FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Yea, I don't think December is gonna be the huge torch everyone said it would be about 2 weeks ago. It does look like towards the end of next week it will warm up a decent bit, but I don't think the warmth will be as extreme as predicted. *Fingers crosssed*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 The AO goes Negative on Dec 11th on the Euro and is -2 by the 15. NAO is modestly negative by the 12th and the EPO goes negative around the 16th but the PNA also goes Negative around the 11th but is almost neutral by 16th. What happens to Temps with all of them Negative? I don't think I have seen that in a Nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 The AO goes Negative on Dec 11th on the Euro and is -2 by the 15. NAO is modestly negative by the 12th and the EPO goes negative around the 16th but the PNA also goes Negative around the 11th but is almost neutral by 16th. What happens to Temps with all of them Negative? I don't think I have seen that in a Nino year. SE ridge FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Really liking how the GFS has trended..... Looks like the arctic floodgates are poised to open soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Really liking how the GFS has trended..... Looks like the arctic floodgates are poised to open soon!! Problem is the GFS is still the GFS and the LR flips like a fish out of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Yea, never trust the GFS. even at 6 hours lol. The 0z and the 6z had major differentials from what I've noticed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Problem is the GFS is still the GFS and the LR flips like a fish out of water They might, but models arnt what they were a few years back. But the trends been really good for cold lovers. Might just have to stick it out for a few weeks. Yea, never trust the GFS. even at 6 hours lol. The 0z and the 6z had major differentials from what I've noticed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Problem is the GFS is still the GFS and the LR flips like a fish out of waterWe have our first overseas poster! Welcome!I've got mid to upper 60s from midweek til the weekend! that's torchy to me! #TICKTOCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 We have our first overseas poster! Welcome! I've got mid to upper 60s from midweek til the weekend! that's torchy to me! #TICKTOCK No more like over lake hartwell poster lol . I'm in Birmingham Alabama but thanks for the welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Up here, we're about +2 per day then we have a couple of days later next week around +5 or 6. So, lower to mid 50's for the most part which isn't bad. The problem is we're averaging about a +5 for lows (right at or just above freezing) for the next week which is limiting snowmaking to a huge degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weenie chaser 35 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Long range long range long ranges, let's kick that GFS A$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 The problem is, the Euro has taken a beating the past couple of winters. So hopefully this year the EURO will stand true to form. The Euro has a track record of performing better during El Niño winters so I would expect that. Last year was a castrated El Niño to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I've never heard it put that way, but I get what you're saying! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Nice concise analysis on the main board: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3783132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 No more like over lake hartwell poster lol . I'm in Birmingham Alabama but thanks for the welcome Welcome to the forum. Finally someone who is relatively close to me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Problem is the GFS is still the GFS and the LR flips like a fish out of water When it comes to snowfall I agree, and even 500mb patterns...but it does sniff out things. I've seen control runs sniff out those deep PV drops (or part of the PV) way before operationals show it. Euro control is notorious for this. So ignoring the LR GFS simply because it's LR, you're doing yourself a disservice. Trends is what it's about. BTW I'm just talking in general, not to you...just in case. Welcome to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Imagine that!? As soon as we hit winter, storms/precip, start under performing ! SMDH No worries....we'll keep getting rains until it turns colder T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Welcome to the forum. Finally someone who is relatively close to me ! Hmm. I might deputize him to check your obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 One takeaway is it at least goes to zonal flow near the end. That ridge is massive. Pacific Air blows warm DECEMBER TORCH IS AT + 2.7 SO FAR FOR GREENSBORO AFTER 4 DAYS. HAD A +11 ON DAY 2. +5.1 so far here at CAE Really liking how the GFS has trended..... Looks like the arctic floodgates are poised to open soon!! Congrats central and western states Warm and wet will continue for us here in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 One takeaway is it at least goes to zonal flow near the end. That ridge is massive. It's actually going zonal because the ensemble members vary greatly between one another, so the average of their outputs is zonal. If you look at the individual members, you can see that none of them are really zonal- there are just extremes on either end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 The AO goes Negative on Dec 11th on the Euro and is -2 by the 15. NAO is modestly negative by the 12th and the EPO goes negative around the 16th but the PNA also goes Negative around the 11th but is almost neutral by 16th. What happens to Temps with all of them Negative? I don't think I have seen that in a Nino year. Pna is the most critical. Got to get it posotive. All your doing is blocking pacific air. Need a big fat hp to drive the flow from Canada, even if it's above normal air for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weenie chaser 35 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Winter is not bad, if your a true weenie chaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Pna is the most critical. Got to get it posotive. All your doing is blocking pacific air. Need a big fat hp to drive the flow from Canada, even if it's above normal air for them. Yeah if we could get the GOA low to retrograde a bit it could help slow the pacific jet allowing for more of a positive pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 It's actually going zonal because the ensemble members vary greatly between one another, so the average of their outputs is zonal. If you look at the individual members, you can see that none of them are really zonal- there are just extremes on either end. Thanks for defining ensemble runs for me..... Congrats central and western states Warm and wet will continue for us here in the east West and North get their candy before us Let's hope we get our candy soon and lots of it! Been awhile since we had a nice ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Thanks for defining ensemble runs for me..... West and North get their candy before us Let's hope we get our candy soon and lots of it! Been awhile since we had a nice ice storm Gonna be awhile on the snow and ice storms! Can't get one at 50-70 degrees! #DECEMBERTOFORGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Looks like the torch really kicks in by next weekend! Awesomesauce ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 US National Weather Service New York NY 1 min · The winter is starting off rather tranquil and relatively mild for our area. Here is a brief explanation as to why, and what to expect through the middle of the month. #WhereisWinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I hope things change by the end of December. We always go up to my wife's grandparents in OH/WV around December 20-23.. I don't want it to be a torch up there! I like it cold and we usually see a little snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 384hr GFS cooks up a Christmas miracle. Enjoy it before 18z rolls around and drops a lump of coal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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