Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Week 2, did you mean -AO, +PNA? No, no I do not...haha. I asked this in the banter thread the other day, but nobody answered. I thought that there was no longer a truncation on the GFS after an upgrade last winter and all of the data and graphics are full resolution through the end of the run. Am I remembering that wrong? I think you're correct.....it's still full resolution but it's obvious it loses something after 240. It's truncated but not in the sense of last GFS OP. From what I can find: Old GFS: 0-240hr 27km, 240hr+ 84km New GFS: 0-240hr 13km, 240hr+ 35km So 240+ is actually pretty close to the old resolution of 0-240hrs but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 No. Weeklies have a ok pattern Dec 12-20 then back to Dec pattern from Dec 20th on -PNA.Probably breaking down the pattern too quickly! And it's the weeklies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Probably breaking down the pattern too quickly! And it's the weeklies! So we buy EPS days 12-15 but not days 19+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Is it too much to ask to get into a sustained winter pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 So we buy EPS days 12-15 but not days 19+?Like cousin Eddie would say, Bingo! ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Our 11th-13th period looks the same on the weeklies Images form wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Lol don't like what you see o the weeklies? Wait till Monday and see what they spit out . It was what just this past Monday that they looked good lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 So we buy EPS days 12-15 but not days 19+? The euro weeklies as a whole are pretty bad, the EPS tends to verify significantly better. I know last winter they showed week 4 mild virtually the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Our 11th-13th period looks the same on the weeklies Images form wxbell Sent from my iPhone Weeklies are the 0z EPS run from last night and it extends out from day 15 till day 32. It's like the DGEX/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 No, no I do not...haha. It's truncated but not in the sense of last GFS OP. From what I can find: Old GFS: 0-240hr 27km, 240hr+ 84km New GFS: 0-240hr 13km, 240hr+ 35km So 240+ is actually pretty close to the old resolution of 0-240hrs but not quite. That would explain it. I felt like it was still truncated...but I think the difference is on the old GFS everything came out kind of blobby where as this looks like the higher resolution of before 240...but again you can always tell it's off and doesn't fit from 240 - 252. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The euro weeklies as a whole are pretty bad, the EPS tends to verify significantly better. I know last winter they showed week 4 mild virtually the entire winterAgreed, just trying to keep everyone on edge :-)The new 46 day weeklies that ran Monday were awesome though end of run, small relax in the middle but not Dec crap. Those come out in a hour or so. Relax makes sense but not a -PNA relax, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Is it too much to ask to get into a sustained winter pattern? In the history of our weather has a sustained winter pattern ever happened outside of a few record breaking years (which statistically are anomalies)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 So we buy EPS days 12-15 but not days 19+? Is it too much to ask to get into a sustained winter pattern? CR - yes. Honestly I wouldn't put too much into the weeklies past week 2...again, changing weather pattern...no model is going to be consistent in the LR now and the weeklies isn't immune. The last 15 days of Jan is still up in the air and we're starting off good, focus on that. I'll upload this since it's the old run, but here's what it showed last week for what is now our first storm chance. NOT gospel by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Weeklies are the 0z EPS run from last night and it extends out from day 15 till day 32. It's like the DGEX/NAM. To an extent, I think there are some differences as far as resolution and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Jon, thanks for the GFS info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Agreed, just trying to keep everyone on edge :-) The new 46 day weeklies that ran Monday were awesome though end of run, small relax in the middle but not Dec crap. Those come out in a hour or so. Relax makes sense but not a -PNA relax, I hope. It's always scary for everyone when December torches and then we go cold in early to mid January. Many winters have done that and just gone right back to torching in late January to February but very few of those have been El Niños, most of those tend to be weak La Niñas or neutral for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 CR - yes. Honestly I wouldn't put too much into the weeklies past week 2...again, changing weather pattern...no model is going to be consistent in the LR now and the weeklies isn't immune. The last 15 days of Jan is still up in the air and we're starting off good, focus on that. I'll upload this since it's the old run, but here's what it showed last week for what is now our first storm chance. NOT gospel by any means. I think/hope we get sustained in Feb, Jan will bounce around but definitely don't want to see AK low again this winter. Those seem to take a long time to shake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Didn't you WxBell folks see the 00z 12/28 run of the parallel Euro? It built the ridge into the east in late Jan and then reverted back to the -EPO look with a trough over the SE look during the first week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Jon, thanks for the GFS info.No problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This was a nasty relax which flipped end of Jan and sustained into early March...repeat would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 So we buy EPS days 12-15 but not days 19+?we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This was a nasty relax which flipped end of Jan and sustained into early March...repeat would be nice. Exactly. Sustained is hard to come by, and that period you posted produced this system 4 days later: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ Relax is inevitable, reload will hopefully come. I could see a 10 day relax and reload for Feb honestly...something for others to keep in mind before getting discouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 In the history of our weather has a sustained winter pattern ever happened outside of a few record breaking years (which statistically are anomalies)? Not usually, from a snow producing standpoint. It would be nice to see a cold pattern start to lock in in the lr and not show a reversion back to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Exactly. Sustained is hard to come by, and that period you posted produced this system 4 days later: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ Relax is inevitable, reload will hopefully come. I could see a 10 day relax and reload for Feb honestly...something for others to keep in mind before getting discouraged. Well it's hard to call a potential Jan 20-30 a relax, the relax is the Jan 12-19th window, LOL. It would be 7 weeks of crap and 1 good week for Dec-Jan. And, we are hoping for a good week, that's still models fantasy, day 10+. Persistence can be tough to shake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Well it's hard to call a potential Jan 20-30 a relax, the relax is the Jan 12-19th window, LOL. It would be 7 weeks of crap and 1 good week for Dec-Jan. And, we are hoping for a good week, that's still models fantasy, day 10+. Persistence can be tough to shake.Thanks for not dissapointing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Thanks for not dissapointing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 From what I'm seeing it looks like you guys have the best pattern for cold snow setting up in quite a few years. Might not happen as quickly as everyone wants but seeing the EPS push the 0c 850 line down to basically the FL panhandle 2 runs in a row is a big deal. The signal is really strong for the EPS when it shows such a departure from climo norms at long leads. You don't see that very often. Think about the torch. It looked really strong at long leads but ended up even warmer than we could have ever drawn up. Now we're seeing anomalies the other direction. That epo ridge is going to build and dump some impressive air masses and the pattern is prime to push them way further south than normal. Even if nothing good happens in the next 2 weeks, things are looking pretty good beyond that as well. Probably not a one hit wonder pattern. I know that's been in the back of all of our minds. Still could be the case but at least it's looking less likely as we move forward in time. Can I just say this is the POST of the season...Just...very damn good post...Thankyou for that! EPS showing that much cold, if correct** and keep showing it** Will likely, IMHO (Like you said as well) verify even colder. Thats just the 0c line at H85...The 2m temps are gonna put in the freezer at times. We are going to end up OVER 10 degrees above normal for DEC...The atmos is gonna want to try and balance that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This is the first weeklies run of the season that shows cold in the east...Not one run previous run ever had 2m temps BN for any day. Mack - do I get credit for a positive post? I have had like 10 posts today, 8 positive and 2 negative, I am keeping score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Not usually, from a snow producing standpoint. It would be nice to see a cold pattern start to lock in in the lr and not show a reversion back to crap. Winter weather outside of the mountains seems to always strike near the end of a cold pattern and right before the switch to warm/seasonal. Minus some of the golden years. I just can't see any lock to the cold air this winter with such an active southern stream, I think it's going to come in brief narrow windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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