Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Winter weather outside of the mountains seems to always strike near the end of a cold pattern and right before the switch to warm/seasonal. Minus some of the golden years. I just can't see any lock to the cold air this winter with such an active southern stream, I think it's going to come in brief narrow windows. That's probably the way it will turn out. There have been rare periods, like Burger mentioned, where we have had a real winter pattern locked in. How nice would it be to see something like that now that we have a weather community to follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This is the first weeklies run of the season that shows cold in the east...Not one run previous run ever had 2m temps BN for any day. Mack - do I get credit for a positive post? I have had like 10 posts today, 8 positive and 2 negative, I am keeping score. Nice post! Baby steps , just like our pattern change! Much more positive posts today! Good work! It's back to work Monday, hope to have something to track by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 That's probably the way it will turn out. There have been rare periods, like Burger mentioned, where we have had a real winter pattern locked in. How nice would it be to see something like that now that we have a weather community to follow it. Mod+ blocky nino's are like gold for us, but right now it's a pile of cow dung. I am expecting more than 1 week of a good pattern, I will settle for two. Most crappy nina's we get 2 week of a good pattern spread out over the winter, so worst case we should get that, so we got that going for us. But to appease Mack I have to post the Feb cansips temp/precip, after all it's Jan forecast is going to verify ....#FabFeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 That's probably the way it will turn out. There have been rare periods, like Burger mentioned, where we have had a real winter pattern locked in. How nice would it be to see something like that now that we have a weather community to follow it. 1 winter storm in January, 1 in February, and 2 in March would be a great winter with no real winter pattern locked in whatsoever. It can be done, and that is more of a norm compared to a "lock" like in '09/10. That's why I'm not too worried about the LR looking like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 FWIW: JB said this morning he thinks we will have a 30-45 days maybe 75 days run on winter in the SE. when it starts in January he has said he thinks Feb would be the best month of the winter, but it could get started earlier than he first thought? And good chance it runs into March this year as well............. But he may change a little if the weeklies look that bad tonight! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Mod+ blocky nino's are like gold for us, but right now it's a pile of cow dung. I am expecting more than 1 week of a good pattern, I will settle for two. Most crappy nina's we get 2 week of a good pattern spread out over the winter, so worst case we should get that, so we got that going for us. But to appease Mack I have to post the Feb cansips temp/precip, after all it's Jan forecast is going to verify ....#FabFeb If Winter turns out like that, we will all be happy and remember this is one of the best in a long, long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 1 winter storm in January, 1 in February, and 2 in March would be a great winter with no real winter pattern locked in whatsoever. It can be done, and that is more of a norm compared to a "lock" like in '09/10. That's why I'm not too worried about the LR looking like crap. I like snow at any time, but March is a bit sketchy, as it favors the NW areas and doesn't stick around long. I'd rather get the lion's share of wintry weather in late Dec through early Feb, as if I have any control over such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This type of scenario could happen in the upcoming pattern change I remember that one as a young child Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This type of scenario could happen in the upcoming pattern change I remember that one as a young child 73' epic storm has been on my card since September. Something just screams big snow in areas of the coast. 73 was also a strong nino year if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm happy with how the middle of Jan looks now. Worry about the end of Jan and the rest of winter later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 No, no I do not...haha. It's truncated but not in the sense of last GFS OP. From what I can find: Old GFS: 0-240hr 27km, 240hr+ 84km New GFS: 0-240hr 13km, 240hr+ 35km So 240+ is actually pretty close to the old resolution of 0-240hrs but not quite. Yeah, plus back in the day it used to truncate at hr 192, as well (guess that's been a few years ago now). Anyways, see you guys on the other side. Time for New Year's festivities, then I'm off to Phoenix tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This type of scenario could happen in the upcoming pattern change I remember that one as a young child Yep we didn't get one single flake out of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This type of scenario could happen in the upcoming pattern change I remember that one as a young child Lived the SE part of the state at the time. Was about 10yrs old when it hit. Started snowing around 7pm on a Friday night and poured it on for 24hrs straight. One heck of a memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Lived the SE part of the state at the time. Was about 10yrs old when it hit. Started snowing around 7pm on a Friday night and poured it on for 24hrs straight. One heck of a memory. Absolutely.... Remember stray flakes showing up during the day at school that Friday and the snow started in earnest after sunset. 24 hours later Saturday night it was still coming down. I remember taking a break from watching Saturday Night Live late Saturday evening and there were some of the the largest wind blown flakes I have ever witnessed with 3 to 4 foot drifts. It was a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 If something hits the gulf then the Atlantic it's going to explode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 FWIW: JB said this morning he thinks we will have a 30-45 days maybe 75 days run on winter in the SE. when it starts in January he has said he thinks Feb would be the best month of the winter, but it could get started earlier than he first thought? And good chance it runs into March this year as well............. But he may change a little if the weeklies look that bad tonight! lolI'm not a meterologist i just enjoy cold and snow .From what i've read and heard on Weatherbell free site and Joe Bastardi twitter we should be startibg winter hear in SE soon.That being said I was wondering what does JB mean change a little if the weeklies look that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm not a meterologist i just enjoy cold and snow .From what i've read and heard on Weatherbell free site and Joe Bastardi twitter we should be startibg winter hear in SE soon. That being said I was wondering what does JB mean change a little if the weeklies look that bad. No JB didn't say that, I did, in a joking manner...... He hasn't changed at all his thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 From JB tonight: Feb and March look cold on the Canadian also.... He says the Euro is frigid with a relax at the end of Jan which he expects and then we reload for a Fab Feb! lol... and Canadian agrees and Feb looks Cold and March also. Temps for Fab Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 From looking at the ensembles I'm encouraged by what I see. The GEFS is continuing to trend closer to the Euro ensembles, the January 10th pattern locking in for the SE looks on track and potential for a SE snow/ice storm in the January 10-15 is high, imo. I've thought for awhile that this could be our first snow and still think we have a good shot. Going through the individual Euro ensembles I counted 22 on the 00z run showing some type of accumulating snow in part of NC, today's run at 12z I counted 23 members so a slight improvement. Most of the ones which show snow are 4" events or light dustings. There were also 6-7 near misses just to our north in VA. What we want to watch now is how the ensembles trend as we get closer to this time period and how the ensembles trend. If we get more on board then you can begin to get excited once inside 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 For those curious the high res Euro (parallel) meteogram for Raleigh has significantly improved in recent days. I'll let the chart speak for itself but good agreement for something between January 10-15th with that big storm from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 There's something wrong with those temperature images on tropical tidbits for the Cansips. Don't know what it is, but it's common for the temp output on there to not match the 5h. Anyway, on StormVista, the Cansips has -1 to -3 for Jan and normal temps for Feb & Mar, which looks more realistic based on the 5h pattern. Of course, it could be completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 There's something wrong with those temperature images on tropical tidbits for the Cansips. Don't know what it is, but it's common for the temp output on there to not match the 5h. Anyway, on StormVista, the Cansips has -1 to -3 for Jan and normal temps for Feb & Mar, which looks more realistic based on the 5h pattern. Of course, it could be completely wrong. Yea on SV it looks very typical Ninoish for Feb/March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yea on SV it looks very typical Ninoish for Feb/MarchHow does precip look from BWI south on the SV maps if you don't mind me asking? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 There's something wrong with those temperature images on tropical tidbits for the Cansips. Don't know what it is, but it's common for the temp output on there to not match the 5h. Anyway, on StormVista, the Cansips has -1 to -3 for Jan and normal temps for Feb & Mar, which looks more realistic based on the 5h pattern. Of course, it could be completely wrong. Ian has asked SV about it last month and he got a response to the effect that TD wasn't calculating correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 How does precip look from BWI south on the SV maps if you don't mind me asking? Thanks They don't have precip. TD does for Feb and Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 They don't have precip. TD does for Feb and Mar.Yeah. I was just wondering if SV precip maps were diff or the same in trying to figure out which is right. I sorta remember this being discussed last month or the one before and I "thought" it was decided that Tropical Tidbits was right. But I could have dreamed it at my age. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Absolutely.... Remember stray flakes showing up during the day at school that Friday and the snow started in earnest after sunset. 24 hours later Saturday night it was still coming down. I remember taking a break from watching Saturday Night Live late Saturday evening and there were some of the the largest wind blown flakes I have ever witnessed with 3 to 4 foot drifts. It was a big one. SNL had not yet aired (1975 debut), but I do remember distinctly watching 'You're a Good man Charlie Brown' on Friday evening as the snow was coming down. Not a cartoon but a stage play show on TV. Kept going to the back door and switching on the porch light to see copious amounts of flakes growing heavier and heavier. I was hooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 00z gfs hr 300..... compared to 18z.... night and day Starts at hour 174 00z gfs quicker and further south with low pressure 00z gfs never looks back at 204 00z gfs has a low transition off hatteras 18z not even close to that...and that's the major change the low goes ots and allows cold air to pull south its a lot colder by 300 its a lot colder than previous run 18 gfs western Nebraska is sitting at 14 degrees....on the 00z its at -29 degrees similar change for NC as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Looks like 00z GFS is pretty close to the Euro for the storm around 1/11. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Happy New Year 2016 Now i'm ready for cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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