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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Para-EPS looks a little better than old EPS, tracks first though NC and would be big event for Philly to NE, then DT event tracks though gulf over PH the off OBX and actually brushes NE coast. It's colder too, per mean would be big for western NC.

Pack - I thought the EPS and EPS Para were quite similar with both systems on Vista...maybe you are seeing some slight diffs in the details though

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At what point do we start a thread for these storms? It's getting a little confusing with 2-3 different storms being talked about but it's probably too early for a dedicated thread.

The only time a run is to be taken as "more reliable" is when new data is ingested from NOAA flights or extra weather balloon data, am I correct? Otherwise 18z is no different than a 00z or 12z as far as accuracy goes.

Correct. No difference.
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At what point do we start a thread for these storms? It's getting a little confusing with 2-3 different storms being talked about but it's probably too early for a dedicated thread.

The only time a run is to be taken as "more reliable" is when new data is ingested from NOAA flights or extra weather balloon data, am I correct? Otherwise 18z is no different than a 00z or 12z as far as accuracy goes.

I think when it's within 5 days is standard, but depends if your in the "in" crowd , you could maybe get away with 7 days out, but it'll just get locked.
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I think when it's within 5 days is standard, but depends if your in the "in" crowd , you could maybe get away with 7 days out, but it'll just get locked.

 

best to let Jburns or Lookout decide/say to make a thread from past experience.  Sometiimes too many threads cause confusion and chaos and everything just turns into a jumbled mess.  I thought last year there was a thread for multiple threats vs one for each outside 3 days, but I could be mistaken.

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I think when it's within 5 days is standard, but depends if your in the "in" crowd , you could maybe get away with 7 days out, but it'll just get locked.

Yeah I wasn't planning to start one just wondering at what point it may be needed with so many potential systems. It's getting a little confusing for me to figure out which storm is being talked about now, hopefully early next week the mods will start one to clear things up a little.

I think that NAO graph shows how unreliable the GFS is at extended ranges, just doesn't look right but the rest of the models show a nice, stable -NAO which is good. It's been awhile since we've seen one of those.

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Yeah I wasn't planning to start one just wondering at what point it may be needed with so many potential systems. It's getting a little confusing for me to figure out which storm is being talked about now, hopefully early next week the mods will start one to clear things up a little.

I think that NAO graph shows how unreliable the GFS is at extended ranges, just doesn't look right but the rest of the models show a nice, stable -NAO which is good. It's been awhile since we've seen one of those.

I think we had a couple of threats last year before Fab Feb hit . One I can remember was showing a bomb off CHS on Euro, about 5 or 6 days out, there were some crazy runs, like 12-18" for Columbia crazy, a thread was started and storm went poof, like the next day! It's definately tricky
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Cuts up through the OV. 5H similar to 12z, but not quite there.  Nevermind, was going off my memory. Did a side by side comparison and you can see how the shortwave trough digs a lot more and takes a bit longer to close off on the 12z run than it does on the 0z run.

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Basically instead of wrapping up the first system into a big storm, it waited and did that with the second one hitting the east coast Jan 10-11. This is the Cosgrove scenario - there's no cold air on the east coast for the storm, but cold is filtering in behind it.

That's what happens when there's low pressure where a high needs to be. The most likely solution at this juncture.
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The trough look wayyy better this run by the 10th. It's negative-tilted entering Eastern USA, too. I think this one might be a big one, although we're entering 200+ hours territory by now.

Would be too warm for most since it cuts. Not putting much weight into the GFS this far out though, last run it had a weak low over WV now it has a 995mb low cutting through western TN and 12z run earlier today had a low in the GOM. We've gone from a GOM storm to a strong cutter in just 2 runs lol. Just goes to show what someone mentioned a few pages back, griteater maybe, about how the GFS struggles in El Niño winters due to how it handles southern stream waves.

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