mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 12z Euro at 240. What a beautiful setup. 850 temps a need to chill down but love the look. Stop raining on Packs' gloom and doom , torch parade. , with good news and cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 JohnWow bringing the goods! CAD wedge incoming with that HP moving across the lakes with a big ball of energy underneath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 JohnWow bringing the goods! CAD wedge incoming with that HP moving across the lakes with a big ball of energy underneath! it looks similar to what DT is talking about with yesterdays EPS run. I have to believe that scenario rolled forward would produce for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 JohnWow bringing the goods! CAD wedge incoming with that HP moving across the lakes with a big ball of energy underneath! GEM shows possible over running/onset type event 240 hrs out.....wouldn't hurt to see that high get stronger say 1030-1035 or better and maybe a smidge further south even still that is close to a onset event with some token flakes/pingers for a lot of NC/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 12z Euro is really showing what that -NAO will do as far as keeping the LP close to the coast. 8-10 days out and this is a very solid look. Will be interested to see what the EPS has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Interesting comments from the CPC from their long range hazard forecast. They tend to focus on the synoptic pattern and not specific models or sensible weather details. For Wednesday January 06 - Tuesday January 12: The heavy rain and snow hazards over parts of the Southwest linger into the Week-2 period. Anomalous ridging is forecast to develop over northwestern North America, while a trough undercuts the ridge near the West Coast. Downstream, a weak ridge is forecast over the eastern CONUS. That ridge, however, seems transient given the large scale hemispheric pattern change that is forecast and the anomalous ridging over northwestern North America. There is likely to be an active storm track across the southern tier of the CONUS, though details are very uncertain at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I can't imagine something could cut with a set up like that but I have seen a lot of strange things...the CAD signature should become evident I would think just beyond this frame The Euro has become a cutter loving model in the Day 6-10 period ever since its upgrade 5 or so years ago. It will often show cutters in a pattern that isn't conducive to them and then adjust inside 144 hours. That isn't exactly a pattern where a cutter is impossible but it's a bit less likely than in other setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Watching the Euro Ensemble come in...there is nice west coast ridging behind the SW wave during hr198 thru 240 which helps in keeping the wave somewhat suppressed early on. Meanwhile heights are falling through SE Canada. It's a beautiful setup, but we need the whole height pattern in the eastern US and Canada to be shifted farther south (maybe down the road in this strong nino?). As it stands, at hr 270, the sfc low is over Alabama while the 850 0 deg stretches from Little Rock to Baltimore. Going to likely be a significant system, which I think favors the Ohio Valley to New England as the core area for wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Watching the Euro Ensemble come in...there is nice west coast ridging behind the SW wave during hr198 thru 240 which helps in keeping the wave somewhat suppressed early on. Meanwhile heights are falling through SE Canada. It's a beautiful setup, but we need the whole height pattern in the eastern US and Canada to be shifted farther south (maybe down the road in this strong nino?). As it stands, at hr 270, the sfc low is over Alabama while the 850 0 deg stretches from Little Rock to Baltimore. Going to likely be a significant system, which I think favors the Ohio Valley to New England as the core area for wintry precip. Straight freezer day 12+. Good grief...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yummy..... Good seeing the eps continue to move the trough to the east image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 DT storms lives, would be beast mode for lots in TN Valley/MA/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Nino year ride the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yummy..... Good seeing the eps continue to move the trough to the east image from wxbellSent from my iPhone Hey it's inside 300 hours now As expected the GEFS trended better in today's 12z run and Euro ensembles continue to indicate the January 10th timeframe for the sustained trough and western PNA ridging to really begin taking hold. We are inside 300 hours on this too, about 276 hours is when we see the trough begin setting up over the central US and sliding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Straight freezer day 12+. Good grief...lol.The trend is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That's not going out on that big a limb, the first 2 weeks are a given, so another week for things to shake/rattle/roll. Seems reasonable...I think we need a SSWE more than originally thought. I am smelling a clunker of a EPS run in a couple of hours. no clunker today.Great eps run and it continues to build the PNA ridge thru the run. Cmc ensembles coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That's not going out on that big a limb, the first 2 weeks are a given, so another week for things to shake/rattle/roll. Seems reasonable...I think we need a SSWE more than originally thought. I am smelling a clunker of a EPS run in a couple of hours. Looked a great run to me the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Has anybody dont research trying to compare Apples and Oranges with the winter of 99 00 to this winter? I remember that it was mild execept last part of Jan. Then the heat came again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Has anybody dont research trying to compare Apples and Oranges with the winter of 99 00 to this winter? I remember that it was mild execept last part of Jan. Then the heat came again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 no clunker today. Great eps run and it continues to build the PNA ridge thru the run. Cmc ensembles coming soon. The CMC ensembles have been surprisingly consistent and actually in good agreement with the Euro ensembles. They are similar with the features except the trough a little further east. I expect the 12z run to show similar results with the trough similar to the EPS. GEFS is on an island of its own for now but even it comes around somewhat by January 11-12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like several were quick to pile on...I like it! :-) I thought we toss LR ensembles due to model volatility The control run is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Straight up Miller A on the 12z Euro Control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The CMC ensembles have been surprisingly consistent and actually in good agreement with the Euro ensembles. They are similar with the features except the trough a little further east. I expect the 12z run to show similar results with the trough similar to the EPS. GEFS is on an island of its own for now but even it comes around somewhat by January 11-12th. CMC-ENS and EPS v/s GEFS...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Straight up Miller A on the 12z Euro Control run.The same one that had a ridge in the middle of the country just a day ago during this same period lolBy the way I'm not picking at your post just pointing out how it flips like everything else Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Do I see CAD in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like several were quick to pile on...I like it! :-) I thought we toss LR ensembles due to model volatility The control run is interesting. we're tossing the gfs due to its volatility and the fact we are heading into phase 8 of the mjo,-ao,-epo,+PNA that's not a warm signal. Eps and cmc say it's on crack.Anyways we would all be tossing the gfs if it was the only one showing a snowstorm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like several were quick to pile on...I like it! :-) I thought we toss LR ensembles due to model volatility The control run is interesting. Yeah pack, look at the model now huh, what do you have to say now huh?! Booyah. Come on let's get em guys!!...(gets behind the crowd and scurries out the door) lol, yeah, that EURO ENS run is what I'm talking about. Keep that consistent and I'll be a happy camper! Love the trough placement. Hopefully GEFS follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The same one that had a ridge in the middle of the country just a day ago during this same period lol Sent from my iPhone No one knows which will come closer to verifying, but with the -AO, +PNA, -EPO, and -NAO the run from today is much more plausible IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 If the southeast wants a winter storm out of this we just need stronger blocking over HB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 No one knows which will come closer to verifying, but with the -AO, +PNA, -EPO, and -NAO the run from today is much more plausible IMO. I think it goes back to Grit's post earlier today in regard to the WPO, does it go negative and the lower heights run south near the Aleutians, or does it stay positive and cause the SE ridge to poke up....that may be the key in the change on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 As I said earlier, I am not ready to push all my chips to the center of the table yet. HOWEVER, I will take the strong consensus of the indices + plus the look of the Euro and it's ensembles over what the GEFS is selling any time. What I have seen today keeps me confident that a very good pattern is coming our way. I will take a few days of cool and dry though. If We get much more rain here in GA, we are going to need a boat to get anywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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