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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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12z GEFS looking better with a potent EC trough and a picture perfect block over the top. This is why you trust the indices and not wacky 06z runs (i.e. yesterday's runs). Expect the trend to continue, no chance IMO this flips. Strong signal.

bea2e5c74c0f3bbb0a936d1bef02adcc.jpg

Good post and beautiful map! Other thing to note is if the indices verify as currently shown and as depicted on this 12Z GFS map, actual temps will likely be colder than currently modeled. This also has the look of a stable blocking pattern being established and not transient. Beautiful site!
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Ok so it's still 300 hours away. This cool down is hardly bringing us to normal with above normal to come roaring back for at least a few days. Maybe one day I'll check in and we won't have 300 hour porn but a great pattern within five days. 120 hours.

Glad to have to pick up where Pack left off! And we are inside 300 hours by quite a bit, so thanks for keeping it classy!
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Ok so it's still 300 hours away. This cool down is hardly bringing us to normal with above normal to come roaring back for at least a few days. Maybe one day I'll check in and we won't have 300 hour porn but a great pattern within five days. 120 hours.

 

Good deal.  Check back in 300 hours.

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Ok so it's still 300 hours away. This cool down is hardly bringing us to normal with above normal to come roaring back for at least a few days. Maybe one day I'll check in and we won't have 300 hour porn but a great pattern within five days. 120 hours.

it's not 300 hours away. Check back again with us in may that would be great!
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Glad to have to pick up where Pack left off! And we are inside 300 hours by quite a bit, so thanks for keeping it classy!

Why am I getting lumped in, LOL. I post just as much positive stuff as I do negative, people just freak out about the negative stuff and don't recall the positive stuff I send out... :-)

Like this...

bacd2c7d22f2d5ee7acf4c33f3660d8b.jpg

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Ok so it's still 300 hours away. This cool down is hardly bringing us to normal with above normal to come roaring back for at least a few days. Maybe one day I'll check in and we won't have 300 hour porn but a great pattern within five days. 120 hours.

Here to stir the pot I see? Lol Lithuania loves to get a reaction. He has said it himself. Everyone focus on that greenland block CR posted and not the negativity posted to get your feathers ruffled.
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Ok so it's still 300 hours away. This cool down is hardly bringing us to normal with above normal to come roaring back for at least a few days. Maybe one day I'll check in and we won't have 300 hour porn but a great pattern within five days. 120 hours.

 

*cough cough* Normal eh?

 

gem_T2m_us_22.png

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And sadly, cold air behind in TX and OK! It's just setting the table for the day 15 storm!

Details mean nothing the idea is starting to show in the ops . 12z euro day ten looks just like the eps with the trough rotating east with a wave developing

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Some were looking at model output at 500mb saying that we would be heading back above normal Tuesday 1/5. I like JB's old saying applied here that we do not live at 500mb. This will be especially important for us to remember the next couple months looking at models. With a strong El Nino and active STJ, 500mb temps will likely show warmer that what actually happens at the surface. This will be especially true if current NAO, AO, and PNA trends continue.

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Nope not here to stir the pot. I see lots of great patterns on 300 hour panels. That is stating a fact. Show me the great indicies in the 5-10 day frame and I'll get a little excited.

As for my normal comment. Here where I live we aren't going that far below normal. A normal high is around 50 I'll see some mid 40's. Big whoop, followed by some upper 50s and 60's back above normal. Who knows maybe we do get great teleconnextijns and some winter weather to go with it. Color me skeptical until it gets inside a reasonable range.

You guys can call this stirring the pot. I call it looking at a map and giving an opinion. It happens every year. Unless you are full blown weenie you're stirring the pot or not here in good faith. Maybe just maybe there is something to what I'm saying. Take off the rose colored glasses and look a bit closer. We are still a long way away from where we need to be. December was a torch, Jan looks to start cool but pretty close to seasonal then back up for a few days. After that we are too far out to get excited. I remember the days where posting 300 hour maps to further a point was laughed at.

Again, all I'm saying is let's see this -NAO/-AO/+PNA get a bit closer before getting excited. This has huge bust potential. Sure it could absolute happen but the rug could also get pulled pretty quick. I read someone saying that the blocking had staying power. We can't know that right now and it's that kind of ridiculous hyperbole that isn't welcome not my opinion that I'd like to see this get Ina. Reasonable range before buying in.

Happy new year, you haters keep hating.

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Hour 240 on the Euro looks fine to me. Big highs dropping into the plains with energy pushing east building in the Gulf. Models always downplay the cold air associated with highs dropping out of Canada. A 1036 will do the trick and has potential with that setup. This is the look I want to see coming to fruition. Still in fantasy land but hopefully it's on to something.

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Nope not here to stir the pot. I see lots of great patterns on 300 hour panels. That is stating a fact. Show me the great indicies in the 5-10 day frame and I'll get a little excited.

As for my normal comment. Here where I live we aren't going that far below normal. A normal high is around 50 I'll see some mid 40's. Big whoop, followed by some upper 50s and 60's back above normal. Who knows maybe we do get great teleconnextijns and some winter weather to go with it. Color me skeptical until it gets inside a reasonable range.

You guys can call this stirring the pot. I call it looking at a map and giving an opinion. It happens every year. Unless you are full blown weenie you're stirring the pot or not here in good faith. Maybe just maybe there is something to what I'm saying. Take off the rose colored glasses and look a bit closer. We are still a long way away from where we need to be. December was a torch, Jan looks to start cool but pretty close to seasonal then back up for a few days. After that we are too far out to get excited. I remember the days where posting 300 hour maps to further a point was laughed at.

Again, all I'm saying is let's see this -NAO/-AO/+PNA get a bit closer before getting excited. This has huge bust potential. Sure it could absolute happen but the rug could also get pulled pretty quick. I read someone saying that the blocking had staying power. We can't know that right now and it's that kind of ridiculous hyperbole that isn't welcome not my opinion that I'd like to see this get Ina. Reasonable range before buying in.

Happy new year, you haters keep hating.

Are you in northern or central GA? The GFS has almost all of GA in the upper 30s except extreme southern Georgia. Euro has the same for Tuesday and Wednesday. That's significantly BN by 10-15F for a few days. Also models are showing the great pattern in the 240-276 range so well below the 300 hour mark. Furthermore people said the same thing mid December when models showed a cooler pattern for early January, said it wouldn't happen and we would torch all January. Now here we are the first week of January with only 2 out of 7 days AN according to the Euro.

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