2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[PackGrad05]

So what we're saying is that all of the talk on the last 3-4 pages has now been squashed by the new runs?  I love meteorology.

[FallsLake]

So what we're saying is that all of the talk on the last 3-4 pages has now been squashed by the new runs?  I love meteorology.

Just looking at the 6z GFS and as Burger would say "there's ducks on the pond". I still think we have a good chance of some kind of SE winter storm (...and not just mountains) during the next couple of weeks.

[packbacker]

I wish there was some teleconnection powers with California. 

 

4 storms in 7 days on the GFS with over 4 feet possible. And many more winter storms after that in the medium to long range!

 

Was actually looking at this the other day....if you take the cold Jan nino's and break them up between the snowy v/s non-snowy you see that the snowy ones had a wet Cali and the non-snowy were uncharacteristically dry.  I guess this isn't all that surprising, if its BN for temps with an active STJ you get snow.  Avg for these 9 snowy winters was 10" and even the 3 non-snowy had a few inches.  SOI being neutral/positive for 2 of the 3 winters is interesting too.

 

It sticks out like a sore thumb when looking at the precip anomalies...

[packbacker]

EPS SLP spread is narrowing, taking away the OhV runners and now between apps runners and coastals...this is starting to feel like a Dec 09 type deal with a coastal but no HP where we need it.  Need a HP to bleed over the lakes into the NE.  That day 7-8 SLP is still going to set the stage for whatever happens with DT's event.

[packbacker]

GEFS coastal signal for day 9-15...

 

 

[FallsLake]

EPS SLP spread is narrowing, taking away the OhV runners and now between apps runners and coastals...this is starting to feel like a Dec 09 type deal with a coastal but no HP where we need it.  Need a HP to bleed over the lakes into the NE.  That day 7-8 SLP is still going to set the stage for whatever happens with DT's event.

6z GFS has a storm in the Gulf that runs up the coast and then ots.  But also would not have sufficient cold. As you stated, in the coming days we will need to see a high modeled better to our north for any hope.

[mackerel_sky]

Was it atleast super cold at the end of the Euro, like it has been?

[WXinCanton]

Was it atleast super cold at the end of the Euro, like it has been?

 

You can get that info for free here:

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

 

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

You can get that info for free here:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Thanks for the link!

My 2nd favorite weather info source, TWC , just showed their January temp forecast and it had most of the SE with above normal, even as they were showing that massive arctic dump at the end of next week!

[Jon]

EPS SLP spread is narrowing, taking away the OhV runners and now between apps runners and coastals...this is starting to feel like a Dec 09 type deal with a coastal but no HP where we need it. Need a HP to bleed over the lakes into the NE. That day 7-8 SLP is still going to set the stage for whatever happens with DT's event.

Yeah, like I said I don't think we get a stout HP which is needed for some real fun, it's more of a CAD or bust storm. We still need some sort of high to produce it though and no signs are pointing towards that for me.

[Jonathan]

We got suckered in again. Just like last winter. First two weeks of January are already toast.

Not only are the storm threats disappearing, but so is the cold and all of this great blocking every model was showing the last week of December.

We'll learn one day. (Actually, no we won't.)

[FallsLake]

Thanks for the link!

My 2nd favorite weather info source, TWC , just showed their January temp forecast and it had most of the SE with above normal, even as they were showing that massive arctic dump at the end of next week!

They will most likely lose that prediction(simple statistics). We will most definitely average below normal the next two weeks. Really no indications that the last two weeks will be above normal; or above normal enough to push our one month average above.

[franklin NCwx]

We got suckered in again. Just like last winter. First two weeks of January are already toast.

Not only are the storm threats disappearing, but so is the cold and all of this great blocking every model was showing the last week of December.

We'll learn one day. (Actually, no we won't.)

not sure if you're trying to be sarcastic or not, but it's all still on the table.

[FallsLake]

We got suckered in again. Just like last winter. First two weeks of January are already toast.

Not only are the storm threats disappearing, but so is the cold and all of this great blocking every model was showing the last week of December.

We'll learn one day. (Actually, no we won't.)

 

I actually think we could still see something the next two weeks. Cold air still around, we just need things to line up right.

[franklin NCwx]

Thanks for the link!

My 2nd favorite weather info source, TWC , just showed their January temp forecast and it had most of the SE with above normal, even as they were showing that massive arctic dump at the end of next week!

I guess they're using the cfs but January should finish below normal.

[isohume]

So what we're saying is that all of the talk on the last 3-4 pages has now been squashed by the new runs?  I love meteorology.

 

Sometimes the models wont consistently show what you want. Especially the farther out in time you go.  

[Jonathan]

I actually think we could still see something the next two weeks. Cold air still around, we just need things to line up right.

Thing is, we don't need the cold air "around", we need it HERE lol.

All that talk of the vaunted -NAO and I haven't heard it mentioned the past two days. Every storm is still cutting just like December or is moving in tandem with a northern stream system and scouring what little cold air we do have around out.

What happened to that massive +PNA? All I see are storms crashing into the Pacific NW plowing right through the western "ridge" which also happened all December.

I just feel like the models went full beast mode way too early and now they're slowly backing off with each run.

[burgertime]

Give me the PV dropping like the models have consistently shown and I'll take my chances. We need the cold in here first, that tends to be how we get winter storms. Storms usually don't cut into the PV dropping, with that you'll have a suppressed track after it comes down. Every year we do this where we lock on to an individual storm showing 200 hours out and it never verifies, but if the pattern is right something usually pops up 3 - 4 days out. Let's get the pattern first, then worry about individual storms. 

[griteater]

^ Euro Ens has below normal temps from Jan 11 to Jan 17 (end of run). Hasn't changed there. It's kind of hard to get winter storms in our forum you know

[packbacker]

^ Euro Ens has below normal temps from Jan 11 to Jan 17 (end of run). Hasn't changed there. It's kind of hard to get winter storms in our forum you know

Well this is the best pattern we have seen advertisered since Dec/Jan 2011, IMO. It's never like shooting fish in a barrel for us so I get that...

Something is wrong when I am the most bullish, Lol.

[Jonathan]

^ Euro Ens has below normal temps from Jan 11 to Jan 17 (end of run). Hasn't changed there. It's kind of hard to get winter storms in our forum you know

Of course it's hard. But we had 3-4 days of everyone harping up 2, 3, 4 storm threats the first half of January and now we're watching them fizzle out one by one.

"Oh, the first storm is setting the table for the second one." Then "looks like the first storm cuts, but there's another one behind it. That's the one that will pull the cold air behind it..." How long do we keep doing that?

Yes, it's hard to get winter storms (although I stand a better chance than the GSP to RAH guys, but I thought we were heading into this super SE pattern extravaganza with a +PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO combo, the PV dropping south and an active STJ.

But we're not.

Again, should've known better.

[griteater]

Having said that, I do 'fear' a cold bias in the extended, but we'll see. The date when the below normal temps were set to begin in earnest hasn't changed - actually moved up a day to Jan 11

[FallsLake]

Indices still looking ok this morning:

PNA - Still averages positive in the LR. All member runs agree.

NAO - Averages slightly negative in the medium range but slightly postive in the LR. Fairly tight member agreement for LR

AO - Still diving negative. Averages around -2 with a slight uptic towards the end. Tight agreement with some scattering late.

 

​

[Jonathan]

Indices still looking ok this morning:

PNA - Still averages positive in the LR. All member runs agree.

NAO - Averages slightly negative in the medium range but slightly postive in the LR. Fairly tight member agreement for LR

AO - Still diving negative. Averages around -2 with a slight uptic towards the end. Tight agreement with some scattering late.

​

And until that changes, we go from multiple wintry threats to lots of rain and just one needing to thread the needle to get a dusting.

Big change from the past few days.

[griteater]

Of course it's hard. But we had 3-4 days of everyone harping up 2, 3, 4 storm threats the first half of January and now we're watching them fizzle out one by one.

"Oh, the first storm is setting the table for the second one." Then "looks like the first storm cuts, but there's another one behind it. That's the one that will pull the cold air behind it..." How long do we keep doing that?

Yes, it's hard to get winter storms (although I stand a better chance than the GSP to RAH guys, but I thought we were heading into this super SE pattern extravaganza with a +PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO combo, the PV dropping south and an active STJ.

But we're not.

Again, should've known better.

I guess each individual has their own interpretation style based on what's being posted.  All we've seen thus far are cheap teases on the models, then a bit more stable cold pattern if the models (ens) hold that look

[Cold Rain]

In a split flow pattern, all we need, once the cold air gets established in/near the area, is a southern wave taking a good track on the heels of a northern wave, moving across the northern tier of the US (not way up in Canada). Sure, we can get a big dog, but we risk cutting/track issues.

If a split flow sets up and there's cold over here that can be tapped, we will get snow, and possibly several rounds of it. Models are going to struggle mightily resolving the features in and the interactions of the streams. Chasing 200+ hour systems is going to be very stressful and generally not productive. So don't get too discouraged. We get cold and a split flow, you better get your sleds ready. That's all I'm saying!

[Jonathan]

I guess each individual has their own interpretation style based on what's being posted. All we've seen thus far are cheap teases on the models, then a bit more stable cold pattern if the pattern holds

True. We're losing the storms already. Now we're beginning to lose the teleconnections. No -NAO in sight after being advertised for days, which means any cold we get will be transient at best.

[packbacker]

In a split flow pattern, all we need, once the cold air gets established in/near the area, is a southern wave taking a good track on the heels of a northern wave, moving across the northern tier of the US (not way up in Canada). Sure, we can get a big dog, but we risk cutting/track issues.

If a split flow sets up and there's cold over here that can be tapped, we will get snow, and possibly several rounds of it. Models are going to struggle mightily resolving the features in and the interactions of the streams. Chasing 200+ hour systems is going to be very stressful and generally not productive. So don't get too discouraged. We get cold and a split flow, you better get your sleds ready. That's all I'm saying!

 

I agree, big dogs never work us, just everyone NW of us.  Simple weak waves/overrunning, our standard 2-4" mixed bag of taint would feel like winning the lottery.  A couple of those this winter would be great, kind of what I am hoping for best base.

[burgertime]

Of course it's hard. But we had 3-4 days of everyone harping up 2, 3, 4 storm threats the first half of January and now we're watching them fizzle out one by one.

"Oh, the first storm is setting the table for the second one." Then "looks like the first storm cuts, but there's another one behind it. That's the one that will pull the cold air behind it..." How long do we keep doing that?

Yes, it's hard to get winter storms (although I stand a better chance than the GSP to RAH guys, but I thought we were heading into this super SE pattern extravaganza with a +PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO combo, the PV dropping south and an active STJ.

But we're not.

Again, should've known better.

 

I kind of feel like that whole thing about wisdom knowing tomato is a fruit but you don't put it in fruit salad. Those LR threats always look great but wisdom says you shouldn't really pay attention to them. I always thought anything in the first half of Jan. was a long shot. I've leaned more on the second half of Jan. Pattern changes always take longer to hit than the models say.

 

Finally don't you always clean up on these storms that look like they'll underpeform? 

[mackerel_sky]

In a split flow pattern, all we need, once the cold air gets established in/near the area, is a southern wave taking a good track on the heels of a northern wave, moving across the northern tier of the US (not way up in Canada). Sure, we can get a big dog, but we risk cutting/track issues.

If a split flow sets up and there's cold over here that can be tapped, we will get snow, and possibly several rounds of it. Models are going to struggle mightily resolving the features in and the interactions of the streams. Chasing 200+ hour systems is going to be very stressful and generally not productive. So don't get too discouraged. We get cold and a split flow, you better get your sleds ready. That's all I'm saying!

I just want to see if the next big arctic blast around 11-13th, actually comes to fruition? And not the super cold look that is sometimes overdone in the long range by the models? This Tuesday -Wednesday cold snap ended up trending colder as we got closer. The storms aren't looking great as they once possibly were, so if the cold prospects start to go poof, it'll be cliff city!