WxBlue Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Would be too warm for most since it cuts. Not putting much weight into the GFS this far out though, last run it had a weak low over WV now it has a 995mb low cutting through western TN and 12z run earlier today had a low in the GOM. We've gone from a GOM storm to a strong cutter in just 2 runs lol. Just goes to show what someone mentioned a few pages back, griteater maybe, about how the GFS struggles in El Niño winters due to how it handles southern stream waves. Yeah, I spoke too soon. I mean, I wouldn't put much weight to GFS past 144 hours either, El Nino or not. I was saying it was looking better than that strange 18z run, but that ULL wasn't much other than giving us a nice cold trailing behind and maybe a minor high-elevation snow event from the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 So now instead of the two 1/8-9 storms setting the table for the 1/11 storm...we push everything back and the two 1/11 storms set the table for...nada. Cold air. Woo! Patience The GFS looks too amped with the storm and has gone from a GOM low on the 11th to a strong cutter in just two runs. Big changes like this always send a red flag to me that the model is having a hard time figuring things out, especially considering the GEFS at 18z had a suppressed GOM low it tells me the Op GFS is having a hard time. Euro and Euro ensembles are the main ones to watch at this range, mainly the trends and not specific details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah, I spoke too soon. I mean, I wouldn't put much weight to GFS past 144 hours either, El Nino or not. I was saying it was looking better than that strange 18z run, but that ULL wasn't much other than giving us a nice cold trailing behind and maybe a minor high-elevation snow event from the ULL. One thing for sure about the GFS, it consistently gives a different solution every run past 144 hours! I definitely would prefer the stronger storm, if it's not cold enough to snow then we need the stronger storm to drag down the cold air and help set up for the next system. There is so much energy floating around in the January 8-15th range showing up that I expect all models, even the Euro, to have a hard time resolving things even in the 5-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC looks like a more realistic version of the GFS...has some CAD signatures but suspect given the lack of cold air to our north on it. Also doesn't have the PV dropping at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS has a snow threat coming JAn 17-18. Makes sense as our cold air won't arrive until after the PV dumps in after the Jan 10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC looks like a more realistic version of the GFS...has some CAD signatures but suspect given the lack of cold air to our north on it. Also doesn't have the PV dropping at all. Looks like it amplifies the 8-9th storm more and is setting the stage for a big outbreak of snow across the Midwest at 174.. It should give a different solution for the 11-12th storm from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Once of the craziest anomaly maps I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS has the big one coming JAn 17-18. Makes sense as our cold air won't arrive until after the PV dumps in after the Jan 10 sgorm. Yea I said before I feel like that's a better time frame. GEFS hopefully will look a little more realistic as I could see a threat now coming before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yea I said before I feel like that's a better time frame. GEFS hopefully will look a little more realistic as I could see a threat now coming before that. Yes thats possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS has a snow threat coming JAn 17-18. Makes sense as our cold air won't arrive until after the PV dumps in after the Jan 10 storm. Similar to what Cosgrove said, 11-12th minor event that sets the stage for a big one the 17-21st. However I don't believe the GFS solution at all, it's good entertainment though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC ENS looks more in line with GFS and Euro runs tonight (overall cold look). I think it's safe to say the big pattern change is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC ENS tonight basically has shot after shot after shot of winter weather for the SE in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC puts down some snow or ice in western NC damming regions. You can see it after the storm passes too as it drops the temps more than surrounding areas. It has a 1038 high in southern Canada trying to wedge down into the typical CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GEFS has a Miller A look just past 200. We need that to be around hour 100. Big cold coming down so again agreement on a major pattenr change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC ENS tonight basically has shot after shot after shot of winter weather for the SE in the LR. Do you use a different service than wxbell? Their ensembles don't update until 3-4am for the 00z runs which seems like a long delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Do you use a different service than wxbell? Their ensembles don't update until 3-4am for the 00z runs which seems like a long delay. Yea I use SV. They tend to have the fastest maps. WxBell I feel like has better graphics, but I prefer the faster output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 ^ I think Burger meant the CMC Op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yea I use SV. They tend to have the fastest maps. WxBell I feel like has better graphics, but I prefer the faster output. Thanks for the updates, they are much appreciated! I think the overall trend we can get from the models is that there will be multiple systems to track beginning January 8-9th with cold air somewhat close by. The key will be track and intensity. Also there is strong agreement for major cold coming down after the 11-12th storm. That's all we can ask for is a favorable pattern with an active STJ, now we just have to wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 ^ I think Burger meant the CMC Op run I see the CAD...but it just doesn't look good to me? 1028 high that isn't exactly stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Tall W Canada ridge on the GEFS. Drops cold vortex down into SE Canada. Looks Euro Ens like. Remains to be seen whether this kind of favorable cold pattern will hold as we go in time or if it will moderate (cold bias in extended range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I see the CAD...but it just doesn't look good to me? 1028 high that isn't exactly stationary.The 8-9th doesn't look good but 11-12th storm has a 1038 high in a decent position for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 00z GEFS - Not a bad track but that wimpy high stuck up in Canada is going to have to get further south to get something frozen out of this in the SE. CAD or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Models struggling on which s/w to amplify. Hard to buy the cmc solution on the two storms. There doesn't appear to be enough spacing between the two waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 ^ Guess the storm bombing near Greenland could help keep the high in position longer ! But that usually doesn't work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Euro at 150 has a weak cad signature with moisture inbound. Not cold enough for ice though, 1032 high in SE Canada. Also 1000mb low in the OK panhandle region. Looks like first storm, January 8-9th, cuts and heads through the Great Lakes. Could be setting the stage nicely for the 11-12th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The doc looked like dog poooop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The doc looked like dog poooop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Euro run basically has the 8-9th storm as a cutter then nothing else through 240. There is a low developing in southern Texas at 240 and energy diving down, a good look, but nothing from now through 240 to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I wish there was some teleconnection powers with California. 4 storms in 7 days on the GFS with over 4 feet possible. And many more winter storms after that in the medium to long range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I'll take anything at this point: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MON/MON NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED INTHE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA (ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OFA BRIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OFTHE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY) WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIGSSOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA (TONIGHT) AND THE GREAT LAKES(SUN)...WITH ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION ANTICIPATED AS IT DIGSSOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC (SUN NIGHT) ANDCAROLINAS (MONDAY). THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONTHE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...THOUGH ADDITIONALSHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIESTODAY WILL EJECT ESE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH SUN NIGHT/MON...NEAR ORPERHAPS WITHIN THE NARROW SPATIO-TEMPORAL WINDOW IN WHICHINTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES MAY OCCUR. EVEN IF SOMEINTERACTION WERE TO OCCUR...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHERCONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN CENTRAL NC DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVENATURE OF THE PATTERN.THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVAMONDAY EVENING (00-06Z TUE)...POOR DIURNAL TIMINGAND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ATTENDANT STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTIONSHOULD PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRALNC.PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG DPVA IN THE EVENING...SCATTEREDCU MAY DEVELOP BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSERATES STEEPEN (VIA COLD ADVECTION) DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH LCL`S INTHE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER WETBULB PROFILES ATOR BELOW FREEZING...AN ISOLATED (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLURRY CANNOTBE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID40S...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT PLUMMETING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH ~10MB PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED BETWEEN 00-12Z TUE...NORTHERLY WINDSWILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPHOVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS TUEMORNING.TUE-FRI: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE/WED ASCOLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALWARMING TREND LATE WEEK. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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