Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 At what point do we start a thread for these storms? It's getting a little confusing with 2-3 different storms being talked about but it's probably too early for a dedicated thread. Might have a couple by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Para-EPS looks a little better than old EPS, tracks first though NC and would be big event for Philly to NE, then DT event tracks though gulf over PH the off OBX and actually brushes NE coast. It's colder too, per mean would be big for western NC. Pack - I thought the EPS and EPS Para were quite similar with both systems on Vista...maybe you are seeing some slight diffs in the details though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Might have a couple by next week.Can we start cold rain threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Pack - I thought the EPS and EPS Para were quite similar with both systems on Vista...maybe your are seeing some slight diffs in the details though I am nitpicking them :-). But they are close but para is slightly colder for NC at 228-240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just throw some white-out on the poor GFS Op and Allan's West Based NAO image looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 At what point do we start a thread for these storms? It's getting a little confusing with 2-3 different storms being talked about but it's probably too early for a dedicated thread. The only time a run is to be taken as "more reliable" is when new data is ingested from NOAA flights or extra weather balloon data, am I correct? Otherwise 18z is no different than a 00z or 12z as far as accuracy goes. Correct. No difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 At what point do we start a thread for these storms? It's getting a little confusing with 2-3 different storms being talked about but it's probably too early for a dedicated thread. The only time a run is to be taken as "more reliable" is when new data is ingested from NOAA flights or extra weather balloon data, am I correct? Otherwise 18z is no different than a 00z or 12z as far as accuracy goes. I think when it's within 5 days is standard, but depends if your in the "in" crowd , you could maybe get away with 7 days out, but it'll just get locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think when it's within 5 days is standard, but depends if your in the "in" crowd , you could maybe get away with 7 days out, but it'll just get locked. best to let Jburns or Lookout decide/say to make a thread from past experience. Sometiimes too many threads cause confusion and chaos and everything just turns into a jumbled mess. I thought last year there was a thread for multiple threats vs one for each outside 3 days, but I could be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I do like the idea of a double (or more) threat...first one more than likely sets the table for MANY of us. 1st one might be a high elevation, some TN and WNC and VA, WVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think when it's within 5 days is standard, but depends if your in the "in" crowd , you could maybe get away with 7 days out, but it'll just get locked. Yeah I wasn't planning to start one just wondering at what point it may be needed with so many potential systems. It's getting a little confusing for me to figure out which storm is being talked about now, hopefully early next week the mods will start one to clear things up a little. I think that NAO graph shows how unreliable the GFS is at extended ranges, just doesn't look right but the rest of the models show a nice, stable -NAO which is good. It's been awhile since we've seen one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah I wasn't planning to start one just wondering at what point it may be needed with so many potential systems. It's getting a little confusing for me to figure out which storm is being talked about now, hopefully early next week the mods will start one to clear things up a little. I think that NAO graph shows how unreliable the GFS is at extended ranges, just doesn't look right but the rest of the models show a nice, stable -NAO which is good. It's been awhile since we've seen one of those. I think we had a couple of threats last year before Fab Feb hit . One I can remember was showing a bomb off CHS on Euro, about 5 or 6 days out, there were some crazy runs, like 12-18" for Columbia crazy, a thread was started and storm went poof, like the next day! It's definately tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just throw some white-out on the poor GFS Op and Allan's West Based NAO image looks good If you were to smooth out the volatility of the GFS, it would look more like the others, but still not as negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Can already tell GFS is way different this run by the 8th looking at 500h. You don't have that big low cutting up the Mississippi River this run by that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Can already tell GFS is way different this run by the 8th looking at 500h.Good or bad, for snow and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 What an absolutely gorgeous track on the JAN 8-9 storm...it's a shame we have to waste that. Oh well. Gotta risk it to get the biscuit, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Feels good to have so much activity so soon after the warm December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The trough look wayyy better this run by the 10th. It's negative-tilted entering Eastern USA, too. I think this one might be a big one, although we're entering 200+ hours territory by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS puts a big ULL rolling through the OV past 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Basically instead of wrapping up the first system into a big storm, it waited and did that with the second one hitting the east coast Jan 10-11. This is the Cosgrove scenario - there's no cold air on the east coast for the storm, but cold is filtering in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS puts a big ULL rolling through the OV past 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This one's not gonna do it. "NEXT!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS looks a lot like the Euro just before 240...not as extreme with the PV but it's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Cuts up through the OV. 5H similar to 12z, but not quite there. Nevermind, was going off my memory. Did a side by side comparison and you can see how the shortwave trough digs a lot more and takes a bit longer to close off on the 12z run than it does on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Basically instead of wrapping up the first system into a big storm, it waited and did that with the second one hitting the east coast Jan 10-11. This is the Cosgrove scenario - there's no cold air on the east coast for the storm, but cold is filtering in behind it.That's what happens when there's low pressure where a high needs to be. The most likely solution at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS says its going to get a bit nippy after the inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The trough look wayyy better this run by the 10th. It's negative-tilted entering Eastern USA, too. I think this one might be a big one, although we're entering 200+ hours territory by now. Would be too warm for most since it cuts. Not putting much weight into the GFS this far out though, last run it had a weak low over WV now it has a 995mb low cutting through western TN and 12z run earlier today had a low in the GOM. We've gone from a GOM storm to a strong cutter in just 2 runs lol. Just goes to show what someone mentioned a few pages back, griteater maybe, about how the GFS struggles in El Niño winters due to how it handles southern stream waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The big takeway from today's runs is that the PV appears to be dropping and bringing in big time cold across the SE. When that happens something good is usually in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 So now instead of the two 1/8-9 storms setting the table for the 1/11 storm...we push everything back and the two 1/11 storms set the table for...nada. Cold air. Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 lol GFS basically has a hurricane in NE Canada...this run will look fun past hour 252...GooFuS at it's best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 We are on the wrong side of that bowling ball! The models just can't pick up on the drastic changes that are happening! I'm gonna stay up for the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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