SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The map referenced is very strange. It would be very unusual if everything depicted on it verifies. Not saying that just because it shows higher heights in the SE, but because it has higher than normal heights in the SE US, Alaska and Greenland. To my naked and untrained eye, this is no monster ridge in the SE and there is still evidence of a STJ. I would not predict an ice box SE based on this, but neither would I broad brush a warm forecast either. Last thing to note is that it is one set of US ensembles. We shall see. Yeah very frustrating to see a -AO, -NAO, +PNA, etc and still have higher heights/warm temps in the east. Taking a trip to blowing rock last week in January, would love to have this figured all out by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah very frustrating to see a -AO, -NAO, +PNA, etc and still have higher heights/warm temps in the east. Taking a trip to blowing rock last week in January, would love to have this figured all out by then! Do you honestly believe with all of those in our favor we wouldn't score? Come on dude! When I look at the LR GFS from today it tells me the setup can be there...and with all those indices in our favor it would be near impossible not to get cold down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS looks like it's starting to catch on at 240...lots of cold air funneling into Canada, with warmer air starting to hit the west coast and that PNA+ starting to setup. It'll be interesting to see how the LR looks. You would think with the MJO forecast to head into phase 8 the models would catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah very frustrating to see a -AO, -NAO, +PNA, etc and still have higher heights/warm temps in the east. Taking a trip to blowing rock last week in January, would love to have this figured all out by then! Anytime you have energy dropping underneath the EPO ridge it's gonna raise heights in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Do you honestly believe with all of those in our favor we wouldn't score? Come on dude! When I look at the LR GFS from today it tells me the setup can be there...and with all those indices in our favor it would be near impossible not to get cold down here. I agree Burger. It was a good step for the GFS today, but I still don't think it has the right overall look. Really not trying to wishcast, but I think it will continue to show colder solutions in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I agree Burger. It was a good step for the GFS today, but I still don't think it has the right overall look. Really not trying to wishcast, but I think it will continue to show colder solutions in the coming days. Yea that's what I'm thinking as well. Seeing that "look" just says that there should be more to this story...but it's so far off who knows. Again though, with the indices in our favor (hopefully they will stay that way) it will look better. If we can get some big highs dropping into the plains and energy coming in from out west we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Sam Lillo made mention of the +WPO yesterday. So one thing to watch for is to see if the negative anomalies drop from NE Siberia / Bering Sea to south of the Aleutian Islands. If that happens, we should see a little more +PNA style response, though muted for strong nino. If not, well...You can see the SW US negative anomalies and eastern ridge and warmth associated with the +WPO. It's indices overload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This is from the 00z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You would think with the MJO forecast to head into phase 8 the models would catch up I want to say phase 8 of the MJO in El Niños is not as favorable as it is in neutral or La Niña years. That could only be in December but I want to say it's the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This is from the 00z GEFS You know, it's always a crap shoot whether a pattern produces an event but I'll take my chances with whats been shown. You've got to believe there's a better than 50/50 shot with what the indicies show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Mjo temp maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This is from the 00z GEFS I mean if that don't get it done then it just wasn't meant to be a cold snowy winter......someone in the SE will score between Jan 15th and Jan 30th....maybe a lot of us and several times..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Mjo temp mapscombined_image.png Here are the El Nino composites for MJO phases. Amplitude >1 (from what I understand) is Strong El Nino like we're in currently. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Check out Jan Phase 8-1 vs February Phase 8-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I mean if that don't get it done then it just wasn't meant to be a cold snowy winter......someone in the SE will score between Jan 15th and Jan 30th....maybe a lot of us and several times..... 8th to the 10th looks good, too. Won't need frigid cold for a while, just cold enough at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Already big changes in the 12z GEFS vs the 06z GEFS, one run flips as expected...the trough is elongated and undercuts the ridge on the east coast through Jan 7-8...a ridge moves in but is displaced by Jan 11, but the 06z GEFS had the ridge sustained through Jan 13th. By 12z on 1/12, we have a trough in the east. Looks more like the 18z and 0z GEFS runs recently...carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Sam Lillo made mention of the +WPO yesterday. So one thing to watch for is to see if the negative anomalies drop from NE Siberia / Bering Sea to south of the Aleutian Islands. If that happens, we should see a little more +PNA style response, though muted for strong nino. If not, well...You can see the SW US negative anomalies and eastern ridge and warmth associated with the +WPO. It's indices overload SW Aleutian low would go a long way, not a big low anomolies that stretches from Siberia to souther Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I want to say phase 8 of the MJO in El Niños is not as favorable as it is in neutral or La Niña years. That could only be in December but I want to say it's the entire winter Here are the El Nino composites for MJO phases. Amplitude >1 (from what I understand) is Strong El Nino like we're in currently. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Check out Jan Phase 8-1 vs February Phase 8-1 Here are the images for Phase 8 for all El Ninos for Dec/Jan/Feb (Allan is missing the Dec label on the first image, but I pulled it from his Dec Nino charts). You'd want to adjust the images for strong ninos. Jon - for amplitude, that's the amplitude of the MJO wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Here are the images for Phase 8 for all El Ninos for Dec/Jan/Feb (Allan is missing the Dec label on the first image, but I pulled it from his Dec Nino charts). You'd want to adjust the images for strong ninos. Jon - for amplitude, that's the amplitude of the MJO wave Oh ok. So the MJO is actually a wave now correct or at least an event is modeled? I've been reading that it's been worthless but as of late that's changing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Oh ok. So the MJO is actually a wave now correct or at least an event is modeled? I've been reading that it's been worthless but as of late that's changing? Yes, appears to be more of a true MJO wave now. A lot of that stuff is over my head, but Ventrice posts good info on it, as you know. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/681825849893629953 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/682141670482259968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 And look at that, to the half way point in Jan and same old same old. Verbatim, days 4-8 and days 15-16 are BN but everything in between is a mega torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 ^ We may be warm every month this winter, I don't know...but the 12z GEFS was a better run than 06z. The +WPO negative anomalies drop south of the Aleutians into a +PNA look. Meanwhile, Greenland, Alaska, and the Arctic all have higher than normal heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 ^ We may be warm every month this winter, I don't know...but the 12z GEFS was a better run than 06z. The +WPO negative anomalies drop south of the Aleutians into a +PNA look. Meanwhile, Greenland, Alaska, and the Arctic all have higher than normal heights. Possibly, but Feb would be a real shocker especially with a big nina coming next winter. I think Jan is toast, literally, atleast the first 2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Possibly, but Feb would be a real shocker especially with a big nina coming next winter. I think Jan is toast, literally, atleast the first 2/3. Nah, I think you guys in the SE end up better than we do up here even just past mid-Jan because of suppression that is only beginning to be modeled at this point. GEFS looked better to me today than 6z which tells me waffles are still being served on op runs and the cold shot next week looks colder than it did which make me believe the op runs don't have a handle yet. just my thought and hopefully you end up being surprised but in a good way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yes, appears to be more of a true MJO wave now. A lot of that stuff is over my head, but Ventrice posts good info on it, as you know. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/681825849893629953 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/682141670482259968 Yeah I miss some of his replies sometimes, good stuff. Some of the tropical wave type stuff is definitely over my head...constantly learning is key though, thanks. And look at that, to the half way point in Jan and same old same old. Verbatim, days 4-8 and days 15-16 are BN but everything in between is a mega torch. 500mb is not figured out yet and with drastic changes run to run, for the GEFS in particular, leads to unreliable 2mT forecasts...upper pattern and overall picture is key, I can't trust those temp maps right now. Can't buy it. Possibly, but Feb would be a real shocker especially with a big nina coming next winter. I think Jan is toast, literally, atleast the first 2/3. Writing off the first 20 days of Jan already? Hang in there man! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah I miss some of his replies sometimes, good stuff. Some of the tropical wave type stuff is definitely over my head...constantly learning is key though, thanks. 500mb is not figured out yet and with drastic changes run to run, for the GEFS in particular, leads to unreliable 2mT forecasts...upper pattern and overall picture is key, I can't trust those temp maps right now. Can't buy it. Writing off the first 20 days of Jan already? Hang in there man! lol That's not going out on that big a limb, the first 2 weeks are a given, so another week for things to shake/rattle/roll. Seems reasonable...I think we need a SSWE more than originally thought. I am smelling a clunker of a EPS run in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Sam Lillo made mention of the +WPO yesterday. So one thing to watch for is to see if the negative anomalies drop from NE Siberia / Bering Sea to south of the Aleutian Islands. If that happens, we should see a little more +PNA style response, though muted for strong nino. If not, well...You can see the SW US negative anomalies and eastern ridge and warmth associated with the +WPO. It's indices overload Ah, now that was the missing piece I was looking for. Thanks Grit. I couldn't understand why we didn't have a eastern trough with a plus PNA, it's the AMO and the location of the neg anomaly in the pacific. lol, it's always something isn't it? Crap weasel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That's not going out on that big a limb, the first 2 weeks are a given, so another week for things to shake/rattle/roll. Seems reasonable...I think we need a SSWE more than originally thought. I am smelling a clunker of a EPS run in a couple of hours. We'll see. The EXCAM model was updated with Monthly forecasts based off the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, just took a look and both look amazing at 500mb and 2m...not saying I believe it, but it will be interesting to see if it has any decent skill in being a weekly product we can utilize in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 12z Euro at 240. What a beautiful setup. 850 temps a need to chill down but love the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 We'll see. The EXCAM model was updated with Monthly forecasts based off the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, just took a look and both look amazing at 500mb and 2m...not saying I believe it, but it will be interesting to see if it has any decent skill in being a weekly product we can utilize in the long range.Pretty good op euro strat run...pushing all my chips in on strat saving us.Prelude to a weenie ENS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 12z Euro at 240. What a beautiful setup. 850 temps a need to chill down but love the look. I can't imagine something could cut with a set up like that but I have seen a lot of strange things...the CAD signature should become evident I would think just beyond this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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