Met1985 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Now all we need is consistency and for other models to begin catching on, then someone can start the thread if all that happens. It's amazing how much of a difference there was in one run at only 132 hours out.Exactly. As I mentioned earlier you cannot trust just one model run. This is the time frame the euro really shines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 FWIW the 00z GEFS took a step towards the Euro ensembles, much cooler D11-15 while Euro ensembles hold serve. Looks better and better for the cold to move in January 10-11 as the indices tank the next week or so. Good trends indeed The best thing I see about this morning's runs is that the 6Z GEFS caved to the Euro ENS in bringing the lower heights east and getting rid of the eastern ridging. I believe we now have a consensus on that, when just a few days ago it was the other way around. Aleutian low looks to be in a much better position under 300 hours. Nice setup indeed for early-mid January. Ducks on the pond, players on the field, dig baby dig, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Indices continue to look very promising this morning. PNA - Not as positive in the LR, but still stays positive AO - Still tanks strongly negative NAO - Now definitely in the negative territory in the LR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 No worries, Burger. Just having some fun. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like we're back up again. What a difference 24 hours make, huh? Daily update time: And the MJO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Let's compare the 36 hours of runs for the 10-15 period on GEFS...consistent don't you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Let's compare the 36 hours of runs for the 10-15 period on GEFS...consistent don't you think. Consistent from Alaska to Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Consistent from Alaska to Greenland What's up with this? Not even Jan yet and calling for no help from strat on HLB until March? Based on what he is saying we would need to see SSWE now for effect in early Feb? Obviously he is way smarter than me but I don't get this at all. Granted, this doesn't mean anything unless we actually get a SSWE, LOL. 09 and 10 split end of Jan that produced strong blocking in Feb. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/682565950042992640 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 What's up with this? Not even Jan yet and calling for no help from strat on HLB until March? Based on what he is saying we would need to see SSWE now for effect in early Feb? Obviously he is way smarter than me but I don't get this at all. Granted, this doesn't mean anything unless we actually get a SSWE, LOL. 09 and 10 split end of Jan that produced strong blocking in Feb. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/682565950042992640 Complex subject. Feb seems to do well with -AO in ninos regardless. 04-05 and 06-07 both similar to this year with +QBO and neutral to borderline low solar flux...both with -AO Feb. 07 had SSW, 05 didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Like the way CFS finished out the month for Jan temps...slightly below normal for SE with suppressed storm track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Let's compare the 36 hours of runs for the 10-15 period on GEFS...consistent don't you think. Even the mini torch is gone from the 0z 850mb EPS temperature anomaly. 0-5, 6-10, and 11-15 are all normal to colder than normal for Tennessee. For the southeast, only the 0-5 is above normal (1-2c), the 6-10 below normal, and 11-15 MUCH below normal. Additionally, day 11 0z EPS is showing a cluster of lows along the central gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Like the way CFS finished out the month for Jan temps...slightly below normal for SE with suppressed storm track... Today's run was extremely important. With a 0 day lead, the CFSv2 does decently enough [w/ skill of 0.4-0.7 (correlation) or so I believe, hard to tell with the skill maps] It's done very well this fall and for December....but when it comes to Jan, and out of the last 4 winters, it nailed only two, as seen in the image below: Jan 2015 - too warm over SE Jan 2014 - nailed it Jan 2013 - too cold over SE Jan 2012 - nailed it Let's hope this is a year it nails January and not a year it's too warm...honestly in the image you posted above, Jan 30 isn't even that bad...normal or slightly above normal for most of the SE (0.5) that's not bad for an El Nino pattern. Today's run just got that much better. I'm leaning towards a "nailed it" result for the CFSv2 this January simply based on the look it spit out today. Not too oppressively cold or warm for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Even the mini torch is gone from the 0z 850mb EPS temperature anomaly. 0-5, 6-10, and 11-15 are all normal to colder than normal for Tennessee. For the southeast, only the 0-5 is above normal (1-2c), the 6-10 below normal, and 11-15 MUCH below normal. Additionally, day 11 0z EPS is showing a cluster of lows along the central gulf coast. Yeah, I just mentioned that in the banter thread. EPS say what warmth, it's cold, then neutral then really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Today's run was extremely important. With a 0 day lead, the CFSv2 does decently enough [w/ skill of 0.4-0.7 (correlation) or so I believe, hard to tell with the skill maps] It's done very well this fall and for December....but when it comes to Jan, and out of the last 4 winters, it nailed only two, as seen in the image below: Jan 2015 - too warm over SE Jan 2014 - nailed it Jan 2013 - too cold over SE Jan 2012 - nailed it Let's hope this is a year it nails January and not a year it's too warm...honestly in the image you posted above, Jan 30 isn't even that bad...normal or slightly above normal for most of the SE (0.5) that's not bad for an El Nino pattern. Today's run just got that much better. I'm leaning towards a "nailed it" result for the CFSv2 this January simply based on the look it spit out today. Not too oppressively cold or warm for the SE. Agreed, I think it does fairly well when you blend the last few runs of the month. Slightly BN with suppressed storm track would do fine, more fine for the mountains. We will get our fair share of 35F rains but hopefully 1 or 2 are just cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Today's run was extremely important. With a 0 day lead, the CFSv2 does decently enough [w/ skill of 0.4-0.7 (correlation) or so I believe, hard to tell with the skill maps] Today's run just got that much better. I'm leaning towards a "nailed it" result for the CFSv2 this January simply based on the look it spit out today. Not too oppressively cold or warm for the SE. Thanks for putting that information together Jon, nicely done! I am curious to see how it does too. If it struggles, it won't surprise me, as there is a rather large scale pattern change underway. It wouldn't surprise me if it's underdone on the cold for the southeast and other parts of North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like we're back up again. What a difference 24 hours make, huh? Daily update time: ao.sprd2.jpg And the MJO: NCPE_phase_21m_small.jpg lol, the NAO is great rain....it just wont "go to your HOME", are too good for your HOME? Just not quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Latest JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The best thing I see about this morning's runs is that the 6Z GEFS caved to the Euro ENS in bringing the lower heights east and getting rid of the eastern ridging. I believe we now have a consensus on that, when just a few days ago it was the other way around. Aleutian low looks to be in a much better position under 300 hours. Nice setup indeed for early-mid January. Ducks on the pond, players on the field, dig baby dig, etc... Crazy what an ensemble model can spit out in only 24 hours time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 lol, the NAO is great rain....it just wont "go to your HOME", are too good for your HOME? Just not quite there yet. Can't...quite...seem...to...ever...get...there. Maybe soon, we can put up a victory pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z gfs still has the 11-13th system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z gfs still has the 11-13th system. Same period as the eps , nice gulf low. Good agreement this far out . Nice signal Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Same period as the eps , nice gulf low. Good agreement this far out . Nice signal Sent from my iPhone yep, ill take this low placement every day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Day 12+ is a straight freezer on the 12z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Day 12+ is a straight freezer on the 12z GFS..Yep a very stable trough in the East. I would not rule out something like this according to the indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Wxrisk.com added 3 new photos.1 hr · ** ALERT ** SNOWSTORM THREAT FOR EAST COAST -- from western NC into all of VA WVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Day 12+ is a straight freezer on the 12z GFS.. Yep a very stable trough in the East. I would not rule out something like this according to the indices. Stating the obvious, but that should be a period of heightened interest. The preceding system coming out of the southwest is likely more of a player north of our forum IMO, but not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Stating the obvious, but that should be a period of heightened interest. The preceding system coming out of the southwest is likely more of a player north of our forum IMO, but not out of the question.Yeah that period is very interesting and would not be surprised if something popped up once we get closer to that period that's not being shown currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z GEFS looking better with a potent EC trough and a picture perfect block over the top. This is why you trust the indices and not wacky 06z runs (i.e. yesterday's runs). Expect the trend to continue, no chance IMO this flips. Strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 This is a textbook example of a west-based -NAO/Greenland block. It's a beaut, Clark, it's a beaut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z GEFS looking better with a potent EC trough and a picture perfect block over the top. This is why you trust the indices and not wacky 06z runs (i.e. yesterday's runs). Expect the trend to continue, no chance IMO this flips. Strong signal. I agree Jon, when the model shows indices opposite of what it's actual forecast depiction is, something is not right and has to give, this time it is the actual forecast depiction not the indices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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