NWNC2015 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 0z GFS was beautiful tonight. Lots of cold trying to come in with an active southern stream with at least two major systems to watch. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Really have to be happy with 00z GFS look. Tons of potential storms. Some 4-5 low pressures to track in 10 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Euro setting up nicely at hour 240... This storm is going to be fun to track with all the blocking overtop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 About 10-12 Euro ensemble members have a light dusting to a few inches of snow falling Tuesday-Wednesday next week with the strong shortwave. Something to keep an eye on as it wouldn't take much for it to drop a quick inch or two of snow, and with cold 850 temps -10 to -12 ratios would be high. Would be nice to get a powdery inch or two, at least something to keep an eye out for. At 200-300 hours Euro ensembles setup nicely for a big storm through the Deep South. Oh and both maps below are well within the 300 hour mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 GEFS and Canadian ensembles track our storm as a classic Miller A. Euro ensembles are close but take it through central Alabama which would probably be too far north for many on here. Being 10 days out though I expect to see volatility and adjustments as the models figure it out. One thing is for sure, we will have a MASSIVE PNA ridge and tons of energy riding around it during the 10-15th, so we should get something wintry. It about as favorable of a pattern as we can get. Models will be more volatile than usual on track and intensity especially due to the energy flying around everywhere and complex interactions. The trends are still good and encouraging, Happy New Year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 GEFS and Canadian ensembles track our storm as a classic Miller A. Euro ensembles are close but take it through central Alabama which would probably be too far north for many on here. Being 10 days out though I expect to see volatility and adjustments as the models figure it out. One thing is for sure, we will have a MASSIVE PNA ridge and tons of energy riding around it during the 10-15th, so we should get something wintry. It about as favorable of a pattern as we can get. Models will be more volatile than usual on track and intensity especially due to the energy flying around everywhere and complex interactions. The trends are still good and encouraging, Happy New Year everyone! I noticed that but looks good for those of us in other areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Just curious as to why people are excited about the 10th-14th time period. Unless I am missing something it looks like a cutter to me. I am excited about future prospects as we go forward in the winter though,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Just curious as to why people are excited about the 10th-14th time period. Unless I am missing something it looks like a cutter to me. I am excited about future prospects as we go forward in the winter though,. The 6z gfs operational does have a cutter. However, the gfs ensembles do not and I don't believe that the Euro or its ensembles do either. The reason the GFS operational does not match is that it's the only model to have a positive NAO for that time frame. The other models have it negative which would indicate more blocking and it would force the storm further south. It bears watching at this point. If you have an American Weather Model Subscription, you can clearly see that the GFS operational is a clear outlier when it comes to the west based NAO for that time period: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=ecmwfens&run_time=00z¶m=allwestnao&map=US&run_hour=306 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm not sold on Tuesday-Wednesday. Temps don't look cold enough and lack of moisture from what I see. RAH isn't sold on it either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Indices basically look about the same from yesterday: PNA - Averages a little more positive - Better NAO - Averages more neutral than yesterday (which was more negative) - Worse AO - Continues to tank negative - Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Anybody see the EURO Parallel runs through early Feb? Posted on WeatherBell Premium and they look really nice for everyone South of Philly, ie cold and stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 EPS SLP members/spread with mean snowfall. Spread is from a apps runner to wide right and in between.... still some members in the gulf too. This is the most aggressive mean output for snow for central NC, but as you can see the mean is very high central w-va which would be the inland runners I presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Anybody see the EURO Parallel runs through early Feb? Posted on WeatherBell Premium and they look really nice for everyone South of Philly, ie cold and stormy Yep, Just looked at them! #yummy If it's right? # a lot of long nights of tracking ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Anybody see the EURO Parallel runs through early Feb? Posted on WeatherBell Premium and they look really nice for everyone South of Philly, ie cold and stormy They look great and show a nice relax and then a reload. In fact the parallel doesn't have the SE AN in any 7 day chunk, it has us neutral for 10 days or so but then brings cold back once into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm not sold on Tuesday-Wednesday. Temps don't look cold enough and lack of moisture from what I see. RAH isn't sold on it either... Yea same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The deferences between the 06z GFS op and the 06z GEFS are laughable OP GEFS The OP seems lost with its erratic runs Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Impressive warmth and located in a great spot. 1.2 is falling steadily now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think as others have stated that the NAO is going to be crucial to get a winter storm in the SE during the next two weeks. Pack's mean snowfall / low placement maps above would favor the southern solutions with a negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think as others have stated that the NAO is going to be crucial to get a winter storm in the SE during the next two weeks. Pack's mean snowfall / low placement maps above would favor the southern solutions with a negative NAO.Yep, the ridging up into NW Canada was trying to nose into HB day 10 a little stronger this run, if we had a true -NAO this would be really interesting. Need a true banana high, getting there, maybe...possibly. A apps runner Miller b reformer is making sense at this point, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yep, the ridging up into NW Canada was trying to nose into HB day 10 a little stronger this run, if we had a true -NAO this would be really interesting. Need a true banana high, getting there, maybe...possibly. A apps runner Miller b reformer is making sense at this point, but we will see. A Miller B could work as well, but we would need a strong high and a good cold air feed (..keep the low below our latitude before transfer). Not sure if we would have that configuration. Miller A off the coast may be our only chance (at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 SNL had not yet aired (1975 debut), but I do remember distinctly watching 'You're a Good man Charlie Brown' on Friday evening as the snow was coming down. Not a cartoon but a stage play show on TV. Kept going to the back door and switching on the porch light to see copious amounts of flakes growing heavier and heavier. I was hooked. Gosh, I must have the shows mixed up or the snowstorms mixed up.... Now you have me thinking what WAS I watching at 11:30pm Saturday February 10 1973? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 A Miller B could work as well, but we would need a strong high and a good cold air feed (..keep the low below our latitude before transfer). Not sure if we would have that configuration. Miller A off the coast may be our only chance (at this point). The day 10 eps runs looks pretty good, just shift the big ridge south a little and don't weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It's possible this system in the 10-15th timeframe could cut, however I don't see that happening. Models and ensembles should trend a little stronger with the blocking to the north as we approach thus resulting in a further south track, hopefully a true Miller A track. I wouldn't even look at the OP GFS outside 120 hours, it's too erratic and unstable. Stick with Euro and Euro ensembles and Canadian ensembles at this time. The 12z runs today will be important imo. The Euro ensembles seem to favor a central Alabama track with either a cutter through central/western NC or some sticking with a true Miller A track. I expect the southern solutions to verify, blocking up north will be stronger than anticipated at the extended ranges imo. Even a cutter through central NC would be good for our friends in TN and the NC mountains/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 A Miller B could work as well, but we would need a strong high and a good cold air feed (..keep the low below our latitude before transfer). Not sure if we would have that configuration. Miller A off the coast may be our only chance (at this point). The fly in that ointment is the fact that there is a lot of warm water off the coast. While that would help a storm intensify it also would throw quite a bit of warmth ashore with the moisture forcing the changeover line further west than is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The fly in that ointment is the fact that there is a lot of warm water off the coast. While that would help a storm intensify it also would throw quite a bit of warmth ashore with the moisture forcing the changeover line further west than is normal. A weak Miller A would be preferred, I agree a strong one would likely force warm air inland possibly to central NC as the changeover region. There is still quite a spread on track and being 200+ hours out we have some time to see it trend in our favor. The euro ensembles are split 50/50 on track while the Canadian ensembles favor a weak Miller A track. I'm not going to even mention the GEFS since it has been consistently playing catch up with the Euro and even Canadian ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z GFS storm around the 11th with no cold around Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It's possible this system in the 10-15th timeframe could cut, however I don't see that happening. Models and ensembles should trend a little stronger with the blocking to the north as we approach thus resulting in a further south track, hopefully a true Miller A track. I wouldn't even look at the OP GFS outside 120 hours, it's too erratic and unstable. Stick with Euro and Euro ensembles and Canadian ensembles at this time. The 12z runs today will be important imo. The Euro ensembles seem to favor a central Alabama track with either a cutter through central/western NC or some sticking with a true Miller A track. I expect the southern solutions to verify, blocking up north will be stronger than anticipated at the extended ranges imo. Even a cutter through central NC would be good for our friends in TN and the NC mountains/foothills. I like what the GFS is doing though day 8+, it kind of messes things up with energy diving over the pac ridge and dampening the PNA and shutting off cold air but the blocking over Greenland/HB looks great. This was close to being something big... Split flow, strong STJ, I would imagine this isn't going to be easy for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It's possible this system in the 10-15th timeframe could cut, however I don't see that happening. Models and ensembles should trend a little stronger with the blocking to the north as we approach thus resulting in a further south track, hopefully a true Miller A track. I wouldn't even look at the OP GFS outside 120 hours, it's too erratic and unstable. Stick with Euro and Euro ensembles and Canadian ensembles at this time. The 12z runs today will be important imo. The Euro ensembles seem to favor a central Alabama track with either a cutter through central/western NC or some sticking with a true Miller A track. I expect the southern solutions to verify, blocking up north will be stronger than anticipated at the extended ranges imo. Even a cutter through central NC would be good for our friends in TN and the NC mountains/foothills. We have essentially 10 days of runs left, I'm not sure how important the 12z runs are today...they will likely not show much different than the 00z. We just need to wait until the models still have it in under 5 days. The HP does need to trend a lot better than currently being modeled for anyone in the SE to have a chance. I like the inland track at this time (through Central NC), of course that can change as we move forward but nothing really indicates, to me, a low strength Miller A staying suppressed off our coast (more likely an inland to coastal bomb for the NE as the hp moves in overtop). Like you said we could get stronger highs to our north, we NEED that in order to cash in here and it's non-existent at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Problem is the GFS backed the first system cutting dragging on the cold for the second Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z GFS storm around the 11th with no cold around Sent from my iPhone It actually has a descent CAD setup at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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