2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone!  going to be doing another Facebook LIVE video if yall want to stop by and say hello, maybe a few questions about the pattern..or whatever...Football..you name it...If you don't want too, no worries!

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

[mackerel_sky]

Robert is a sensationalist as well as JB. Both have businesses that thrive when extreme weather strikes. Models look horrible. At best we get seasonal temperatures for a few days or weeks before we warm up again.

Roberts winter forecast.

I love this guy! That's when you know winter has arrived and even possible threats! The 3 amigos:

Packbacker, lithiumga_wx, mpq184!

When they are out in force, snow is on the horizon!

[mackerel_sky]

As the evidence builds for a pretty fast and complete turn around in our weather pattern beginning in a few days and intensifying as we get into January, the only thing I can see in the post from the SNlover is one of two things.

1.) a troll looking to stir the pot

2.) He/she sees the strong STJ cruising the southern US and things that means Zonal and mild.

A strong STJ with a ridge in W Canada and Blocking from the N Atlantic is the pattern we dream for if we want winter storms. It is a much better snow pattern for us than a roller coaster looking US with west way up (ridge) and the east way down (trough) and no ST flow. A pattern like that may deliver cold to us, but I have spent 24 years in Georgia watching the cold trough in the east come in, but have little blocking to slow the flow and no STJ to supply moisture. It may look good on a map, but does not often produce for us in the south. I will take what I am seeing and the evidence that is growing each day. Not ready to push all my chips to the center of the table yet, but my confidence and excitement is certainly on the rise!

Great post! And #1 is your answer! Happens every year, like death and taxes!

[griteater]

As the evidence builds for a pretty fast and complete turn around in our weather pattern beginning in a few days and intensifying as we get into January, the only thing I can see in the post from the SNlover is one of two things.

 

1.) a troll looking to stir the pot

2.) He/she sees the strong STJ cruising the southern US and things that means Zonal and mild.

 

A strong STJ with a ridge in W Canada and Blocking from the N Atlantic is the pattern we dream for if we want winter storms. It is a much better snow pattern for us than a roller coaster looking US with west way up (ridge) and the east way down (trough) and  no ST flow. A pattern like that may deliver cold to us, but I have spent 24 years in Georgia watching the cold trough in the east come in, but have little blocking to slow the flow and no STJ to supply moisture. It may look good on a map, but does not often produce for us in the south. I will take what I am seeing and the evidence that is growing each day. Not ready to push all my chips to the center of the table yet, but my confidence and excitement is certainly on the rise!

Nice post, agree 100%.  Our best 'patterns' come from a southern stream wave train that is displaced well south, along with strong blocking centered from Hudson Bay through southern Greenland.  Of course, individual storms occur in a multitude of setups.

[griteater]

EPS burys a SW trough so cold takes a little longer to develop but man does it go a classic SE winter storm setup by day 12+...

 

Not sure why I am showing this expect as I expect more changes, with the reshuffling, STJ going nuts I think it's going to be several days, maybe a week before we really know what mid-Jan is going to look like.

Pack - see the last line here from today's CPC 8-14 day disco regarding the SW trough...yes, it's going to take some time for us to get cold, but the ensembles are getting there beginning Jan 12th - I have this documented now so we'll see if it comes to fruition...way out in time obviously.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 12 2016   DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE  FORECAST DOMAIN IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. SPLIT  FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN  STREAM IS FORECAST NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, AN AMPLIFIED  RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN  ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS  RIDGE, A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS RESTRICT  THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH, RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT  ANOMALY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA  FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER, TELECONNECTIONS  FROM A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FAVOR  ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

[SN_Lover]

As the evidence builds for a pretty fast and complete turn around in our weather pattern beginning in a few days and intensifying as we get into January, the only thing I can see in the post from the SNlover is one of two things.

 

1.) a troll looking to stir the pot

2.) He/she sees the strong STJ cruising the southern US and things that means Zonal and mild.

 

A strong STJ with a ridge in W Canada and Blocking from the N Atlantic is the pattern we dream for if we want winter storms. It is a much better snow pattern for us than a roller coaster looking US with west way up (ridge) and the east way down (trough) and  no ST flow. A pattern like that may deliver cold to us, but I have spent 24 years in Georgia watching the cold trough in the east come in, but have little blocking to slow the flow and no STJ to supply moisture. It may look good on a map, but does not often produce for us in the south. I will take what I am seeing and the evidence that is growing each day. Not ready to push all my chips to the center of the table yet, but my confidence and excitement is certainly on the rise!

 

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here. 

[Wow]

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here. 

 

It is, you just have to pardon the weather weenies for their snow blinders at times.

[Jonathan]

If nothing else, Robert has nailed the early season heavy snow in the TX panhandle/NM/OK.

[superjames1992]

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here.

You should contact one of the mods and see about getting a red tag.

[packbacker]

Pack - see the last line here from today's CPC 8-14 day disco regarding the SW trough...yes, it's going to take some time for us to get cold, but the ensembles are getting there beginning Jan 12th - I have this documented now so we'll see if it comes to fruition...way out in time obviously.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 12 2016

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE

FORECAST DOMAIN IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. SPLIT

FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN

STREAM IS FORECAST NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, AN AMPLIFIED

RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN

ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS

RIDGE, A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS RESTRICT

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH, RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT

ANOMALY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA

FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER, TELECONNECTIONS

FROM A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FAVOR

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

So CPC expects SW trough to prevail through day 14, Interesting...still expect a plains to east trough, eventually. It just might be end of Jan. Still not sure if the next cold shot after the 12th is transient or not. Patience sucks, lol.

[griteater]

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here.

Guess I will say it since no one else has, but having a degree or title doesn't automatically make one an expert...and analysis that is sound and not condescending is always welcome

[Jon]

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here.

Ok then. Saying more than "zonal" may help people understand, but I'm no expert.

[SN_Lover]

You should contact one of the mods and see about getting a red tag.

meh, doesn't bother me, I'm not on here to promote anything. Just on here to give my thoughts

 

It is, you just have to pardon the weather weenies for their snow blinders at times.

 

I know. I want snow just as bad as everyone else. 

 

Ok then. Saying more than "zonal" may help people understand, but I'm no expert.

 

Iv'e been extremely busy over this holiday so don't get much time on the forum. Ill elaborate more later when i have more time  

[Batman]

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here.

Please show us your UNCC met degree expertise. Saying Zonal and the models are horrible is not showing us any expertise or skill that a met should have. Especially when the preponderance of evidence on the models, indices, and teleconnections says otherwise. If you want to see horrible models, the month of December was loaded with horrible models. What we are looking at now is much better. If you think otherwise, please give us your reasoning.

[CaryWx]

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here.

I may have missed it, but could you post your analysis to support the zonal flow?

[WxBlue]

I'm a Meteorologist so i'm a expert in this, and know what im talking about. But obviously my analysis isnt welcome here. 

 

I'm three semesters from getting my degree and I still feel like people on here know more than I do. You can learn a lot from posters on here

 

Please show us your UNCC met degree expertise. Saying Zonal and the models are horrible is not showing us any expertise or skill that a met should have. Especially when the preponderance of evidence on the models, indices, and teleconnections says otherwise. If you want to see horrible models, the month of December was loaded with horrible models. What we are looking at now is much better. If you think otherwise, please give us your reasoning.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure where he's getting the idea of zonal pattern from. Teleconnections are increasing in our favor for a nice, juicy snowstorm (especially AO, PNA, and maybe NAO). We all know STJ is extremely robust given the recent events across the South, so all we need is for AO to flips negative, PNA to become strongly positive, and pray that NAO also flips negative at the perfect time. We're getting all three rather soon looking at teleconnection ensembles. Both the Euro and the GFS ensembles are looking promising with ridging over W USA, a split flow, PV over Eastern Canada, and a possible Greenland block. I'm increasing optimistic for what this winter got in store for us in Western North Carolina

[jburns]

Let's get back on topic.

[griteater]

Let's get back on topic.

00z GFS has CAD, freezing rain & ice as close as Roanoke from the well modeled southern stream system that crosses the country from Jan 6-10

[NWNC2015]

Some pingers, freezing rain, cold rain, close by with a track through Kentucky. Ice storm trends?

 

[snowlover91]

Only 78 hours out, possible flakes mixing in? Boundary layer might be too warm but it's pretty close and not far out. GFS is drier and NAM is wetter but slightly warmer.

[Daniel Boone]

In my 40 years of weather watching, I always hated to see a deep sw trough as it is like pulling teeth to dislodge as system after system keeps it pulled into place. 

   Generally, with that setup, it takes either of two things to flatten the corresponding antagonistic se ridge enough to allow for cold enough air to support frozen precip in the deep south. One, a strong push of Arctic air via the polar jet driven by a 30.40 or greater hp into the eastern states. Two, strong - NAO, preferably southwest based (southern Greenland to Eastern, Can. Provinces with a southerly displaced 50-50 low) . Jan.- Feb. 1979 is  a great example here. A strong - NAO is what we need most now, I.m.o.. A -AO won't always deliver to the se when a sw trough is strongly entrenched. Of course, with right timing, overrunning or waves along a front can produce while the ridge flattens at times.

[Daniel Boone]

Some pingers, freezing rain, cold rain, close by with a track through Kentucky. Ice storm trends?

 

If that came to fruition, that lp looks like it should transfer eastward from there due to HP to it's ne.

[griteater]

Nice post Daniel though I think this whole SW trough deal is more a reflection of a fairly large subtropical jet stream wave that moves into the SW in split flow as opposed to a -PNA with SE ridge. That wave comes out into what should be a significant storm across the country...but thereafter the progs say we cool down as the height pattern lowers in the east

[griteater]

Guess my point is that these STJ waves are 'beautiful' to see. We just need the NAO blocking out front like you said to supply enough cold air and keep the storm track suppressed

[Daniel Boone]

Guess my point is that these STJ waves are 'beautiful' to see. We just need the NAO blocking out front like you said to supply enough cold air and keep the storm track suppressed

Thanks Grit. Yeah, youre right regarding the pna. We're on the same page in that we need that blocking. The stronger lp's coming out of the sw will mainly cut without it. Would be nice to see a bona fide gl develop and move up to form a 50-50.

[packbacker]

Guess my point is that these STJ waves are 'beautiful' to see. We just need the NAO blocking out front like you said to supply enough cold air and keep the storm track suppressed

Thanks Grit. Yeah, youre right regarding the pna. We're on the same page in that we need that blocking. The stronger lp's coming out of the sw will mainly cut without it. Would be nice to see a bona fide gl develop and move up to form a 50-50.

We don't have that showing on any model, yet, it looks like we are going to need a real deal SSWE for a true -NAO because right now all I see is a return to record warmth in the east with a cold west/NW. The artic has completely reshuffled and yet we are still looking at fairly significant warmth in the east through mid month. The eps keeps pushing back and muting the cold after the 12th. All we know is a +PNA/-EPO/-AO combo, a stout combo at that, can't flip us to sustained cold. Still have hopes for end of Jan into Feb.

And yes, EPS agrees with below. Nothing but a transient cold shot or two through atleast the 20th. This isn't 58, looks nothing like 58 (2nd pic below). Complete opposite...should start to raise a red flag.

There is a 50/50 shot we don't shake the cold west/NW and warm east all winter....ask 1998 how blocking worked out that winter, LOL.

[FallsLake]

We don't have that showing on any model, yet, it looks like we are going to need a real deal SSWE for a true -NAO because right now all I see is a return to record warmth in the east with a cold west/NW. The artic has completely reshuffled and yet we are still looking at fairly significant warmth in the east through mid month. The eps keeps pushing back and muting the cold after the 12th. All we know is a +PNA/-EPO/-AO combo, a stout combo at that, can't flip us to sustained cold. Still have hopes for end of Jan into Feb.

And yes, EPS agrees with below. Nothing but a transient cold shot or two through atleast the 20th. This isn't 58, looks nothing like 58 (2nd pic below). Complete opposite...should start to raise a red flag.

There is a 50/50 shot we don't shake the cold west/NW and warm east all winter....ask 1998 how blocking worked out that winter, LOL.

I think a warm winter like 98 is possible but still at this point not probable. The indices continue to look better with each passing day and I'm under the thought that the models are not seeing the true patter change. (but)I do think what the 6z GFS depicts could be a high possibility even with a pattern change underway. This would mean we would not see "real" cold air until after the 20th. I don't think we see record warmth in the next two weeks. It may be more similar to last year where CADs tended to keep the temps down to near normal. **remember last year we had a horrible pattern for wintery precip but still managed to stay near normal (temp wise). It looks like the GFS is trying to show this for the "warm up period",   

[ncjoaquin]

I think a warm winter like 98 is possible but still at this point not probable. The indices continue to look better with each passing day and I'm under the thought that the models are not seeing the true patter change. (but)I do think what the 6z GFS depicts could be a high possibility even with a pattern change underway. This would mean we would not see "real" cold air until after the 20th. I don't think we see record warmth in the next two weeks. It may be more similar to last year where CADs tended to keep the temps down to near normal. **remember last year we had a horrible pattern for wintery precip but still managed to stay near normal (temp wise). It looks like the GFS is trying to show this for the "warm up period",   

 

Just to throw this out, I had 16 inches of snow Jan 27/28 of 1998. One of my favorite snowstorms of all time. It only takes one to make it a memorable winter. So, I agree with you. Even a horrible pattern kept us near normal, so what looks like good signs should stand a chance to produce something.

[mackerel_sky]

We don't have that showing on any model, yet, it looks like we are going to need a real deal SSWE for a true -NAO because right now all I see is a return to record warmth in the east with a cold west/NW. The artic has completely reshuffled and yet we are still looking at fairly significant warmth in the east through mid month. The eps keeps pushing back and muting the cold after the 12th. All we know is a +PNA/-EPO/-AO combo, a stout combo at that, can't flip us to sustained cold. Still have hopes for end of Jan into Feb.

And yes, EPS agrees with below. Nothing but a transient cold shot or two through atleast the 20th. This isn't 58, looks nothing like 58 (2nd pic below). Complete opposite...should start to raise a red flag.

There is a 50/50 shot we don't shake the cold west/NW and warm east all winter....ask 1998 how blocking worked out that winter, LOL.

Well , duh! Your posting the 8th -13th, the pattern change and big storm , aren't until the 14th!

[packbacker]

Well , duh! Your posting the 8th -13th, the pattern change and big storm , aren't until the 14th!

 

LOL...

 

Only 16 days away.