2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[snowlover91]

Euro at 186 looks better for the 11th storm. Still not cold enough and I'd want to see the timing overnight vs mid afternoon to maximize potential our chances for a little something wintry. This storm isn't far from being a nice little snow or ice event, it wouldn't take much of a change from the Euro solution to give one imo.

Edit: Euro is VERY close to something big at 186-198. The low deepens and 850s crash about halfway through the system. Only thing keeping it from being a big snow is BL temps in the low 40s and upper 30s and 850s initially above freezing.

[snowlover91]

Euro then has some light snow across the state as a vort drops down on the 12th. Drops a dusting to an inch across a good portion of the state. Pops a strong low just a little too far offshore.. Overall the 11-13th looks interesting on the Euro and the snow map looks decent, especially for the mountains as they get good snow from the storm on the 11th.

[goldman75]

Euro then has some light snow across the state as a vort drops down on the 12th. Drops a dusting to an inch across a good portion of the state. Pops a strong low just a little too far offshore.. Overall the 11-13th looks interesting on the Euro and the snow map looks decent, especially for the mountains as they get good snow from the storm on the 11th.

That little gray blob over horry county, sc is beautiful! Bring a little snow to myrtle beach!

[Jonathan]

Euro at 186 looks better for the 11th storm. Still not cold enough and I'd want to see the timing overnight vs mid afternoon to maximize potential our chances for a little something wintry. This storm isn't far from being a nice little snow or ice event, it wouldn't take much of a change from the Euro solution to give one imo.

Edit: Euro is VERY close to something big at 186-198. The low deepens and 850s crash about halfway through the system. Only thing keeping it from being a big snow is BL temps in the low 40s and upper 30s and 850s initially above freezing.

A couple close calls with plenty of time to improve or lose altogether. Overall, decent model runs tonight.

EPS should be interesting in the morning!

[Cold Rain]

The Lakes low is a staple of modern winters. I expect it will continue to be there. We're going to have to find a way to work around that.

On another note, there's frost all over the place this morning. So, the ground temps are too warm for accumulating snow, but frost can form all over the ground with no problem. Hmmmm....

[strongwxnc]

Time for a new thread ? Maybe a 2016 winter pattern discussion? Sitting on page 119 on this one. Just a thought.

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[packbacker]

Good GEFS run.  Below normal temps beginning Jan 10 and pretty much lasting through the end of the run on the 19th.  Cold highs coming into the Plains.  Blocking up top.  Storm track across the south

Yep, 6z GEFS might have one upped it. ColdRain will approve, highs feeding in at good locations.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

The Lakes low is a staple of modern winters. I expect it will continue to be there. We're going to have to find a way to work around that.

On another note, there's frost all over the place this morning. So, the ground temps are too warm for accumulating snow, but frost can form all over the ground with no problem. Hmmmm....

 

I thought that we already put that argument to bed in past winter's discussions. Has it come up again?

[Cold Rain]

I thought that we already put that argument to bed in past winter's discussions. Has it come up again?

Lol in Banter the other day. Either way, ground temps should be heading south now, so good news all around on that front.

[Cold Rain]

Yep, 6z GEFS might have one upped it. ColdRain will approve, highs feeding in at good locations.

Yes sir! Show me a high pressure in the right spot, then we can start talking legit widespread threat.

[Met1985]

Euro then has some light snow across the state as a vort drops down on the 12th. Drops a dusting to an inch across a good portion of the state. Pops a strong low just a little too far offshore.. Overall the 11-13th looks interesting on the Euro and the snow map looks decent, especially for the mountains as they get good snow from the storm on the 11th.

Yeah looks like we finally start seeing some decent upslope snow events here in the mountains. That is a very good signal for us.

[FallsLake]

The Lakes low is a staple of modern winters. I expect it will continue to be there. We're going to have to find a way to work around that.

On another note, there's frost all over the place this morning. So, the ground temps are too warm for accumulating snow, but frost can form all over the ground with no problem. Hmmmm....

After we get low temps in the upper teens and low 20s for early next week, the ground temps should be fine. 

[packfan98]

Strong signal on the 6z GEFS for a big storm around the 16th-17th.

[tonysc]

I thought that we already put that argument to bed in past winter's discussions. Has it come up again?

Oh it always pops up again along with that pesky sun-angle one too.

[SnowGoose69]

The Lakes low is a staple of modern winters. I expect it will continue to be there. We're going to have to find a way to work around that.

On another note, there's frost all over the place this morning. So, the ground temps are too warm for accumulating snow, but frost can form all over the ground with no problem. Hmmmm....

 

That may be more due to the high clouds over the SE and MA overnight.  Frost much like fog is relatively sensitive to even scattered decks at 200 and above.  I've seen it be 33 all night with a broken deck at 30,000 and then within an hour of it clearing out frost forms everywhere.  It can often still form on cars and what not but it won't be widespread if there are scattered to broken decks

[mackerel_sky]

Lol in Banter the other day. Either way, ground temps should be heading south now, so good news all around on that front.

I only have frost on elevated surfaces, my ground has yet to heal from the heatwave that was December ! !

Looks like I may not hit 40 on Tuesday!? That'll be about 35-40 degrees below what I'm use to!

[Solak]

From RAH this morning - for Monday...

GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES DONT EXPECTANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND IN CENTRAL NC ALTHOUGHFURTHER NORTHEAST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN FARNORTHEAST NC ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

[Met1985]

Looking at the indices this morning the plots for the ao are all over the place from strong negative to weak negative but still negative. The nao looks the best iv seen going into negative territory. It looks to go negative and has slight variations from neutral back to negative. All in all a great look today.

[mackerel_sky]

From RAH this morning - for Monday...

GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES DONT EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND IN CENTRAL NC ALTHOUGH
FURTHER NORTHEAST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN FAR
NORTHEAST NC ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

I think Robert mentioned that a day or two ago, also

[Isopycnic]

I think Robert mentioned that a day or two ago, also

Link?

[Jonathan]

So, the 0z GFS had us solidly below normal for basically the entire run after 1/10 and multiple southern storms, now the 6z only has us below normal for like 6 out of the next 16 days with 2 massive apps cutters. 6z says pattern change shmattern change.

Amazing. Why are we even looking at operational models right now? They need a week to sort things out.

[Spidyr2k]

Link?

https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth?ref=stream&hc_location=timeline

 

http://wxsouth.com/about/

[mackerel_sky]

Link?

[email protected]

[Huffwx]

So, the 0z GFS had us solidly below normal for basically the entire run after 1/10 and multiple southern storms, now the 6z only has us below normal for like 6 out of the next 16 days with 2 massive apps cutters. 6z says pattern change shmattern change.

Amazing. Why are we even looking at operational models right now? They need a week to sort things out.

 70's to 50's is a pattern change. Just not the change we wanted. 

[max100]

Brian Peters forecast on ABC 3340 wants to warm up AROUND THE 18TH???  

[Jon]

So, the 0z GFS had us solidly below normal for basically the entire run after 1/10 and multiple southern storms, now the 6z only has us below normal for like 6 out of the next 16 days with 2 massive apps cutters. 6z says pattern change shmattern change.

Amazing. Why are we even looking at operational models right now? They need a week to sort things out.

Exactly. You shouldn't be looking at the operational runs. You called yourself out! haha...even the GEFS mean I expect will get colder in future runs. You shouldn't expect wall to wall cold and storms after an extremely hot December, but the models are doing everything they can to sniff out the pattern change that's occurring but it's a gradual, not immediate, process. Everything is ok. 

[Wow]

Well the OP GFS finally shows the Jan 17-18 storm that the ensembles have been sniffing out.

 

[Jonathan]

Exactly. You shouldn't be looking at the operational runs. You called yourself out! haha...even the GEFS mean I expect will get colder in future runs. You shouldn't expect wall to wall cold and storms after an extremely hot December, but the models are doing everything they can to sniff out the pattern change that's occurring but it's a gradual, not immediate, process. Everything is ok.

 

Yeah, I guess I just keep looking in hopes of seeing some sort of consistency, whether it be cold OR warm. The GFS op hasn't supported its ensembles at all the past few days.

[packbacker]

Exactly. You shouldn't be looking at the operational runs. You called yourself out! haha...even the GEFS mean I expect will get colder in future runs. You shouldn't expect wall to wall cold and storms after an extremely hot December, but the models are doing everything they can to sniff out the pattern change that's occurring but it's a gradual, not immediate, process. Everything is ok. 

 

 

Agreed!  I think the GEFS looks great, I haven't looked at the EPS today.  

 

These are the latest CPC analogs and the top analogs/periods and the snow that occurred.  Finally seeing good nino analogs show up.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

[U_Thant]

The operational   in me is getting stoked about the pattern finally snapping into "nino mode" for FL, after enduring two and half months of the +AO spawned heat ridge o death here. The strong ST jet looks like it should lock in down here for the duration (JAN/FEB/MAR). No surprise at all that the op models are showing their usual lack of consensus/continuity in strength and timing of features affecting to state out into the extended ranges. However, the pattern is there now - seems like just a matter of time before we're looking at some potential SVR.