but with this setup I think they would be cold enough. The 00z GFS was close to a system during this same period Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 00z GFS was close to a system during this same period Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep and 12z Euro dropped down a strong piece of energy at 500mb as well it just didn't dig far enough. Hopefully the 00z Euro will pick this up tonight and show something fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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