burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 ^ Euro Ens has below normal temps from Jan 11 to Jan 17 (end of run). Hasn't changed there. It's kind of hard to get winter storms in our forum you know Personally I'm amped for what the models show even though I'll probably be out of the country when the fireworks start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 True. We're losing the storms already. Now we're beginning to lose the teleconnections. No -NAO in sight after being advertised for days, which means any cold we get will be transient at best. I'm a big fan of -NAO's and what they mean for us down here, so no argument from me there. There are other ways to get sustained cold periods though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 EPS SLP spread is narrowing, taking away the OhV runners and now between apps runners and coastals...this is starting to feel like a Dec 09 type deal with a coastal but no HP where we need it. Need a HP to bleed over the lakes into the NE. That day 7-8 SLP is still going to set the stage for whatever happens with DT's event. Yep screams 12/18/2009 and 2/11/83 even with a perfect track for NC. 12/18/09: Weak HP in first image giving us hope with a great low track, then the HP is gone 2/11/83 Top GEFS analogs for % >2" valid on 1/12 12/03/00 A weenie example of a coastal with stout CAD...this isn't an analog just an example of deep cold coming in US and setting up a CAD event w/ coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I just want to see if the next big arctic blast around 11-13th, actually comes to fruition? And not the super cold look that is sometimes overdone in the long range by the models? This Tuesday -Wednesday cold snap ended up trending colder as we got closer. The storms aren't looking great as they once possibly were, so if the cold prospects start to go poof, it'll be cliff city! I'm not sure I understand the negativity this morning. Every "threat" was out around 300 hours. the "threat" next week was never a threat except for like a week ago when it was in 300 hour territory. Right now practically every model and ENS is dropping a big PV into the conus with a cold and stormy look. That literally is step number one. That is what we have to get to. Now if in a week that has gone *poof* then understandable but for now we should be overjoyed a pattern is showing up that is conducive to winter threats. Until then it's just fantasy land storms that are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I agree, big dogs never work us, just everyone NW of us. Simple weak waves/overrunning, our standard 2-4" mixed bag of taint would feel like winning the lottery. A couple of those this winter would be great, kind of what I am hoping for best base.Good to see a post from you! I thought you changed your name to Jonathan ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I'm not sure I understand the negativity this morning. Every "threat" was out around 300 hours. the "threat" next week was never a threat except for like a week ago when it was in 300 hour territory. Right now practically every model and ENS is dropping a big PV into the conus with a cold and stormy look. That literally is step number one. That is what we have to get to. Now if in a week that has gone *poof* then understandable but for now we should be overjoyed a pattern is showing up that is conducive to winter threats. Until then it's just fantasy land storms that are useless. I think the first storm "threat" of the season got to some people (excitement)...This never once plotted even fantasy snow for us, so it can't be that much of a letdown...Never looked good to me. We still have an awesome pattern coming and seldom does the SE cash in before our friends to the north at the beginning of good patterns. As much as the models and this El Nino will try, going from a record breaking warm end to December to a snow 15 days later is incredibly difficult. This pattern will try, but it's a complete 180. The cold coming in will hopefully set the stage, I'm not at all that worried for snow-producing storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I kind of feel like that whole thing about wisdom knowing tomato is a fruit but you don't put it in fruit salad. Those LR threats always look great but wisdom says you shouldn't really pay attention to them. I always thought anything in the first half of Jan. was a long shot. I've leaned more on the second half of Jan. Pattern changes always take longer to hit than the models say. Finally don't you always clean up on these storms that look like they'll underpeform? You're right about the tomatoes. And I'm not sure why I'm so worked up. I had a target date in my head of JAN 15 for the good stuff to start. Maybe it was that damned snowlover. (jk man, you're cool!) As far as cleaning up, you must be thinking of Disc, James or FROSTY. Then there is no use coming here and following things if you already know what's going to happen. It's the thrill of the chase, Brick. It's just like that girl Vanessa I hit up yesterday. I know how it ends with her every time, yet she's so damned good looking I just can't stop trying. I initiate convo, she teases like she's interested, we set a date night, then my texts are ignoed. I'll be mad for a day or two, let it simmer a week, then text her again. Such is life. I'm not sure I understand the negativity this morning. Every "threat" was out around 300 hours. the "threat" next week was never a threat except for like a week ago when it was in 300 hour territory. Right now practically every model and ENS is dropping a big PV into the conus with a cold and stormy look. That literally is step number one. That is what we have to get to. Now if in a week that has gone *poof* then understandable but for now we should be overjoyed a pattern is showing up that is conducive to winter threats. Until then it's just fantasy land storms that are useless. You're right, burger. First half of JAN was just table setting time. Pre-game warm-ups. Kia NBA shootaround. Good to see a post from you! I thought you changed your name to Jonathan ! Look man, someone has to balance out the mojo in here. Too much optimism yesterday. Some folks were sounding like Lebron James with the snowstorm threats. "Not 4, not 5, not 6, not 7..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yep screams 12/18/2009 and 2/11/83 even with a perfect track for NC. 12/18/09: Weak HP in first image giving us hope with a great low track, then the HP is gone 2/11/83 Top GEFS analogs for % >2" valid on 1/12 12/03/00 A weenie example of a coastal with stout CAD...this isn't an analog just an example of deep cold coming in US and setting up a CAD event w/ coastal storm. Yeah, you can see the issue for us, but the past 2 winters have been this setup, actually this potential setup is better than the past 2 winters. This is a better version of Jan 2014, IMO. I am hopeful we see an accumulating snow before Jan 20th, as I think we have a 7-10 day reshuffle after that and then I hope we get 3 of 4 week in Feb with a serviceable pattern. First things first, let's get the Jan 10th pattern here :-) Blocky strong nino's with active STJ are money for us, usually, they are so rare so it would be a real gut shot to put up a clunker this winter. If we are going to break our ridiculous 12 year streak of a sub 10" season this would be it. I sure have jinxed us now . Reason I am expecting 5" this winter is that we just can't get lucky, it's been forever since we got lucky...maybe that changes this winter, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Step one for me is ALWAYS get the cold air. That's coming. R-E-L-A-X folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The snow will come. Maybe not next week, but the week after, or the week after that. We have had a lot of precip since the start of fall, and that doesn't look like it is going to change any time soon. When we had rain, it stuck around for two or three days at a time. All we need is the cold, and all the indicies point to that coming, too. The pattern is ripe for snow this winter. We just have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah, you can see the issue for us, but the past 2 winters have been this setup, actually this potential setup is better than the past 2 winters. This is a better version of Jan 2014, IMO. I am hopeful we see an accumulating snow before Jan 20th, as I think we have a 7-10 day reshuffle after that and then I hope we get 3 of 4 week in Feb with a serviceable pattern. First things first, let's get the Jan 10th pattern here :-) Blocky strong nino's with active STJ are money for us, usually, they are so rare so it would be a real gut shot to put up a clunker this winter. If we are going to break our ridiculous 12 year streak of a sub 10" season this would be it. I sure have jinxed us now . Reason I am expecting 5" this winter is that we just can't get lucky, it's been forever since we got lucky...maybe that changes this winter, maybe not. I agree, and with the 2011 look. IIRC that also started around mid Jan. as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Step one for me is ALWAYS get the cold air. That's coming. R-E-L-A-X folks. Yea, not sure why more aren't excited...I mean having the cold is the very first step. I love that it seems every model run agrees cold air is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Step one for me is ALWAYS get the cold air. That's coming. R-E-L-A-X folks. Boom! Ca$h post right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yea, not sure why more aren't excited...I mean having the cold is the very first step. I love that it seems every model run agrees cold air is coming. I know most of us are looking for a winter storm, but cold is also part of winter (which we haven't seen much of this year). In the short term we're going to see a nice cold shot early next week. Many of us will see high in the 30s Monday and possible some teens for Tuesday morning. I for one will enjoy this first real arctic air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I know most of us are looking for a winter storm, but cold is also part of winter (which we haven't seen much of this year). In the short term we're going to see a nice cold shot early next week. Many of us will see high in the 30s Monday and possible some teens for Tuesday morning. I for one will enjoy this first real arctic air mass. Agreed. I am sick of weeding the flower beds, mowing the grass, getting stung by bees, and swatting the gnats away. We need winter to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Agreed. I am sick of weeding the flower beds, mowing the grass, getting stung by bees, and swatting the gnats away. We need winter to show up.I'm telling y'all, I have new growth on my Lantana! That is a plant that is a heat loving plant, and very sensitive to cold and frost! It is remarkable to see and shows how crazy this heat has been! Cantore even said in the fall that he knew when he had his first frost because his Lantana turned black! Next Tuesday looks like our coldest day of the year so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I'm not worried at all and still think we see a legit threat January 10-15th. The cold is inbound and there is a ton of energy flying around, even at medium range models will have trouble resolving things (interestingly enough the GFS just passed the Euro in verification scores per wxbell). I expect our real snow/ice threat will show up in the 96-132 hour range. The key takeaway from GFS and euro ensembles is that there will be multiple storms and systems coming up. As we get closer the details will resolve and imo we see some wintry weather from one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z GFS is the most important run since 6z...good luck to all and I bet it looks nothing like 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I'm not worried at all and still think we see a legit threat January 10-15th. The cold is inbound and there is a ton of energy flying around, even at medium range models will have trouble resolving things (interestingly enough the GFS just passed the Euro in verification scores per wxbell). I expect our real snow/ice threat will show up in the 96-132 hour range. The key takeaway from GFS and euro ensembles is that there will be multiple storms and systems coming up. As we get closer the details will resolve and imo we see some wintry weather from one of them. Agreed, but I do wonder how long this pattern actually lasts, not sure we will make it to the 20th. I really think eventually we are going to move to a more canonical strong nino look, warm NW/northern US with cold plains to SE/MA. Is the W/NW US really going to be cold from Nov-March, it only shows it colder there the next 15 days...so far not a typical strong nino. Where is the pattern below.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Agreed, but I do wonder how long this pattern actually lasts, not sure we will make it to the 20th. I really think eventually we are going to move to a more canonical strong nino look, warm NW/northern US with cold plains to SE/MA. Is the W/NW US really going to be cold from Nov-March, it only shows it colder there the next 15 days...so far not a typical strong nino. Where is the pattern below.... We need that west-based -NAO/baffin bay/labrador sea block badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Another train wreck of a 12z run at least for next weekend. Hopefully Europe will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Another train wreck of a 12z run at least for next weekend. Hopefully Europe will save us Well the track is really good lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 LOL...GFS conus trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well the track is really good lol Sent from my iPhone I think that makes it more painful. It's just finding ways not to snow...not unexpected I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Great setup after 200 on the 12z GFS. Big time cold comes down with energy in the four corners. Given the setup it would likely be a little more suppressed than what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC has a Miller B that runs up through TN and transfers in VA but drops big time cold into the south out around 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Great setup after 200 on the 12z GFS. Big time cold comes down with energy in the four corners. Given the setup it would likely be a little more suppressed than what the GFS is showing. I was under the impression the whole damn thing was a trainwreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Op models continue to struggle with multiple waves coming out of the southwest. Probably gonna take till next week until we get clarity on storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Op models continue to struggle with multiple waves coming out of the southwest. Probably gonna take till next week until we get clarity on storms Yes. That. All the energy flying around, it's gonna be hard at 200+ hours out to focus on any one piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I was under the impression the whole damn thing was a trainwreck.That was the 6z! 12z is $$$$! 18z will probably revert to crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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