packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah man, we're getting there. Hopefully, by the end of Jan, we'll be right where we want to be. It's not really reasonable to expect to go from the worst pattern possible to the best pattern possible without some work. I still feel like that period between 15-25 we stumble into an event. If we get a aleutian low, SE trough with -AO that's about all we can hope for. Would really like to see the PV go down by end of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I still feel like that period between 15-25 we stumble into an event. If we get a aleutian low, SE trough with -AO that's about all we can hope for. Would really like to see the PV go down by end of Jan. What's the latest with the strat? Haven't seen many posts about it lately. NChailstorm seems positive. He is usually right on the money with the solar stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 18z GEFS was best look I've seen for Jan 11 system behind the big cutter. Haven't seen individual members. Big ridge anomaly north of Alaska on ensembles is a common feature in cold air outbreaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What's the latest with the strat? Haven't seen many posts about it lately. NChailstorm seems positive. He is usually right on the money with the solar stuff.I didn't follow his comments because normally solar min / +QBO combo is bad for SSWs, but maybe he can elaborate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What's the latest with the strat? Haven't seen many posts about it lately. NChailstorm seems positive. He is usually right on the money with the solar stuff. The PV is strong, very strong. It's getting pushed around but it hasn't weakened as of today. I wonder if Cohen will be as bullish on Monday...if this fails again then the theory is flawed, majorly flawed. I still have hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Really good post to read from another board before ingesting the 0z suit tonight. Pcroton 11:05 PM GMT on January 02, 2016 You just look at this 500mb pattern and realize...this is a disaster for models to solve. You have multiple split streams and multiple cutoffs. For a model to accurately depict the acceleration and deceleration of these individual features as they drive through the split streams or within the cutoff split stream envelope - and have them precisely link up 7-8 days later downstream is an impossible task. Therefore each run will be different - one run might speed up the northern stream - one run might speed up the southern stream. Your downstream errors are compounded and wildly different solutions evolve. This is why each new run isn't actually getting us closer to the right answer. Each new run at this stage is simply different....and not actually better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That was an excellent post. I sometimes forget how complicated it is. Does make it fun to see what the next solution might be. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I didn't follow his comments because normally solar min / +QBO combo is bad for SSWs, but maybe he can elaborate Maybe the QBO is dropping and that has something to do with it? I don't understand very much about that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Suggest to view Joe Bastadi's Afternoon Saturday Summary. http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/the-saturday-summary-45/ Although above the knowledge level of most in our forum, Joe does a good job of explaining how the bearing behind their forecast where the heat release SSW of Hawaii will build the ridge along West Coast up into Alaska and will deliver the cold goods to the Eastern USA. Joe always proud of his investment into his work Always something to learn when we apply ourselves! It's a good observation. -EPO periods aren't as common in strong ninos, but we have one on our doorstep now, and the location of the Pacific convection is a key reason for it. Below is the latest 10 day -VP anomalies (upper level divergence / convergence shown with vectors) and OLR (shading). The -VP and -OLR have been well west of late matching JB's observations (centered along and just east of the dateline). The key though, is where does it go from here through the rest of the winter. This nino definitely isn't as east based as '83, or especially '98, but there are no guarantees that the -OLR and -VP anoms hang back west...but if they do, it will greatly increase our chances at Jan-Mar being colder than we normally see during super ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If the Brazialian verified, everyone will be in the deep freeze for 50 days.... Chicago Atlanta Now that would be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Also Robert at WXSouth has a very well thought out update for subscribers tonight...give it a read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Also Robert at WXSouth has a very well thought out update for subscribers tonight...give it a read My login didn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 My login didn't work. Gotta pay to play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Gotta pay to play! Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Another different run, it's cold for the DT storm and there's a 989 low off the NC coast teasing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 8 sizable storms for Atl, and two pretty big ones. That sounds about right It's getting cold enough...now for an impulse across that old boundary. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Congratz New England 962mb blizzard DT storm '16 edit still going 960mb** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 NC/TN mountains look to stay snow showery for days...great pattern for ski slopes....lots of cold and real snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Congratz New England 962mb blizzard DT storm '16 edit still going 960mb** 500mb charts looked good to me with the low placement so no need to cliff dive. A lot of this storm is going to depend on how that low to the north tracks or if it is even present. If models lose it, cold air will likely infiltrate father south then what is being modeled. A lot going on in the atmosphere right now, you can't expect the models to produce a extremely accurate picture this far out.. but what they are showing has been shown before at this time period and in the end has brought snowfall to some in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Another different run, it's cold for the DT storm and there's a 989 low off the NC coast teasing What is "DT"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That lakes low holds on through 240 hours on the GFS. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What is "DT"? People have been asking that for years. Some say it is meteorologist Dave Tolleris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What is "DT"?A Met in the mid Atlantic forum. Wx risk . Com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That lakes low holds on through 240 hours on the GFS. Man. True, but if it weakens or dissolves in future runs then the availability of cold air using SE during that time frame increases. I was just making the statement that we are very far out and something like that could throw off solutions if the placement isn't correct, which it likely isn't. That also goes for the LP that tracks from the gulf coast. Still a long time for models to resolve this one. Honestly though, that low pressure could stay there for weeks as far as I am concerned because it provides NWFS to mby for a good 3-4 days, so I would be very satisfied with that solution if it were to happen to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 A Met in the mid Atlantic forum. Wx risk . Com Somehow this isn't the answer I was expecting from you Mack There was a lot going on with that GFS run. Perfect Miller A rainer straight out of the 97-98 winter...all kinds of high latitude ridging and then cutoff lows hanging around the Northeast and SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 True, but if it weakens or dissolves in future runs then the availability of cold air using SE during that time frame increases. I was just making the statement that we are very far out and something like that could throw off solutions if the placement isn't correct, which it likely isn't. That also goes for the LP that tracks from the gulf coast. Still a long time for model to resolve this one. Honestly though, that low pressure could stay there for weeks as far as I am concerned because it provides NWFS to mby for a good 3-4 days, so I would be very satisfied with that solution if it were to happen to come to fruition. The GL low is certainly a major fly in the ointment so to speak. If we can get ridging in that area instead you would see a much colder solution from the models. Being this far out I expect them to continue making big run to run changes. If you look at the 500mb vort map there is so much energy flying around everywhere, as someone posted above, for the models to accurately resolve the interactions of all these pieces of energy and how they play out will be incredibly difficult. I say by Tuesday we should have a general idea of what to expect for the first two storms, the 8-9th and the 11-12th one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The GL low is certainly a major fly in the ointment so to speak. If we can get ridging in that area instead you would see a much colder solution from the models. Being this far out I expect them to continue making big run to run changes. If you look at the 500mb vort map there is so much energy flying around everywhere, as someone posted above, for the models to accurately resolve the interactions of all these pieces of energy and how they play out will be incredibly difficult. I say by Tuesday we should have a general idea of what to expect for the first two storms, the 8-9th and the 11-12th one.Honestly, this low usually there , and gets locked in on early, and never disappears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Honestly, this low usually there , and gets locked in on early, and never disappears Well the 00z GEFS dissipates the GL low fairly quickly and has a coastal for the 11-12th. Not enough to give us anything wintry but good to see at least. Every model run especially the OP runs give new and different solutions, they probably won't catch on for a few more days. The Euro tonight should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Good GEFS run. Below normal temps beginning Jan 10 and pretty much lasting through the end of the run on the 19th. Cold highs coming into the Plains. Blocking up top. Storm track across the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Good GEFS run. Below normal temps beginning Jan 10 and pretty much lasting through the end of the run on the 19th. Cold highs coming into the Plains. Blocking up top. Storm track across the south Yep, looks nice! Definitely better than 18z in which it warmed up towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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