mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I like what the 18z GFS is cooking, it blows up the day 7 event, cuts it up midwest, and sets up a stronger 50/50 for DT event. It does dampen DT event energy out though since it's so strong but it's an option.Great! The cutter solution is right! Then we will wait on that storm to form a semi block, that will always work out! It's always the next one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 ***ALEET ALEET*** WE HAVE SNOW SHOWN IN NC/VA INSIDE OF 240............verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Great! The cutter solution is right! Then we will wait on that storm to form a semi block, that will always work out! It's always the next one! LOL...well if the EPS is right and we have PNA ridge, -AO, active STJ then we just need to get in the way of some moisture. Even we can't screw that up...or can we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Great! The cutter solution is right! Then we will wait on that storm to form a semi block, that will always work out! It's always the next one!FWIW historically we've had many of our winter storms follow Apps runner type systems after the cold air filters in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 FWIW historically we've had many of our winter storms follow Apps runner type systems after the cold air filters in I was just thinking the DT event should track SE of the day 7-8 event. Doesn't mean it won't track right over us but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think a lot of that warmth at the surface has to do with the low in the Great Lakes. If that continues to weaken on model runs then we should see a good change in surface temps. If it stays there or gets stronger it would be warm enough to give cold rain for many.two camps, one is a miller a the other is a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KLIMWX Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The fly in that ointment is the fact that there is a lot of warm water off the coast. While that would help a storm intensify it also would throw quite a bit of warmth ashore with the moisture forcing the changeover line further west than is normal. I agree.. normal "temps" are normally around 42`~ 45 or so this time of year. As of right now, Ocean temps are roughly 66 on the beach.. They are STILL landing King Mackerel just 5 miles off the beach. Mahi Mahi just 10~15 miles off the beach.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 two camps, one is a miller a the other is a cutter.Right but there is also a Great Lakes low present which is no doubt influencing the temps warmer ahead of it to an extent. The 12z Euro showed that also with a Great Lakes low and a southern low. This 216 hour map is almost identical to the 12z Euro with the primary low down south (either southern track or it could cut) with evidence for a Great Lakes low. We need to see more ridging up over this region and no low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Not an overwhelming signal on the 18z GEFS for the DT system but it's there and suppressed Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Larry Cosgrove just posted on FB his thoughts about the two snow threats. Here is it in a nutshell below: My concern here is that while storm #1 (January 10-14) gives only minor amounts of ice and snow to the Interstate 95 corridor, #2 (January 17-21; see it southwest of the Aleutian Islands) may take a path from S TX to FL and then toward Nova Scotia. So while the first disturbance brings the snow line into Appalachia and the Mid-South, the second impulse has a chance to deliver wintry weather into the Interstate 20 cities (DFW to ATL) as well as highly populated areas closer to the Atlantic shoreline. I think that this 500MB longwave pattern will stay with us through February and the first 2/3 of March (along the lines of the CanSIPS model output). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Larry Cosgrove just posted on FB his thoughts about the two snow threats. Here is it in a nutshell below: Interesting...not a lot of talk about the day 8 event, that probably just a big an impact on the DT event. Should be interesting next few days as all this shakes out and day 8 event solidifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like we just have to wait 10 days for things to really get going, and then after that we could see multiple threats all winter. Remember how much rain we have had since fall, and how it has stuck around for two or three days when it comes. Nothing is showing that is going to stop. Now all we need is the cold air, and that looks like it is coming, too. I think we are going to have a lot of fun starting in 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like we just have to wait 10 days for things to really get going, and then after that we could see multiple threats all winter. Remember how much rain we have had since fall, and how it has stuck around for two or three days when it comes. Nothing is showing that is going to stop. Now all we need is the cold air, and that looks like it is coming, too. I think we are going to have a lot of fun starting in 10 daysIsn't it interesting how winter seems to always be 10 days away?Anyway, the maps sure do look attractive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Isn't it interesting how winter seems to always be 10 days away? Anyway, the maps sure do look attractive today. You been hangin out with pack? Atleast we get chilly for a few days this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Isn't it interesting how winter seems to always be 10 days away? Anyway, the maps sure do look attractive today. In fairness, it was 400 days away in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 We really need a HP to the north to keep this storm suppressed...I still favor an inland track over NC, which should allow the Apps/WV/NE type system (possibly getting DC involved if it tracks perfectly). I don't see the evidence in this being a snow system for the SE with Central NC included at this time, doesn't mean it can't trend that way of course...with today's runs and looking at the EPS mean and individual members, there's not a lot there supporting a southern storm. The 18z GFS is the first decent run I've seen even though the storm is suppressed, it has a nice enough parent high to support some fantasy CAD. We want a look like that as I doubt our first storm of the season will have a perfectly placed stout HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 You been hangin out with pack? Atleast we get chilly for a few days this week! Yeah, glad it will almost feel like winter for a while. In fact, it almost looked like a snow sky today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 You been hangin out with pack? Atleast we get chilly for a few days this week! LOL...I have posted all positive today. Been type casted now, going into full hype mode rest of winter. #JB-FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 In fairness, it was 400 days away in December Haha how true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 We really need a HP to the north to keep this storm suppressed...I still favor an inland track over NC, which should allow the Apps/WV/NE type system (possibly getting DC involved if it tracks perfectly). I don't see the evidence in this being a snow system for the SE with Central NC included at this time, doesn't mean it can't trend that way of course...with today's runs and looking at the EPS mean and individual members, there's not a lot there supporting a southern storm. The 18z GFS is the first decent run I've seen even though the storm is suppressed, it has a nice enough parent high to support some fantasy CAD. We want a look like that as I doubt our first storm of the season will have a perfectly placed stout HP. Jon, How much trust on an 18Z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Jon, How much trust on an 18Z run? Any OP run at this time shouldn't be trusted much, comparing ensembles and noting the differences from run to run is the way to go. I was just stating that we need a look (decent HP for CAD) if we want to cash in on this system. If you're asking specifically about 0z/12z vs 6z/18z and whether or not the latter isn't as trustworthy, it's more of a myth than truth. You should consider 18z being just as good as the 12z or 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Any OP run at this time shouldn't be trusted much, comparing ensembles and noting the differences from run to run is the way to go. I was just stating that we need a look (decent HP for CAD) if we want to cash in on this system. If you're asking specifically about 0z/12z vs 6z/18z and whether or not the latter isn't as trustworthy, it's more of a myth than truth. You should consider 18z being just as good as the 12z or 0z run. Gotcha and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well guys and ladies, I've been reading today and am happy with all the posts concerning the up coming weather. Thanks for all the insight and I'll continue to lurk and read in between getting the plows operational and ordering salt. Thanks for all the encouragement for January weather. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 LOL...I have posted all positive today. Been type casted now, going into full hype mode rest of winter. #JB-FTW My image of Mack and Pack here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quagmire Wx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 and you guys are still hugging the 18z GFS? dedicated Weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Interesting...not a lot of talk about the day 8 event, that probably just a big an impact on the DT event. Should be interesting next few days as all this shakes out and day 8 event solidifies. I favor a weaker initial system, then a more significant wave/system coming out of the southwest and hitting the east in Jan 10-11 timeframe...so, opposite of the 18z GFS...JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Larry Cosgrove just posted on FB his thoughts about the two snow threats. Here is it in a nutshell below: My concern here is that while storm #1 (January 10-14) gives only minor amounts of ice and snow to the Interstate 95 corridor, #2 (January 17-21; see it southwest of the Aleutian Islands) may take a path from S TX to FL and then toward Nova Scotia. So while the first disturbance brings the snow line into Appalachia and the Mid-South, the second impulse has a chance to deliver wintry weather into the Interstate 20 cities (DFW to ATL) as well as highly populated areas closer to the Atlantic shoreline. I think that this 500MB longwave pattern will stay with us through February and the first 2/3 of March (along the lines of the CanSIPS model output). Odd that Cosgrove is saying storm #1 (he says Jan 10-14) would miss I-95 (even New England), but I suppose he is seeing more of a big cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I favor a weaker initial system, then a more significant wave/system coming out of the southwest and hitting the east in Jan 10-11 timeframe...so, opposite of the 18z GFS...JMO Para-EPS looks a little better than old EPS, tracks first though NC and would be big event for Philly to NE, then DT event tracks though gulf over PH the off OBX and actually brushes NE coast. It's colder too, per mean would be big for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 At what point do we start a thread for these storms? It's getting a little confusing with 2-3 different storms being talked about but it's probably too early for a dedicated thread. The only time a run is to be taken as "more reliable" is when new data is ingested from NOAA flights or extra weather balloon data, am I correct? Otherwise 18z is no different than a 00z or 12z as far as accuracy goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 At what point do we start a thread for these storms? It's getting a little confusing with 2-3 different storms being talked about but it's probably too early for a dedicated thread. The only time a run is to be taken as "more reliable" is when new data is ingested from NOAA flights or extra weather balloon data, am I correct? Otherwise 18z is no different than a 00z or 12z as far as accuracy goes. I would wait until at least Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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