2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[packbacker]

Such a big difference between the old 32 day weeklies and the new 46 day upgraded weeklies as you go out, just look at week 4...posting so we can compare future runs.  Obviously we want to be hugging the new/upgraded 46 day run.

 

new on top

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth says get ready for tree-crashing, damaging snow from Texas to the Carolinas.

 

The evolution to a Total Flip in the entire Pattern is underway, and long range models emphasize more than ever, this tremendous upheaval as we head right into the next 2 to 3 months. So confidence grows.
Long range update at my site, which covers the reversal of all the major index values. EPO, NAO, AO, PNA are all in the process of flipping as we speak. 
This will lead to what I think is an unusually snowy Winter down South, as the western Ridge Develops, colder air works south (but not frigid like last Winter), works with plenty of storms coming into Southern California to Texas through the Southeast, bringing ample opportunity for the moisture to encounter large, slow moving, High Pressures. I still see no reason to stray from my Winter Outlook overall. Areas up in northern US will have to look to the Southern , MidSouth and MidAtlantic states this Winter for maximum snowfall. At some point,which will become too much of a good thing--if you're a snow lover, as wet , tree-crashing, damaging snow occurs from Texas to Carolinas when there's just enough cold air, and excessive rains will abound.

[Bob Chill]

And how long does the +PNA/-EPO pattern last, the 46dEPS says it AO/PNA/EPO relaxes last week of Jan and then reloads again first of Feb. That makes sense but IF a SSWE occurs is it a split or a displacement and do we finally get a true -AO/-NAO pattern in Feb. Looks like in Cohen's latest update he favors a split now.

Also, atleast through mid-Jan the NW will be well below normal since Nov, do we ever shake that...Feb possibly? Been very 73 like and so atypical of most strong nino's.

It's a big question. Considering zero long range guidance picked up on the flip in the high latitudes happening so quick (or at all), it make confidence go way down looking beyond just a couple weeks.

Weeklies will never be good with volatile patterns. Which is fine because that kind of fantasy range is tough to get right even with a stable pattern.

Stable blocking is tough to dislodge. We don't even need models to make that statement. If what we are seeing happen over the next couple weeks becomes stable (stable meaning lasting at least 2 weeks or so without showing signs of going neutral or +), then it's safe to say the weeklies and other long lead stuff will start painting a different picture as time goes on.

I'm speaking only about the ao domain space. It's much larger and less volatile than the nao space. Thankfully most if not all west based neg nao events coincide with a -ao because they share the space. And I haven't seen a true west based nao in so long that I've forgotten what one looks like. Lol.

All eyes on the strat now...haha

[packbacker]

It's a big question. Considering zero long range guidance picked up on the flip in the high latitudes happening so quick (or at all), it make confidence go way down looking beyond just a couple weeks.

Weeklies will never be good with volatile patterns. Which is fine because that kind of fantasy range is tough to get right even with a stable pattern.

Stable blocking is tough to dislodge. We don't even need models to make that statement. If what we are seeing happen over the next couple weeks becomes stable (stable meaning lasting at least 2 weeks or so without showing signs of going neutral or +), then it's safe to say the weeklies and other long lead stuff will start painting a different picture as time goes on.

I'm speaking only about the ao domain space. It's much larger and less volatile than the nao space. Thankfully most if not all west based neg nao events coincide with a -ao because they share the space. And I haven't seen a true west based nao in so long that I've forgotten what one looks like. Lol.

All eyes on the strat now...haha

 

Thanks Bob and I agree!  It will be interesting to see how this unfolds...the differences in the new v/s old weeklies is stark, curious to see what verifies down the line.

[LithiaWx]

WxSouth says get ready for tree-crashing, damaging snow from Texas to the Carolinas.

The evolution to a Total Flip in the entire Pattern is underway, and long range models emphasize more than ever, this tremendous upheaval as we head right into the next 2 to 3 months. So confidence grows.

Long range update at my site, which covers the reversal of all the major index values. EPO, NAO, AO, PNA are all in the process of flipping as we speak.

This will lead to what I think is an unusually snowy Winter down South, as the western Ridge Develops, colder air works south (but not frigid like last Winter), works with plenty of storms coming into Southern California to Texas through the Southeast, bringing ample opportunity for the moisture to encounter large, slow moving, High Pressures. I still see no reason to stray from my Winter Outlook overall. Areas up in northern US will have to look to the Southern , MidSouth and MidAtlantic states this Winter for maximum snowfall. At some point,which will become too much of a good thing--if you're a snow lover, as wet , tree-crashing, damaging snow occurs from Texas to Carolinas when there's just enough cold air, and excessive rains will abound.

Excessive hype as usual from Robert. I much preferred his style before he went to the dark side.

[griteater]

And I haven't seen a true west based nao in so long that I've forgotten what one looks like. Lol.

A trip down memory lane  

 

[snowlover91]

Am I on the right forum? So much optimism about the pattern change and snow potential by mid month lol. Anyways mid January still looks like a good chance for our first event and I'm sticking with my January 10-15th call as the timeframe to watch. Also I posted a few pages back about the similarity to 1957-58 in the evolution of the PV. That year featured a strong December PV which weakened significantly in January as strong warming occurred over the Siberia region and we ended up having an SSW January 30th. I expect a similar evolution this January except a few days quicker with either an SSW or a significant PV displacement. I would say the 15-22nd looks like the time when this should occur. All in all everything is on track and like I've said before January and February should be fun

[LithiaWx]

If this 300 hour pattern doesn't materialize I think this forum might just implode. We are putting faith in some long range stuff. Sure it looks promising but I can't count the number of times a pattern didn't show up on time. Some of you should hedge your bets a little bit. We have all seen this dance before.

[LithiaWx]

Meanwhile I'm enjoying another near 70 degree day. This weekend is going to feel really cold considering how warm we have been.

[SnowNiner]

And how long does the +PNA/-EPO pattern last, the 46dEPS says it AO/PNA/EPO relaxes last week of Jan and then reloads again first of Feb.  That makes sense but IF a SSWE occurs is it a split or a displacement and do we finally get a true -AO/-NAO pattern in Feb.  Looks like in Cohen's latest update he favors a split now.

 

Also, atleast through mid-Jan the NW will be well below normal since Nov, do we ever shake that...Feb possibly?  Been very 73 like and so atypical of most strong nino's.

 

Yeah, everything I see so far in the not so distant future still shows the SE above normal in temps because the cold is focused out west.  The GEFS, out to the end of the run still shows that.  ENS also does below. I remain skeptical that we see any winter weather until that changes.  The blocking and nice red colors up at the pole is great to see for sure (getting us more seasonal)! But 97-98 also had a -AO and look what that got us.  Not saying that's going to happen here, just saying we need more than an -AO for winter weather in the SE. 

 

 

WxSouth says get ready for tree-crashing, damaging snow from Texas to the Carolinas.

 

The evolution to a Total Flip in the entire Pattern is underway, and long range models emphasize more than ever, this tremendous upheaval as we head right into the next 2 to 3 months. So confidence grows.

Long range update at my site, which covers the reversal of all the major index values. EPO, NAO, AO, PNA are all in the process of flipping as we speak. 

This will lead to what I think is an unusually snowy Winter down South, as the western Ridge Develops, colder air works south (but not frigid like last Winter), works with plenty of storms coming into Southern California to Texas through the Southeast, bringing ample opportunity for the moisture to encounter large, slow moving, High Pressures. I still see no reason to stray from my Winter Outlook overall. Areas up in northern US will have to look to the Southern , MidSouth and MidAtlantic states this Winter for maximum snowfall. At some point,which will become too much of a good thing--if you're a snow lover, as wet , tree-crashing, damaging snow occurs from Texas to Carolinas when there's just enough cold air, and excessive rains will abound.

 

 

Wow, Robert has gotten worse than JB lately.  Not saying he's wrong per say.  But making that statement at this point is beyond premature IMO.

[Jon]

Am I on the right forum? So much optimism about the pattern change and snow potential by mid month lol. Anyways mid January still looks like a good chance for our first event and I'm sticking with my January 10-15th call as the timeframe to watch. Also I posted a few pages back about the similarity to 1957-58 in the evolution of the PV. That year featured a strong December PV which weakened significantly in January as strong warming occurred over the Siberia region and we ended up having an SSW January 30th. I expect a similar evolution this January except a few days quicker with either an SSW or a significant PV displacement. I would say the 15-22nd looks like the time when this should occur. All in all everything is on track and like I've said before January and February should be fun

Yeah, SSWE's as a whole occur in Jan or Feb in El Ninos in general. Mid-late Jan is favored overall climo speaking, so if anyone is going to Vegas even in December when we had a death ridge over the east, they would go all in on a SSWE late Jan or the first week of Feb. Despite how strongly the PV was modeled in Dec., it didn't deter me from thinking a SSWE will occur as well...we have pretty high odds in a Strong El Nino and SSWE's have occurred with stronger (a lot stronger, see March 87-88) PV's in the past.

[packbacker]

SSW 2010 roughly 10 days prior to split compared to what Euro strat is modeling.

 

 

[Bob Chill]

 

A trip down memory lane  

 

 

 

 

 

You might get banned for posting porn. lolol

 

I think optimism is warranted for sure right now. Even though we are talking about d10-15 for snow chances, the changes in the high latitudes are happening now and over the next 6 days or so. So that's not fantasy range at all. Seeing all the global ens lock step for d10-15 gives more confidence than usual for fantasy range excitement.

 

All of us could blank out on snow. It takes much more than good patterns for both our areas. Timing and flat out luck are always pieces to the puzzle. Just gotta wait it out and hopes something pops with our yards being target. Both our areas typically require significant windows of opportunity as well. Even if we blank out in the next 15 days it would be nice to see a continuation of opportunity down the line. 

[griteater]

If this 300 hour pattern doesn't materialize I think this forum might just implode. We are putting faith in some long range stuff. Sure it looks promising but I can't count the number of times a pattern didn't show up on time. Some of you should hedge your bets a little bit. We have all seen this dance before.

I don't know...it's hard to truly expect to see winter weather in the SE, ever...I think most have a good handle on that.

[griteater]

The signal for a substantial wave plowing into California and the desert southwest is pretty strong Jan 6-7, with another wave behind it slowly kicking it along in the STJ wave train.  My opinion here is that we do see that wave and that it comes out and runs into cold air that is building into the east for a good winter storm.  Most likely favored to our north and northwest, but not out of the question for some portion of the upper south.  Typically, the Euro has a much better handle on the STJ wave train over the GFS

[RubiksDestroyer]

If this 300 hour pattern doesn't materialize I think this forum might just implode. We are putting faith in some long range stuff. Sure it looks promising but I can't count the number of times a pattern didn't show up on time. Some of you should hedge your bets a little bit. We have all seen this dance before.

This isn't a 300+ hour pattern... AO goes negative on every 00z model around the 2nd-4th time frame.

http://www.americanwx.com/wow/model_center/get_orig_img.php?model=ggemens&run_time=00z&run_hour=0&map=&param=allao

[packbacker]

Am I on the right forum? So much optimism about the pattern change and snow potential by mid month lol. Anyways mid January still looks like a good chance for our first event and I'm sticking with my January 10-15th call as the timeframe to watch. Also I posted a few pages back about the similarity to 1957-58 in the evolution of the PV. That year featured a strong December PV which weakened significantly in January as strong warming occurred over the Siberia region and we ended up having an SSW January 30th. I expect a similar evolution this January except a few days quicker with either an SSW or a significant PV displacement. I would say the 15-22nd looks like the time when this should occur. All in all everything is on track and like I've said before January and February should be fun

 

LOL..I stirred up a hornets yesterday by discussing scenarios that don't deliver us a perfect snowy pattern....some people can't stand the heat.  

 

I still think we need to have a unicorn and rainbows thread for people that go crazy when anyone posts something that's not supportive of cold/snow.

[snowlover91]

If this 300 hour pattern doesn't materialize I think this forum might just implode. We are putting faith in some long range stuff. Sure it looks promising but I can't count the number of times a pattern didn't show up on time. Some of you should hedge your bets a little bit. We have all seen this dance before.

Yes we have, I remember mid-December when the models showed the excessive heat ridge we currently have breaking down in early January. People said "it's happening too fast" and "long wave patterns like this are stable, the pattern won't change that early" and others stating "any pattern change wouldn't come until late January or early February at the earliest" from those who doubted the 300+ hour ensemble runs. Now here we are the end of December and it does indeed appear the old "torch for December" pattern is breaking down with a new one setting up, in fact that change is in progress as I type this.

Here is the key. The 300+ hour maps do have value for picking up on overall trends in a current or evolving pattern. It would be different if people were posting the 384 op GFS, which is horrible, and basing a pattern change or colder weather off of that. People aren't. It's based off of surprisingly good agreement from the CMC, GFS and Euro ensembles showing a similar evolution January 8th and beyond. Furthermore seasonal models have hinted at this (CANSIPS, UK, JMA, and CFS to a lesser extent) while analogs suggest a PV split or SSW event occurring this month similar to 1958. Historically speaking in my 15 years of avidly following the weather I have also learned this; anytime models forecast a sudden drop in the AO, PNA spike and EPO tanking there is usually a big storm either following this drop or leading up to it. With the drop forecast by the euro and GFS to begin the first week of January and pick up steam by January 8th this would favor a big storm in the January 10-15th timeframe, and the Euro run last night hinted at that as several on here alluded to. My point is simply this; yes caution must be kept not to get too overboard with things because there is always a chance for things to change. However, when so much evidence including analogs, PV weakening, long range ensemble agreement and pro mets finally jumping on board I think it's safe to say that the new pattern we are entering for January will have staying power and feature snow/ice for many in the Deep South.

[Jon]

 

A trip down memory lane  

 

 

It helps to have it in Jan for above average snow (seasonal D-F) in RDU during Strong El Ninos, that's for sure (I know you know), mind the sample size:

 

also look, the barents-kara sea high...we have a record-breaking one modeled this Jan.

 

and J-M

[snowlover91]

Also take this FWIW, Larry Cosgrove just posted this on his FB page about 2 hours ago as an update. I think he is a little early on the cold air push, I don't see it happening until January 8-9th personally. He believes this pattern will have staying power. Some may not like him but I find he does have some good stuff and he is the one who helped teach me how to properly use analogs for winter forecasting, although I use a slightly different method and I'm much more simplified in my use of them.

"The most recent runs of the Canadian and European ensemble packages show potential for cross-polar flow and a Siberian intrusion, as well as the threat for a significant, or worse, winter storm affecting Texas, the Old South, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Cold air makes its first meaningful push January 6-8; the chance for widespread snow and ice (maybe rain thunder along the coastlines) is targeted for January 10-14. Given the impressive stratospheric warming event and inputs from tropical forcing, I suspect this tendency for widespread cold and increased frozen precipitation is going to be around for a long while."

[griteater]

The signal for a substantial wave plowing into California and the desert southwest is pretty strong Jan 6-7, with another wave behind it slowly kicking it along in the STJ wave train.  My opinion here is that we do see that wave and that it comes out and runs into cold air that is building into the east for a good winter storm.  Most likely favored to our north and northwest, but not out of the question for some portion of the upper south.  Typically, the Euro has a much better handle on the STJ wave train over the GFS

...And with a cold shot behind the storm

[snowlover91]

One last data point.. I mentioned a few pages back the similarities of the PV to the winter of 1957-58. My reasoning for this is pretty simple; I took the years classified as a strong El Niño and then looked at the PV strength in December. Surprisingly 1957-58 has been an almost exact carbon copy both in PV placement as well as the anomalous strength, according to the NCEP reanalysis. A SSW occurred January 30th of 1958.

December 1957 anomalies, notice the cold anomalies indicating the strong PV. I haven't been able to find any specific numbers on the actual strength but according to this NCEP reanalysis map it was quite strong for December with little warming ongoing.

Here is the placement of the PV in December 1957.

Now notice in January 1958 the placement of the warming and the PV. Remarkably similar to what we see on D5-10 of the Euro. I expect a quicker PV split or SSW event which should occur January 15-22nd timeframe.

[franklin NCwx]

Nice post snowlover91

[Jon]

One last data point.. I mentioned a few pages back the similarities of the PV to the winter of 1957-58. My reasoning for this is pretty simple; I took the years classified as a strong El Niño and then looked at the PV strength in December. Surprisingly 1957-58 has been an almost exact carbon copy both in PV placement as well as the anomalous strength, according to the NCEP reanalysis. A SSW occurred January 30th of 1958.

December 1957 anomalies, notice the cold anomalies indicating the strong PV. I haven't been able to find any specific numbers on the actual strength but according to this NCEP reanalysis map it was quite strong for December with little warming ongoing.

image.png

Here is the placement of the PV in December 1957.

image.png

Now notice in January 1958 the placement of the warming and the PV. Remarkably similar to what we see on D5-10 of the Euro. I expect a quicker PV split or SSW event which should occur January 15-22nd timeframe.

image.png

I agree with you in timing of SSWE more or less, but I still don't think the PV strength can be analyzed or even guessed correctly just from a composite mean map...correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Since the data is lacking for 57-58, there's no way that I know of to analyze the strength of the PV, you can only compare placement and to me, the low heights simply just confirm it's a PV. I think all PV's during winter should be similar to the mean map you provided (again correct me if I'm wrong, I'm new to PV analysis and griteater helped me out last time I posted on this)

 

Here's the mean composite for all Strong El Ninos during Jan

 

Here's the mean composite for all El Ninos

 

As you can see the images are virtually identical.

[CaryWx]

Are there any NC snow accumulation maps for winter 1958?  I lived those in '83 so remember the March storm.

[packbacker]

Are there any NC snow accumulation maps for winter 1958?  I lived those in '84 so remember the March storm.

 

Snow wise it was kind of meh for NC/SC but MA to NE loved that winter which is why you see it talked about alot.  RDU was roughly 7-8".  I would take  a repeat and odds are this is what will happen, it's a MA to NE type period we are in right now.

[weatherfide]

Waycross got 750% of normal? What is that, like .5" of snow?

[griteater]

'58 had a great pattern from Jan-Mar.  Some winter storms, but not huge snow totals like Pack shows.  

 

Best storm was 2/15/58

Asheville: 9.8

Greensboro: 6.3

Raleigh: 3.0

Charlotte: 2.2

 

[KLIMWX]

If this 300 hour pattern doesn't materialize I think this forum might just implode. We are putting faith in some long range stuff. Sure it looks promising but I can't count the number of times a pattern didn't show up on time. Some of you should hedge your bets a little bit. We have all seen this dance before.

 

I agree...  In that reasoning, Hedge your bets, Since the Commodities Futures this Morning are seeing a "spike" in Natural Gas Futures, in the Markets today @ a 40% rise. Due to the forecasted "Pattern Flip" coming.. Home heating Oil soon to follow...

[mackerel_sky]

I'll take a J-M 59'!! I was in a 200% sweet spot!