Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yes. That. All the energy flying around, it's gonna be hard at 200+ hours out to focus on any one piece.#splitflowproblemsIt's a good problem to have, folks. Bad news is we may not see a storm until 3-5 days out and scramble to nail it. Exciting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Obviously its the end of the run but the setup and energy scream bigtime SE winter storm......this is one heck of a wedge on the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 #splitflowproblems It's a good problem to have, folks. Bad news is we may not see a storm until 3-5 days out and scramble to nail it. Exciting times ahead. Yep. Hard not to look at the models beyond 5 days but with this kind of setup - a pattern change plus a ton of energy pushed out by the STJ - it's going to be tough going seeing anything far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I thought the 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good, actually flips the EPO and shifts higher heights to Greenland/HB with still a nice -AO...#canonicalnino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Phase 7 MJO (where we are)gets us closer to normal temps/slightly below.It may take another week to get in a favorable phase 8/1/2 to get a shot at winter weather so patience. Solar has been low for a while too that should be good too with the +QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Snow on the 12z GEFS, very far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yep. Hard not to look at the models beyond 5 days but with this kind of setup - a pattern change plus a ton of energy pushed out by the STJ - it's going to be tough going seeing anything far out. Better than following one from 15 days only to watch it fizzle 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I thought the 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good, actually flips the EPO and shifts higher heights to Greenland/HB with still a nice -AO...#canonicalnino? In my humble opinion, something's got to knock that 540 line down further south .... .... just don't see what it is -- yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Snow on the 12z GEFS, very far south...Best post you ever made! Keep up the good work!I'm loving the 384 GFS storm, it basically has a wedge down to Waycross ! ⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Best post you ever made! Keep up the good work! I'm loving the 384 GFS storm, it basically has a wedge down to Waycross ! ⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄ This should be in banter but: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=12&fhour=384¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Snow on the 12z GEFS, very far south... Focused on the Jan 15-18 range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This should be in banter but: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=12&fhour=384¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That is a hellacious sleet and ice storm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Phase 7 MJO (where we are)gets us closer to normal temps/slightly below.It may take another week to get in a favorable phase 8/1/2 to get a shot at winter weather so patience. Solar has been low for a while too that should be good too with the +QBO. The GFS is struggling with the MJO it's the only in phase 7 it's been correcting colder over the last few days . Playing catchup Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Those maps would make damn near our entire forum happy. Time for the Doc to crap the bed within the hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z Euro setup looks mighty nice by Jan 11. Whew, I like. Sprawling 1050 HP dropping down into MT. We'll see if a storm comes to fruition.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z Euro setup looks mighty nice by Jan 11. Whew, I like. Sprawling 1050 HP dropping down into MT. We'll see if a storm comes to fruition.. -32 850's? I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 -32 850's? I'll take it. Spot on, Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 -32 850's? I'll take it. Never good to have the high that far west in MT!! That screams drop straight into TX and maybe/ hopefully , bleed East, while a congrats to Amarillo and OKC, will be in order! Don't see all the excitement , especially if our arctic shot is coming from there, no bueno!Actually looks like it could just as easily slide over the divide and deliver the arctic air to the PacNW, that would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Never good to have the high that far west in MT!! That screams drop straight into TX and maybe/ hopefully , bleed East, while a congrats to Amarillo and OKC, will be in order! Don't see all the excitement , especially if our arctic shot is coming from there, no bueno! Actually looks like it could just as easily slide over the divide and deliver the arctic air to the PacNW, that would be awesome! Wrong..... Our best cold arctic outbreaks come from 1050+ highs in MT. Matter of fact....the Christmas 1983 outbreak (most of us remember that) was from a 1060mb in MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Never good to have the high that far west in MT!! That screams drop straight into TX and maybe/ hopefully , bleed East, while a congrats to Amarillo and OKC, will be in order! Don't see all the excitement , especially if our arctic shot is coming from there, no bueno! Actually looks like it could just as easily slide over the divide and deliver the arctic air to the PacNW, that would be awesome! I don't know Mack; that particular setup would be coming east. It probably would not be conducive to a storm, but definitely a major arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Wrong..... Our best cold arctic outbreaks come from 1050+ highs in MT.I thought our last two winters' single digit lows , came from a high that dropped into MN or the Dakotas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I thought our last two winters' single digit lows , came from a high that dropped into MN or the Dakotas? Those suppress the heck out of everything so if you want winter weather you don't necessarily want that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I don't know Mack; that particular setup would be coming east. It probably would not be conducive to a storm, but definitely a major arctic outbreak.I'm just having flashbacks to watching TWC 7 day planner! Everytime it showed brutally cold air in NW MT, like highs in the -10s, -20s, it would somehow end up in the NW or buried in TX, but I'm old and memories are murky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Wrong..... Our best cold arctic outbreaks come from 1050+ highs in MT. Yeah, definitely can be true, the Dec 89 outbreak which led to the SC/GA/FL snow came from that area. It all depends on timing in the end of a disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Gonna be a fun ride on this forum to go from warm with plenty of moisture to cold and dry. Too many people were drawn in by "favorable patterns" and took it to mean a guaranteed storm. Gonna enjoy the cold weather while we have it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah, definitely can be true, the Dec 89 outbreak which led to the SC/GA/FL snow came from that area. It all depends on timing in the end of a disturbance. Agree, and being selfish (and referring to a couple posts earlier), suppression can be the ticket in the deep SE. (I'll need to go back and look, but I think 1899 was also based on a major NW HP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah, definitely can be true, the Dec 89 outbreak which led to the SC/GA/FL snow came from that area. It all depends on timing in the end of a disturbance. Just went back and looked at the Christmas 1983 arctic outbreak. It came from a 1060mb high pressure in MT. This is our ticket for cold air but it will be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Agree, and being selfish (and referring to a couple posts earlier), suppression can be the ticket in the deep SE. (I'll need to go back and look, but I think 1899 was also based on a major NW HP) I would love to track a winter storm for you guys. That 1899 made almost everybody happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just went back and looked at the Christmas 1983 arctic outbreak. It came from a 1060mb high pressure in MT. This is our ticket for cold air but it will be dry. Just looking at the map you can see it will squash everything to the south. **maybe a small chance of something running through the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 If my memory is correct, March 1980 also featured a +1050 HP in the northern plains (perhaps a little further east in the Dakotas). Bottom line is such highs assure the most elusive ingridient for us: a bonifide cold source. That's a great sign, in my opinion, when coupled with an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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