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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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lol gotta love the 12z in fantasy land. Descent CAD setup and then it spins a big ULL that hammers NC with snow. .0000001% chance of that happening. 

CAD setup at 240hrs from absolutely nothing on the 06z...classic GFS OP 240hrs+

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We have essentially 10 days of runs  left, I'm not sure how important the 12z runs are today...they will likely not show much different than the 00z. We just need to wait until the models still have it in under 5 days. The HP does need to trend a lot better than currently being modeled for anyone in the SE to have a chance. I like the inland track at this time (through Central NC), of course that can change as we move forward but nothing really indicates, to me, a low strength Miller A staying suppressed off our coast (more likely an inland to coastal bomb for the NE as the hp moves in overtop). Like you said we could get stronger highs to our north, we NEED that in order to cash in here and it's non-existent at this point.

This is why I think the 12z runs are important, mainly the Euro ensembles. If we are going to see more of a Miller A track then we want models to start picking up on a stronger HP and blocking to the north. Since we are 216-240 hours out we have time, however I've noticed once inside 144-180 hours models begin locking down on a solution so we need things to start showing up soon if we are going to get a more suppressed track. There is so much energy flying around everywhere, short waves and low pressure systems, that the evolution and strength of them will impact future storms also. There will be 2-3 storms to track in the 10-15th range it looks like and with a good pattern setting up we should score on one of them, hey all 3 would be great but that's not realistic.

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CAD setup at 240hrs from absolutely nothing on the 06z...classic GFS OP 240hrs+

Maybe GFS OP runs belong in the banter thread like someone suggested yesterday lol. Basically if you don't like what the GFS shows, wait for the next run and you'll get an entirely different solution :)

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This is why I think the 12z runs are important, mainly the Euro ensembles. If we are going to see more of a Miller A track then we want models to start picking up on a stronger HP and blocking to the north. Since we are 216-240 hours out we have time, however I've noticed once inside 144-180 hours models begin locking down on a solution so we need things to start showing up soon if we are going to get a more suppressed track. There is so much energy flying around everywhere, short waves and low pressure systems, that the evolution and strength of them will impact future storms also. There will be 2-3 storms to track in the 10-15th range it looks like and with a good pattern setting up we should score on one of them, hey all 3 would be great but that's not realistic.

I agree 100% with you, my point in saying the 12z won't say much is that it's hard to nail down a solution in this time frame so you'll likely see one thing and the next run will give you another (same thing goes for ensembles)...it's just too erratic to tell you much. If you start looking at specifics now it will be a long 10 days haha, but I understand the excitement! 12z is about as weenie as it gets for N VA, 25"+

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I agree 100% with you, my point in saying the 12z won't say much is that it's hard to nail down a solution in this time frame so you'll likely see one thing and the next run will give you another (same thing goes for ensembles)...it's just too erratic to tell you much. If you start looking at specifics now it will be a long 10 days haha, but I understand the excitement! 12z is about as weenie as it gets for N VA, 25"+

Haha next run it'll show a Midwest cutter the way the GFS is. Now when the Euro starts showing some snow and under 200 hours then maybe we can start getting excited, with many sleepless nights and PBP of the Euro taking our hopes and dreams away lol.

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The fly in that ointment is the fact that there is a lot of warm water off the coast.  While that would help a storm intensify it also would throw quite a bit of warmth ashore with the moisture forcing the changeover line further west than is normal.

That is a very good point! I think there will be a lot of messy storm...... #mixbag

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Cohen FTW...his latest model/forecast for J-M temps. We snow if true...

The numbers on his map don't look like they match up with the legend. The best I can tell on his map, the darkest area looks to be -1.0 C. But that particular color looks more associated with the -2.0 on the legend. I can run a level 2 diagnostic on my multiphasic spectral micrometer, but that will take a while. Can someone else validate for me?

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The numbers on his map don't look like they match up with the legend. The best I can tell on his map, the darkest area looks to be -1.0 C. But that particular color looks more associated with the -2.0 on the legend. I can run a level 2 diagnostic on my multiphasic spectral micrometer, but that will take a while. Can someone else validate for me?

 

Looks like it matches to me. Each shade is in increments of 0.2, so yes, when you count the layers/shades, the darkest area is "only" -1.0C You are correct, CR.

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