MichaelJ Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Remember the EURO has a bias to hold energy back in the trough to the SW and will eventually catch up and move it into the main axis closer in time to the actual event.(meaning we could be in business in the SE/MA). What we have to hope for now is some model consistency for 3-4 runs in a row and then we have something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like several were quick to pile on...I like it! :-) I thought we toss LR ensembles due to model volatility The control run is interesting. Nope just follow the trends and give the Euro ensembles the most weight of the three. By trends I mean what they show over 2-3 days versus 1 model run to the next. That's the main way I use ensembles in the LR and it works quite well. Also I went back to December 20th model runs valid at 12z and compared the GFS, Euro, GEFS and EPS projections for today. I'll post the images and let everyone comment on which model seemed to verify the best at 500mb.First the GFS as of 12z today (hour 00) to show the 500mb heights currently. Now the four model runs for today valid for 12z December 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Canadian ensembles are similar to the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I think it goes back to Grit's post earlier today in regard to the AMO, does it go negative and the lower heights run south near the Aleutians, or does it stay positive and cause the SE ridge to poke up....that may be the key in the change on the EURO?Just to clarify Niner, the post earlier was about the WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 For those without access to the Euro ensembles I'll do a quick breakdown. January 3-6th we have at or BN 850 temps. January 7-11th we go AN at 850 then we transition on the 11th and by January 12th through the end of the run we are solidly in well BN 850 temps. CMC ensembles are similar with a broader trough and slightly further east at the end of the run. Both are much different than the GFS with a colder end of run pattern and not as warm in between. My above post about the model verification shows which ones did best in mid December for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Do I see CAD in there?No, I haven't seen him post in awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just to clarify Niner, the post earlier was about the WPO - Western Pacific Oscillation Yeah, sorry about that...WPO...lol, that's what I meant. Seriously with all the indices!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Straight up Miller A on the 12z Euro Control run. The snow map is meh Looks good in the Ohio valley though Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The snow map is meh Looks good in the Ohio valley though Sent from my iPhone It never snows in Alabama anyway! Plus, it's underestimating the strength of the ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The snow map is meh Looks good in the Ohio valley though Sent from my iPhone Can't agree or disagree, but details are the last thing I am worried about at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Can't agree or disagree, but details are the last thing I am worried about at this point. I was kidding around honestly . We all know nothing is a sure thing until we see snow maps lol I agree that details at this point do not mean anything . Good to see the agreement moving forward. The GEFS seems to be lagging behind just a bit. Will be interesting to see if it catches up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I was kidding around honestly . We all know nothing is a sure thing until we see snow maps lol I agree that details at this point do not mean anything . Good to see the agreement moving forward. The GEFS seems to be lagging behind just a bit. Will be interesting to see if it catches up There does seem to be good agreement in the longer range with the Euro and Canadian ensembles. I am not really all that worried about the GFS or GEFS at this point, but I would like to see the Euro/Canadian wholesale changes move inside of 240..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 There does seem to be good agreement in the longer range with the Euro and Canadian ensembles. I am not really all that worried about the GFS or GEFS at this point, but I would like to see the Euro/Canadian wholesale changes move inside of 240..... lolI agree 100 percent. Hopefully by late this coming weekend we will be inside 240 Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It never snows in Alabama anyway! Plus, it's underestimating the strength of the ridge!hahaI had a 6 inch snow last year in February and a 4 inch storm in 2013 . I've hit the jackpot the last two winters . Of course I can thank the EPO for that . While the EPO looks to build in the LR you have to question its stability Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That map that ncrain posted if taken vert..... neither or snow/ice. A exiting CAD= cold rain. Notice the red isotherm. The pretend snow line. No where near the pretend moisture. One thing Ive noticed looking at the previous maps and discos... That given if a neg nao pattern does set up with the el nino pattern aloft if you look at the the mean flow. That the mean trough axis may set up off the SE coast to SE Canada favoring the NE for good storms. Not so much for the Se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That map that ncrain posted if taken vert..... neither or snow/ice. A exiting CAD= cold rain. Notice the red isotherm. The pretend snow line. No where near the pretend moisture. One thing Ive noticed looking at the previous maps and discos... That given if a neg nao pattern does set up with the el nino pattern aloft if you look at the the mean flow. That the mean trough axis may set up off the SE coast to SE Canada favoring the NE for good storms. Not so much for the Se. The red isotherm line in Maine? That is the 0c line? That doesn't make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It never snows in Alabama anyway! Plus, it's underestimating the strength of the ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It does. When you have an exiting HP GOM LP and broad Lp trough axis near the Great Lakes in the mid and upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 IM referring to ncrains post about 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Do I see CAD in there? Present and accounted for. Ready for some winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That map that ncrain posted if taken vert..... neither or snow/ice. A exiting CAD= cold rain. Notice the red isotherm. The pretend snow line. No where near the pretend moisture. One thing Ive noticed looking at the previous maps and discos... That given if a neg nao pattern does set up with the el nino pattern aloft if you look at the the mean flow. That the mean trough axis may set up off the SE coast to SE Canada favoring the NE for good storms. Not so much for the Se. The 32F surface line is in NC. I'm pretty sure the red 0 line on that map is the 0F isotherm at the surface. 850s are not shown. Given the setup, I'd expect snow for at least NC. Not that it matters... It's a 300+ hour control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 JMA strat day 8...curious if seasonal tomorrow morning reflects blocking and for how long. #10hpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Why are people analyzing in detail the specifics of a run way out in the extended range? The details like CAD, 32F isotherm, 850 0C line, etc will change many times between now and then and the storm itself will also. No need to look at specifics until we are within 120 hours of a legit threat. The only thing people should be looking at in the LR is the overall trends of the Ensembles and the general pattern setup, which the past few days has been good despite one or two "off" runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Why are people analyzing in detail the specifics of a run way out in the extended range? The details like CAD, 32F isotherm, 850 0C line, etc will change many times between now and then and the storm itself will also. No need to look at specifics until we are within 120 hours of a legit threat. The only thing people should be looking at in the LR is the overall trends of the Ensembles and the general pattern setup, which the past few days has been good despite one or two "off" runs. Look man, the people are fiending for some action! If we can't overanalyze a storm inside of 144hr, we're gonna overanalyze a storm at 344hr, capiche? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You are right SJ its 300+ out. Not that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 haha I had a 6 inch snow last year in February and a 4 inch storm in 2013 . I've hit the jackpot the last two winters . Of course I can thank the EPO for that . While the EPO looks to build in the LR you have to question its stability Sent from my iPhone Bullarkey! You can thank one of the best deformation bands I have ever seen head right over your head. The snow rates were outrageous! (I guess the EPO helped but that was a crazy event and I was jealous!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 JMA strat day 8...curious if seasonal tomorrow morning reflects blocking and for how long. #10hpa Better hope that dont come to fruition. As standing equal a cold suppressed equation. PV FROM to Nova Sco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Better hope that dont come to fruition. As standing equal a cold suppressed equation. PV FROM to Nova Sco. Would prefer to miss a storm to the south than the north. Many on here have stated many times that they hate cold/dry but man it would be nice to even see that after the December we just went though. Also there have been folks south of NC that really haven't seen a good winter storm in a few years, so I would be happy to see them score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Were there any changes on the 18z GEFS? There's never as much ballyhoo with the happy hour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Were there any changes on the 18z GEFS? There's never as much ballyhoo with the happy hour runs. Max said it was terrible again, so I didn't bother. :shrug: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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