2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[deltadog03]

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[downeastnc]

Here is the SOI by month going back to 1876

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

[packbacker]

I'll try on this one. When the soi tanks it usually helps fire up the subtropical jet. Lots of warning bells that are starting to go off for a storm in a couple of weeks with the other indices looking favorable.

Pretty much...JB is of the opinion it triggers a east coast troughing but a better way to think of it is that juices a Nino pattern which is typically a plains to SE trough with active STJ. If it does effect things it will take a couple of weeks to show. So let's see if we see some wintery action in the east around/after the 15th.

[Batman]

I would be happy with 1/2" of snow every season and we usually can't even manage that ! One of these days i'm going to move to Dallas and hopefully then I can get in on some of the action.

 

You should have done well in JF 2014. I had about 7" total that season. 09-10 and 10-11 were very good also. I will say that it is not uncommon for us to get shut out. I went from 02-03 thru 06-07 with no measurable snow. That was a long 5 year drought. I doubt we get shut out this year.

[snowlover91]

Pretty much...JB is of the opinion it triggers a east coast troughing but a better way to think of it is that juices a Nino pattern which is typically a plains to SE trough with active STJ. If it does effect things it will take a couple of weeks to show. So let's see if we see some wintery action in the east around/after the 15th.

  

Here is the SOI by month going back to 1876

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

  

I'll try on this one. When the soi tanks it usually helps fire up the subtropical jet. Lots of warning bells that are starting to go off for a storm in a couple of weeks with the other indices looking favorable.

Thanks for the link and the info, I'll dig into this some and research it some more

[downeastnc]

I'll try on this one. When the soi tanks it usually helps fire up the subtropical jet. Lots of warning bells that are starting to go off for a storm in a couple of weeks with the other indices looking favorable.

 

Looking at the chart I linked its been low for a while now which makes since considering how wet we have been.....so as long as it stays low it should mean that STJ stays active.....but with the Nino weakening we should start the see the SOI come up slowly as well....if I understand its relationship to the Nino right from the info given on that site.

[dsaur]

Yes, I've gotten about 12" to 13" of rain over the last 2 weeks. Some of it quite heavy at times. My yard is very soft and instantly floods with the smallest amount of water. Would be nice to freeze this layer later this week!

I had 1.5 as of 9:15, and it's still coming down good, so 2 isn't out of the question with this one.  I thought a paltry half inch seemed kind of underestimating looking at radar.  Not sure what the service was seeing, but my yard has the firehose aimed directly at it.  Maybe Ptree City got my rain hole when it moved out  

  Yes,  I'm looking forward to all the ice sculptures extruding from the frozen ground soon! T

 

CR, the moles told me to have you meditate on "warm snow".  They said it was the balancing opposite of cold rain.  I guess like tire balancing?  Sooner or later you'd end up with cold and snow on the same side, maybe?  I don't know......... the moles were pretty wasted, as usual....they call it channeling the rain...but I think it's just getting plastered   Can't complain thought as it sure is raining.  T

[griteater]

You can view the traditional WSI Euro Weeklies from today's run here - http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog

[Solak]

I wonder what impact this will have on the global Winter?

 

 

Computer model projections are showing temperature anomalies of up to 60 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year near the North Pole on Wednesday.

So, instead of being around minus-20 to minus-30 degrees Fahrenheit, the air temperature at the North Pole could eclipse the freezing mark of 32 degrees Fahrenheit, possibly approaching the 40-degree mark (above zero). This would make it milder there than in much of Canada and the U.S.

 

 

 

http://mashable.com/2015/12/28/freak-atlantic-storm-uk-frank/#VEh5N4yqYaqY

[snowlover91]

I wonder what impact this will have on the global Winter?

 

 

 

 

http://mashable.com/2015/12/28/freak-atlantic-storm-uk-frank/#VEh5N4yqYaqY

Looks like a strong low pressure system pulling in some extremely warm air with it. Hard to believe they could be above freezing.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122900/gfs_T2ma_nhem_8.png

[Snowless in Carrollton]

You should have done well in JF 2014. I had about 7" total that season. 09-10 and 10-11 were very good also. I will say that it is not uncommon for us to get shut out. I went from 02-03 thru 06-07 with no measurable snow. That was a long 5 year drought. I doubt we get shut out this year.

I had about 3" in JF 2014. Pretty impressive that you had 7" in 13-14 considering ATL had 4.6" and you are south of them.  I didn't get any snow in 2011-12, 2012-13, or 2014-15. So, 3 out of the last 4 winters no snow. 

[packbacker]

You can view the traditional WSI Euro Weeklies from today's run here - http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog

The new 45 day parallel weekly is pretty good, keeps it cold in plains/SE. It relaxes blocking last week of Jan but then goes back to PNA/-EPO east trough pattern with slight -AO first 10 days of Feb. JB will go nuts over it.

[griteater]

Pretty setup on the Euro at 240.  Slow moving subtropical jet wave in the southwest states via split flow, with snow breaking out in Arizona and New Mexico.  Sfc high in Ohio Valley and another coming down from Saskatchewan.  850mb 0 deg draped from Raleigh to Oklahoma City

[snowlover91]

Pretty setup on the Euro at 240. Slow moving subtropical jet wave in the southwest states via split flow, with snow breaking out in Arizona and New Mexico. Sfc high in Ohio Valley and another coming down from Saskatchewan. 850mb 0 deg draped from Raleigh to Oklahoma City

Setting up nicely for sure, nice blocking on all sides which if it verifies close to this would lock in a BN pattern east of the Rockies for awhile.

[snowlover91]

Euro ensembles have a similar look to 12z, broad trough January 8-9th and sharpening by 10th with widespread -5 to -7C anomalies across the Eastern US. PV or portion of it looks displaced to southern Hudson Bay region and strong PNA ridging.

[burgertime]

6z looks about as good as it can get in the LR. One thing I would keep in mind is that these large-scale changes usually take a little longer to setup than the models indicate. I would look for something in the Jan 10th - 20th time frame. It's really hard looking at a setup like the 6z has in this NIno and not be excited about a big dog. WOOF. 

[Wow]

6z looks about as good as it can get in the LR. One thing I would keep in mind is that these large-scale changes usually take a little longer to setup than the models indicate. I would look for something in the Jan 10th - 20th time frame. It's really hard looking at a setup like the 6z has in this NIno and not be excited about a big dog. WOOF. 

 

I like the look of the Jan 12-14 low over the SW.  6z weakens and shears it out with the PV dropping south but this is still a strong El Nino winter - the STJ storm should hold together and trend stronger, if it's still around.

 

That would set up a killer overrunning event or if it really does flex its muscle, could set up a major Miller A storm coming deep out of the gulf.

[packbacker]

Model plots from Al (main forum) and WSI (twitter)...yikes...

 

And yes, day 12+ is a SE/east winter lover dreams on the EPS.  

[Upstate Tiger]

Link to Cohen's blog below.  Good read on the upcoming pattern change.  As the models have been hinting, rising heights in the higher latitudes leading to troughing downstream in North America combined with strong STJ.  Also, looks like SSW set to occur in mid January that could really unleash the Arctic hounds south.

 

It will be interesting to see where the storm track sets up in the upcoming pattern.  I think it's safe to say that someone is going to see a big winter storm in the coming weeks.  Historically in the SE, we have seen big winter storms on the front end of major pattern changes.  The models will be playing catch up with all the impulses flying around North America in the coming weeks.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[packbacker]

Just to add onto the pattern post Jan 12th or so...here are precip anomalies from the new 46 day EPS weekly model.  Good grief...#STJ-FTW?

[packbacker]

And the last several runs of the CFS have looked like this...snow shovel buying time? 

 

Compared with a few popular nino winter storms.

 

[DopplerWx]

signals are there, just need to be patient as it is only a matter of time before threats begin to show up on the models.  enjoy your sleep as we will all be waiting up for the euro here in the next few weeks.

[griteater]

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Cohen is pretty much going all in on a SSW or severe weakening of the strat PV whether you believe or not.

[burgertime]

I like the look of the Jan 12-14 low over the SW.  6z weakens and shears it out with the PV dropping south but this is still a strong El Nino winter - the STJ storm should hold together and trend stronger, if it's still around.

 

That would set up a killer overrunning event or if it really does flex its muscle, could set up a major Miller A storm coming deep out of the gulf.

 

Yea, with the look on 6z I would be amazed if someone didn't cash in big time. That big PNA ridge alone screams for something. Normally one run of the GFS wouldn't be a big deal but the EPS also looks great. Really hoping we can eek out a winterstorm before I head to Europe for good. 

[tnweathernut]

Cohen is pretty much going all in on a SSW or severe weakening of the strat PV whether you believe or not.

Just from loosely following Twitter, I think HM would agree.  He tweeted a day or so ago the PV is going down.

[griteater]

Model plots from Al (main forum) and WSI (twitter)...yikes...

Ventrice (WSI) has a good success rate with those EVPM plots. Bigger question may be how long does the cooler pattern last

[burgertime]

Ventrice (WSI) has a good success rate with those EVPM plots. Bigger question may be how long does the cooler pattern last

 

Bingo. One would hope though that with as long as this warmth pattern has lasted the cold would stay just as entrenched. Given the Nino pattern though it's hard to imagine we get much "Arctic" cold for longer than a week or so...but if we can get just below seasonal than there should be some fireworks. 

[Brick Tamland]

I believe it was CR that once posted (paraphrase) --"Give me the cold first in the SE, sooner or later we always get the moisture".

 

Especially if things keep up like they have since the start of fall, and with the prceip hanging around two or three days when it does come. 

[Jon]

Model plots from Al (main forum) and WSI (twitter)...yikes...

 

And yes, day 12+ is a SE/east winter lover dreams on the EPS.  

On an analog note, here's the EXCAM runs from yesterday

 

8-14d analogs for Week 3

 

6-10d analogs for Week 4

 

Verbatim you would think the entire month supports storms. Honestly I wasn't expecting to see blocking until February really...a winter pattern in Jan, sure...but a full blown -AO/-NAO to start Jan? No way.

 

What's impressive about the NH look isn't even the block, it's the Kara Sea ridge is unheard of in the modern era, especially in El Ninos. This has implications for weakening the PV if you read Cohen's blog.

 

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/681291829858402304

 

This winter will likely continue to set records and be an analog that stands alone for years to come. 

[packbacker]

Ventrice (WSI) has a good success rate with those EVPM plots. Bigger question may be how long does the cooler pattern last

 

And how long does the +PNA/-EPO pattern last, the 46dEPS says it AO/PNA/EPO relaxes last week of Jan and then reloads again first of Feb.  That makes sense but IF a SSWE occurs is it a split or a displacement and do we finally get a true -AO/-NAO pattern in Feb.  Looks like in Cohen's latest update he favors a split now.

 

Also, atleast through mid-Jan the NW will be well below normal since Nov, do we ever shake that...Feb possibly?  Been very 73 like and so atypical of most strong nino's.