griteater Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm more interested what would happen after. EPS should be fun. Me too Burger. Key will be keeping the southern wave train going once colder air is theoretically in place, and the storm track has shifted south a bit...keeping the southern wave train going would be a tall, tall task in a nina....but that's where the nino comes in, especially a strong one. When you leaving the U.S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Me too Burger. Key will be keeping the southern wave train going once colder air is theoretically in place, and the storm track has shifted south a bit...keeping the southern wave train going would be a tall, tall task in a nina....but that's where the nino comes in, especially a strong one. When you leaving the U.S.? I thought the STJ was gonna rock through winter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I thought the STJ was gonna rock through winter Sent from my iPhone It should, but the waves still have to be there when the colder pattern is in place...no guarantees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Bob Chill in DC should like the Euro Ensemble for the Jan 10-11 storm. Looks very similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Bob Chill in DC should like the Euro Ensemble for the Jan 10-11 storm. Looks very similar to 00z. So again favors an inland track ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 So again favors an inland track ? Sent from my iPhone Mean track and temps looked very similar....long time ahead for adjustments obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 No shortage of cold on the Euro Ens in the extended. It's a touch colder than 00z after the Jan 10-11 storm. Cold vortex sets up just ESE of Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 So again favors an inland track ? Sent from my iPhone looks like it goes from new Orleans to Columbia to Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Bob Chill in DC should like the Euro Ensemble for the Jan 10-11 storm. Looks very similar to 00z. I wonder what the earliest modeled storm that actually came to be has been. 7 days out? 9 days out? We'd certainly like to lock up this solution but I feel like we are one run away from this slamming the SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 As expected the Euro ensembles are cold from hour 216 through the end of the run. If we do get snow it won't be going anywhere quickly that's for sure. Low track seems similar to the last run, not much change there. Right now I would say western NC and the mountains are favored but there is a long way to go on this and much that will change, it's nice to have a threat to finally track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Bob Chill in DC should like the Euro Ensemble for the Jan 10-11 storm. Looks very similar to 00z. MSLP looks great but ensemble members aren't as rosy as last night. The 3 day window around the event is about .5-6 precip but mean snowfall is less than 2" I'm pretty dumb for nitpicking like that though. It's a long ways out. You guys should like the d10 - 15 period and beyond regardless. THAT is some impressive cold and pretty good h5 pattern for a southern storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 As expected the Euro ensembles are cold from hour 216 through the end of the run. If we do get snow it won't be going anywhere quickly that's for sure. Low track seems similar to the last run, not much change there. Right now I would say western NC and the mountains are favored but there is a long way to go on this and much that will change, it's nice to have a threat to finally track. I would add a good portion of tenn as well with that track Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 looks like it goes from new Orleans to Columbia to Hatteras. Me likes this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I would add a good portion of tenn as well with that track Sent from my iPhone Possibly, some members indicate a second low in the Great Lakes forming and warming up areas west of the apps enough for a cold rain. In that scenario the CAD areas of NC might see some snow and ice (if CAD sets up) while TN sees a cold rain. If that second Great Lakes low doesn't form then they would see a nice snow as well. If we can keep this a pure Miller A then many would be happy on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I wonder what the earliest modeled storm that actually came to be has been. 7 days out? 9 days out? We'd certainly like to lock up this solution but I feel like we are one run away from this slamming the SNE.I think the Christmas snow of 2010, had like a 7-8 day lead time, lost it about 2-3 days out but brought it back! There was a pretty long lead on the Jan '10 or '11 storm ( the one that started on sun night and Monday ) gave alot of the region 4-12 inches and was a cold storm!Then 1993 superstorm had a 7+ day lead, and never looked back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think the Christmas snow of 2010, had like a 7-8 day lead time, lost it about 2-3 days out but brought it back! There was a pretty long lead on the Jan '10 or '11 storm ( the one that started on sun night and Monday ) gave alot of the region 4-12 inches and was a cold storm! Then 1993 superstorm had a 7+ day lead, and never looked back! And that was 93!! It must have been a model "Wild West" back then I bet. But the pattern is the pattern. Despite that word teleconnections that people seem to overuse or misuse when they are I the right place the story just writes itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 In the FWIW department... @RyanMaue 21m21 minutes ago Hearing whispers about a Polar Vortex coming next weekend to Lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 And this... NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 3m3 minutes ago Dec '15 was warm, but Jan '16 is likely to be cool: NWS's CFS model indicates below normal temps most of Jan for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 MSLP looks great but ensemble members aren't as rosy as last night. The 3 day window around the event is about .5-6 precip but mean snowfall is less than 2" I'm pretty dumb for nitpicking like that though. It's a long ways out. You guys should like the d10 - 15 period and beyond regardless. THAT is some impressive cold and pretty good h5 pattern for a southern storm. I thought there was subtle improvements, the PNA ridge got stronger and heights over HB extended further east. But even with all that, we still probably need everything to shift south. It would be a shame to miss this, there isn't going to be a potential big dog every other week this winter in the east. Edit: I also see lots of members hitting you guys good, this is really a great setup for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This is the ensemble mean 2m temps when the SLP right off the NC coast...cold collapses after low passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Fwiw the Canadian ensembles are similar to the Euro ensembles with the cold and trough placement. They also track the low of the January 10-11 storm along the Gulf Coast, similar to yesterday's runs. The cold looks sustained through the end of the run on both the Euro and Canadian ensembles. Through January 17th the temps are still well BN across most of the nation except out west on the Euro due to a PNA ridge building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I thought there was subtle improvements, the PNA ridge got stronger and heights over HB extended further east. But even with all that, we still probably need everything to shift south. It would be a shame to miss this, there isn't going to be a potential big dog every other week this winter in the east. Edit: I also see lots of members hitting you guys good, this is really a great setup for you guys. With that strong low height anomaly around 50/50 and such an impressive cold push into the deep south, I would guess that the SE chances for winter precip are much above normal. Even simple overrunning would work and not some big organized low. I could even see a northern stream only event happen. It's going to be a long week...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This is the ensemble mean 2m temps when the SLP right off the NC coast...cold collapses after low passes by. I think a lot of that warmth at the surface has to do with the low in the Great Lakes. If that continues to weaken on model runs then we should see a good change in surface temps. If it stays there or gets stronger it would be warm enough to give cold rain for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This is the ensemble mean 2m temps when the SLP right off the NC coast...cold collapses after low passes by.Think the threat is after the end of this map, so this is just setting the table!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 One event that the DT storm looks similar too with strong PNA ridge that knives into HB was 1/2-3/02 event...the EPS is showing stronger heights a little further north than 02 though... This is a complete analog though, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Think the threat is after the end of this map, so this is just setting the table!? Yes, for what the EPS is showing in the extended if we don't get a few flakes that would be bad luck, IMO. Maybe not everyone but somewhere in NC/nw-SC/nw-GA should see something, I would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think a lot of that warmth at the surface has to do with the low in the Great Lakes. If that continues to weaken on model runs then we should see a good change in surface temps. If it stays there or gets stronger it would be warm enough to give cold rain for many. I think 2m's on EPS are biased warm but probably some amped up members skewing things too. CMC-ens biased cold, so a blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I like what the 18z GFS is cooking, it blows up the day 7 event, cuts it up midwest, and sets up a stronger 50/50 for DT event. It does dampen DT event energy out though since it's so strong but it's an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Bastardi: 2 Major Snow Storms On the Way 1st one is January 10-12 Next is around the 20th further south See this afternoon's Atmospheric Advenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Bastardi: 2 Major Snow Storms On the Way 1st one is January 10-12 Next is around the 20th further south See this afternoon's Atmospheric Advenger And VERY COLD!!! If we can get the snow it may hang around for a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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