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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Would be too warm for most since it cuts. Not putting much weight into the GFS this far out though, last run it had a weak low over WV now it has a 995mb low cutting through western TN and 12z run earlier today had a low in the GOM. We've gone from a GOM storm to a strong cutter in just 2 runs lol. Just goes to show what someone mentioned a few pages back, griteater maybe, about how the GFS struggles in El Niño winters due to how it handles southern stream waves.

 

Yeah, I spoke too soon. 

 

I mean, I wouldn't put much weight to GFS past 144 hours either, El Nino or not. I was saying it was looking better than that strange 18z run, but that ULL wasn't much other than giving us a nice cold trailing behind and maybe a minor high-elevation snow event from the ULL. 

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So now instead of the two 1/8-9 storms setting the table for the 1/11 storm...we push everything back and the two 1/11 storms set the table for...nada. Cold air. Woo!

Patience :) The GFS looks too amped with the storm and has gone from a GOM low on the 11th to a strong cutter in just two runs. Big changes like this always send a red flag to me that the model is having a hard time figuring things out, especially considering the GEFS at 18z had a suppressed GOM low it tells me the Op GFS is having a hard time. Euro and Euro ensembles are the main ones to watch at this range, mainly the trends and not specific details.

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Yeah, I spoke too soon.

I mean, I wouldn't put much weight to GFS past 144 hours either, El Nino or not. I was saying it was looking better than that strange 18z run, but that ULL wasn't much other than giving us a nice cold trailing behind and maybe a minor high-elevation snow event from the ULL.

One thing for sure about the GFS, it consistently gives a different solution every run past 144 hours! I definitely would prefer the stronger storm, if it's not cold enough to snow then we need the stronger storm to drag down the cold air and help set up for the next system. There is so much energy floating around in the January 8-15th range showing up that I expect all models, even the Euro, to have a hard time resolving things even in the 5-7 day range.

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CMC looks like a more realistic version of the GFS...has some CAD signatures but suspect given the lack of cold air to our north on it. Also doesn't have the PV dropping at all.

Looks like it amplifies the 8-9th storm more and is setting the stage for a big outbreak of snow across the Midwest at 174.. It should give a different solution for the 11-12th storm from the GFS.

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GFS has the big one coming JAn 17-18.  Makes sense as our cold air won't arrive until after the PV dumps in after the Jan 10 sgorm.

 

Yea I said before I feel like that's a better time frame. GEFS hopefully will look a little more realistic as I could see a threat now coming before that. 

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GFS has a snow threat coming JAn 17-18. Makes sense as our cold air won't arrive until after the PV dumps in after the Jan 10 storm.

Similar to what Cosgrove said, 11-12th minor event that sets the stage for a big one the 17-21st. However I don't believe the GFS solution at all, it's good entertainment though :)

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Yea I use SV. They tend to have the fastest maps. WxBell I feel like has better graphics, but I prefer the faster output.

Thanks for the updates, they are much appreciated! I think the overall trend we can get from the models is that there will be multiple systems to track beginning January 8-9th with cold air somewhat close by. The key will be track and intensity. Also there is strong agreement for major cold coming down after the 11-12th storm. That's all we can ask for is a favorable pattern with an active STJ, now we just have to wait!

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Euro at 150 has a weak cad signature with moisture inbound. Not cold enough for ice though, 1032 high in SE Canada. Also 1000mb low in the OK panhandle region.

Looks like first storm, January 8-9th, cuts and heads through the Great Lakes. Could be setting the stage nicely for the 11-12th storm.

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I'll take anything at this point:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...

MON/MON NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA (ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
A BRIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY) WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA (TONIGHT) AND THE GREAT LAKES
(SUN)...WITH ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION ANTICIPATED AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC (SUN NIGHT) AND
CAROLINAS (MONDAY). THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...THOUGH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TODAY WILL EJECT ESE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH SUN NIGHT/MON...NEAR OR
PERHAPS WITHIN THE NARROW SPATIO-TEMPORAL WINDOW IN WHICH
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES MAY OCCUR. EVEN IF SOME
INTERACTION WERE TO OCCUR...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN CENTRAL NC DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE PATTERN.

THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVA
MONDAY EVENING (00-06Z TUE)...POOR DIURNAL TIMING
AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ATTENDANT STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
NC.PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG DPVA IN THE EVENING...SCATTERED
CU MAY DEVELOP BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN (VIA COLD ADVECTION) DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH LCL`S IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER WETBULB PROFILES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING...AN ISOLATED (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLURRY CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT PLUMMETING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH ~10
MB PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED BETWEEN 00-12Z TUE...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS TUE
MORNING.

TUE-FRI: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE/WED AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. -VINCENT

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