2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[Wow]

I hear the Doc, was not a good run!  Not terrible but kinda zonal. Just what a friend message me. I've not seen it? 

 

Go check it out.  Jan 10 storm is a cutter but it's got a huge -AO block in place by Day 10.  PV displaced over S Canada.  Zonal over the US with no western ridge but it's a gradient flow (cold) with southern energy moving across the SW.

 

[mackerel_sky]

I hear the Doc, was not a good run! Not terrible but kinda zonal. Just what a friend message me. I've not seen it?

Brick?

[nchighcountrywx]

I hear the Doc, was not a good run!  Not terrible but kinda zonal. Just what a friend message me. I've not seen it?

Yup zonal

JB says models need to still sort things out.

[BIG FROSTY]

Go check it out.  It's got a huge -AO block in place by Day 10.  PV displaced over S Canada.  Zonal over the US with no western ridge but it's a gradient flow (cold) with southern energy moving across the SW.

 

 

That may work with some bleeding cold air! 

[BIG FROSTY]

Brick?

No NOT BRICK,  Block up north! 

[Jonathan]

No Block up north! 

 

 

You serious, Clark? There's a big -AO and a ridge nosing into Greenland and the PV in southern Canada.

 

Ain't nothin' wrong with a good ol' southern slider. We just won't get a big turn up the coast. So instead of 8-12" we'll get 2-6" with a storm.

[BIG FROSTY]

You serious, Clark? There's a big -AO and a ridge nosing into Greenland and the PV in southern Canada.

 

n't nothin' wronAig with a good ol' southern slider. We just won't get a big turn up the coast. So instead of 8-12" we'll get 2-6" with a storm.

No you misunderstood me, or should I say I type it wrong... I was picking with Mack he called me brick I said no block. lol 

 

I went back and cleared it up. 240 has nice blocking. Hence bleeding cold I was talking about. 

[Cold Rain]

Go check it out. Jan 10 storm is a cutter but it's got a huge -AO block in place by Day 10. PV displaced over S Canada. Zonal over the US with no western ridge but it's a gradient flow (cold) with southern energy moving across the SW.

Yup, -EPO ridge appears to have rolled over. Storm track right overhead. No good. That is a risk.

[Jonathan]

Yup, -EPO ridge appears to have rolled over. Storm track right overhead. No good. That is a risk.

 

Looks like a lot of northern stream energy pieces all over the place.

[BIG FROSTY]

Yup zonal

JB says models need to still sort things out.

Yeah, anxious to see the ensembles! See if they show what he thinks, compared to Op run. 

[NWNC2015]

Pcroton from WU:

So now here's the kick. The first storm we are quite certain will come into California and some energy will split off and dive up through the central US spawning our strong and dominant Great Lakes tracking low. The second following system will then dive underneath that first storm's track and also that first storm's resultant sinking environment (you know, cold air dropping in behind the departing storm). Therefore the secondary piece of 500mb energy may spawn a Miller-A type winter storm event. This is the feature you want to watch, bust or boon, if fishing for a Mid-Atlantic-North East snow STORM.Now many important things must unfold and evolve before we get anywhere NEAR laying down the law.

[Jon]

Go check it out.  Jan 10 storm is a cutter but it's got a huge -AO block in place by Day 10.  PV displaced over S Canada.  Zonal over the US with no western ridge but it's a gradient flow (cold) with southern energy moving across the SW.

 

How about the clear true west -NAO? Those anomalies are right where we need them for a southern snowstorm during strong El Ninos. Baffin bay/Labrador Sea block is clear on that 10 day map. I don't buy the breakdown out west to a zonal pattern with that look honestly. I can see the ridge connecting to the -AO on the means. Not a bad look for what we want to see on OP Day 10 runs though regardless. 

[franklin NCwx]

That's a heck of a block forming over the Davis strait on the eps!

It keeps the the Jan 11th threat more of a miller a than a cutter. Surface low runs from the gulf Coast to Columbia to Hatteras.

[packbacker]

That's a heck of a block forming over the Davis strait on the eps!

It keeps the the Jan 11th threat more of a miller a than a cutter. Surface low runs from the gulf Coast to Columbia to Hatteras.

Someone in the SE hacked the EPS because it shows unending snows from day 10 on. Never seen a mean that high for snow this far out for NC/NW-GA-SC.

[franklin NCwx]

Someone in the SE hacked the EPS because it shows unending snows from day 10 on. Never seen a mean that high for snow this far out for NC/NW-GA-SC.

love how the eastern trough deepens on the mean from day 11 to 14.

[CLTwx]

Allen @RaleighWX agrees as well:

 

"Impressive run for the 12z ECMWF Ensemble. Very -AO look, with undercutting pac jet. Stormy/wintry look I-20 north in 11-15 day."

[Cold Rain]

Somebody post a map or something por favor!

[Stormcatt]

Very end

Images from wxbell

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jon]

Someone in the SE hacked the EPS because it shows unending snows from day 10 on. Never seen a mean that high for snow this far out for NC/NW-GA-SC.

 

 

love how the eastern trough deepens on the mean from day 11 to 14.

 

 

Allen @RaleighWX agrees as well:

 

"Impressive run for the 12z ECMWF Ensemble. Very -AO look, with undercutting pac jet. Stormy/wintry look I-20 north in 11-15 day."

Exhibit A: Don't trust Day 10 Operational runs, even if it's the Euro. Ensembles Ensembles Ensembles.

[Cold Rain]

^^ Thanks! That's pretty!

[SN_Lover]

Pcroton from WU:

 

So now here's the kick. The first storm we are quite certain will come into California and some energy will split off and dive up through the central US spawning our strong and dominant Great Lakes tracking low. The second following system will then dive underneath that first storm's track and also that first storm's resultant sinking environment (you know, cold air dropping in behind the departing storm). Therefore the secondary piece of 500mb energy may spawn a Miller-A type winter storm event. This is the feature you want to watch, bust or boon, if fishing for a Mid-Atlantic-North East snow STORM.Now many important things must unfold and evolve before we get anywhere NEAR laying down the law.

I am feeling a tad optimistic about the remainder of this winter. Been on vacation so just starting to look at things again. According to the GFS First storm appears to cut hear MI and the second storm taking a southern track. Both shortwaves look like the were trying to phase early on. That would be ideal, but the polar jet is just moving so dang fast. Well see. Each model is over the place, more than usual. 

[packbacker]

Exhibit A: Don't trust Day 10 Operational runs, even if it's the Euro. Ensembles Ensembles Ensembles.

 

I rarely look at Op GFS past day 4 or 5 and the Euro has gotten really bad after day 7 or so.  Although, I shouldn't say "bad" I am sure there is so much going on right now thats to be expected.  Yet again the pattern we want is 10+ days away so have to be a little weary of high stepping into the endzone just yet.  It's hard not looking at the GEFS/EPS, who are in great agreement on day 9+ and not feel optimistic about chances at snow Jan 13-20th or so.

 

Like you said...blocking between HB/DS with an active STJ and ec trough.

[griteater]

Someone in the SE hacked the EPS because it shows unending snows from day 10 on. Never seen a mean that high for snow this far out for NC/NW-GA-SC.

love how the eastern trough deepens on the mean from day 11 to 14.

 

We may not get squat, but that was the best GEFS / Euro Ens combo I can remember in a long time.  It's not perfect, but they definitely showed a pattern that is better than average.  CMC Ens was more of a chilly, but dry NW flow look. 

[griteater]

CPC's 8-14 day outlook analog map for Jan 11-17

 

 

I like seeing at least 5 dates that were close to past winter events.  Here's what I have for snow totals that occurred close to those analog dates for Asheville, Charlotte, and Raleigh

 

[BullCityWx]

I was trying to figure out that first event when I had the revelation you meant 1/2/2002

[Cold Rain]

We've been seeing some really good model runs for a while now and the good pattern seems Heismaned at about 10 days. We need to start tracking this daily to see whether or not we're making any real progress or whether we're being fooled again.

We need a new index...something like the SHAFT Index: Snowing Hard And Falling Temps.

If the SHAFT is +5 or higher, that means the pattern change is 10 days or more away. 0 - +5, the pattern change is within 10 days. < 0 depends on the magnitude of the current snowstorm.

[pcbjr]

We've been seeing some really good model runs for a while now and the good pattern seems Heismaned at about 10 days. We need to start tracking this daily to see whether or not we're making any real progress or whether we're being fooled again.

We need a new index...something like the SHAFT Index: Snowing Hard And Falling Temps.

If the SHAFT is +5 or higher, that means the pattern change is 10 days or more away. 0 - +5, the pattern change is within 10 days. < 0 depends on the magnitude of the current snowstorm.

You're not saying we're perpetually shafted, no matter what happens? 

[calculus1]

You're not saying we're perpetually shafted, no matter what happens? 

 

He is saying that...

[pcbjr]

He is saying that...

I know. I was just hoping I was .....

 

PS -

 

Something Happens After February Though

 

Sh** Happens After February Though

[griteater]

We've been seeing some really good model runs for a while now and the good pattern seems Heismaned at about 10 days. We need to start tracking this daily to see whether or not we're making any real progress or whether we're being fooled again.

We need a new index...something like the SHAFT Index: Snowing Hard And Falling Temps.

If the SHAFT is +5 or higher, that means the pattern change is 10 days or more away. 0 - +5, the pattern change is within 10 days. < 0 depends on the magnitude of the current snowstorm.

 

I don't know CR, I made this post on Dec 29th noting that the ensembles where showing the colder air take hold on Jan 12.  Both the GFS Ens and Euro Ens from today show below normal temps (850mb) beginning on Jan 11.  Of course, there's still plenty of time left to get the shaft, but we haven't gone backwards yet.

 

 

Pack - see the last line here from today's CPC 8-14 day disco regarding the SW trough...yes, it's going to take some time for us to get cold, but the ensembles are getting there beginning Jan 12th - I have this documented now so we'll see if it comes to fruition...way out in time obviously.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 12 2016   DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE  FORECAST DOMAIN IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. SPLIT  FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN  STREAM IS FORECAST NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, AN AMPLIFIED  RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN  ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS  RIDGE, A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS RESTRICT  THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH, RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT  ANOMALY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA  FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER, TELECONNECTIONS  FROM A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FAVOR  ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.