2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[NCSNOW]

NCrain you need to look and study the euro some. You get played like a yo yo by the gfs 4x a day. It's comical actually.

[mackerel_sky]

Not sure of the exact wording, but I will ALWAYS take the cold first. Give me a good cold air source and then let's work on the precip.

Looks like cold will be lacking, according to Max! I'm excited about 4 days in a row of normal temps!

[packbacker]

NCrain you need to look and study the euro some. You get played like a yo yo by the gfs 4x a day. It's comical actually.

 

HUH?  You looking at the same thing I am?  Both showed buried sw trough in the extended and EPS does try and push trough forward day 15...are you really trying to throw a day 15 ensemble run at me as your excuse to model hug?  #weeniesmodelhug

 

Only thing I am discussing is that I think it's going to take longer than some to get into a favorable pattern. 

[griteater]

My goodness. Rome wasn't built in a day. Two weeks ago, we didn't see signs of anything but what shaky analogues could tell. Now, finally, the pattern is changing. Blocking, once thought impossible, is now shifting into the realm of reality. Even the CFS is moving off of its terrible solution. Give it some time to play out. Even in a less than perfect pattern, many can still see snow and ice. Get ready....

The Rome comment fits well here. We are going from as bad as it gets to improving to possibly quite good. Need to exercise a little GNR patience here.

[dsaur]

Models indicating most of this rain shunting south or north of us...we shall see. Looks like about .50" to .75" according to NWS?

Kyle, have you been getting the rains I have?  I had a string of 20 days with 0 then 1 day in the middle with less than .2.  and on the 11th the pattern changed and I've had over a foot since.  That there is a real pattern change to believe in, lol.  I guess it all depends on the backyard, but a half inch to me now, wouldn't be worth a mention after what I've been seeing, lol.  That front is taking it's time, and I think it will train over some lucky folks, which lately has been me.  T

[dsaur]

Not sure of the exact wording, but I will ALWAYS take the cold first. Give me a good cold air source and then let's work on the precip.

Contrarian that I am, I'm just the opposite.  I'll always take the rain first, and worry about some cold later, lol.  I guess between the two of us we might get something   I figure in winter it will always get cold a few nights, but they are often  dry months, especially if it gets way cold, so the rain is the thing!  T

[snowlover91]

This is what I had expected too, but starting to waffle on that expectation, this Nino has been delivering such extremes I wonder how long or even if it flips truly in Jan.

I'm not worried at all, things are progressing nicely. Taking a look at analogs show that January should unfold below normal from AZ to NC, with the cold down south and the warmth up in Canada due to blocking. The pattern change is unfolding quite nicely. Going from 20-30 above normal to average or slightly below is a welcome change. Furthermore the 240hr Euro is much better than the GFS at 240, and it's better in the extended range as well. Looking at the Euro ensembles the 850 temps drop to seasonal by January 1st and stay BN through January 5-6th. Then they warm slightly AN January 6-9th (transient warm shot) followed by even colder anomalies beginning January 10th and lasting through the end of the run. To summarize that we get 3 days with slightly AN 850 temps (only 2-4C max) and then 7-8 days BN. That's definitely a different pattern than the 7-8 days of +20F anomalies with 1-2 day cold shots. We are seeing the exact opposite with the warmth being transient now instead of the cold. We very well could see something in the January 10-15th timeframe, I have observed over the years that big storms typically precede or follow a big change in the indices (EPO, AO, etc). With that predicted to occur after the first week of January I think we see a big storm across the south that lays down a big snow and makes everyone forget about this warm December. I just don't see any evidence to suggest a delayed onset to the cold, all I see is the GFS OP on crack and the reliable models showing transient warmth with sustained BN temps for the first 12 days of January.

[buckeyefan1]

Hey our pattern change is only about 100 hours out now on the Euro and GFS, it will be a welcome change from the torch we've had all December. Euro has even been hinting at an arctic outbreak during the first week where highs would struggle to break the freezing mark. Now we just need a snowstorm to track!

Normal temps, and a progressive pattern without any blocking=frontal passages with no snowstorm for most of us in the next two weeks.....congrats continues to the west/midwest and ne

 

This is what I had expected too, but starting to waffle on that expectation, this Nino has been delivering such extremes I wonder how long or even if it flips truly in Jan.

This is the million dollar question  

 

NCrain you need to look and study the euro some. You get played like a yo yo by the gfs 4x a day. It's comical actually.

One more remark like this in the discussion thread and you will be watching on the outside   

[weathertree4u]

Normal temps, and a progressive pattern without any blocking=frontal passages with no snowstorm for most of us in the next two weeks.....congrats continues to the west/midwest and ne

 

This is the million dollar question

 

One more remark like this in the discussion thread and you will be watching on the outside  

I would take anytype of pattern change at this point if it includes less rain. I cannot imagine what will happen if we continue into January and February getting pounded like we have in December. 

[Daniel Boone]

Following up on the GEFS, this the opposite of nino climo...warm SE with cold NW.  Nino is driving the pattern but we will be at mid-winter and yet to see a true canonical temp distribution....#strange

looks like it almost wants to connect the se ridge with the high lat. Blocking. Lol. This does actually happen in Summer but rarely in Winter but this year, who knows.

[packbacker]

I'm not worried at all, things are progressing nicely. Taking a look at analogs show that January should unfold below normal from AZ to NC, with the cold down south and the warmth up in Canada due to blocking. The pattern change is unfolding quite nicely. Going from 20-30 above normal to average or slightly below is a welcome change. Furthermore the 240hr Euro is much better than the GFS at 240, and it's better in the extended range as well. Looking at the Euro ensembles the 850 temps drop to seasonal by January 1st and stay BN through January 5-6th. Then they warm slightly AN January 6-9th (transient warm shot) followed by even colder anomalies beginning January 10th and lasting through the end of the run. To summarize that we get 3 days with slightly AN 850 temps (only 2-4C max) and then 7-8 days BN. That's definitely a different pattern than the 7-8 days of +20F anomalies with 1-2 day cold shots. We are seeing the exact opposite with the warmth being transient now instead of the cold. We very well could see something in the January 10-15th timeframe, I have observed over the years that big storms typically precede or follow a big change in the indices (EPO, AO, etc). With that predicted to occur after the first week of January I think we see a big storm across the south that lays down a big snow and makes everyone forget about this warm December. I just don't see any evidence to suggest a delayed onset to the cold, all I see is the GFS OP on crack and the reliable models showing transient warmth with sustained BN temps for the first 12 days of January.

 

Well it's going to be tough to argue this as the 12z EPS shows us going into the freezer days 12+ with active STJ...LOL.  Good grief, it's going to be tough to stop the hype now.

[SnowNiner]

Took a break last week from the boards/models and just catching up.  Summing up where we are, it looks like we're definitely going into a cooler pattern, but just not a snowy one for the east, IMO.  ENS from this morning, but it still shows that most of the cold is in the SW in the long range.  Like ncrainbacker (heh!) said, hopefully it transitions to the east further on in January.  How do you like your January non-snow is the question, warm and wet? Or cool and dry?

 

[weatherfide]

Kyle, have you been getting the rains I have?  I had a string of 20 days with 0 then 1 day in the middle with less than .2.  and on the 11th the pattern changed and I've had over a foot since.  That there is a real pattern change to believe in, lol.  I guess it all depends on the backyard, but a half inch to me now, wouldn't be worth a mention after what I've been seeing, lol.  That front is taking it's time, and I think it will train over some lucky folks, which lately has been me.  T

Yes, I've gotten about 12" to 13" of rain over the last 2 weeks. Some of it quite heavy at times. My yard is very soft and instantly floods with the smallest amount of water. Would be nice to freeze this layer later this week!

[Cold Rain]

Contrarian that I am, I'm just the opposite. I'll always take the rain first, and worry about some cold later, lol. I guess between the two of us we might get something I figure in winter it will always get cold a few nights, but they are often dry months, especially if it gets way cold, so the rain is the thing! T

I think the moles are getting to you! Cold is the best because even if it ends up dry, it still seems like winter. Plus, it never snows when it's warm.

[Cold Rain]

Took a break last week from the boards/models and just catching up. Summing up where we are, it looks like we're definitely going into a cooler pattern, but just not a snowy one for the east, IMO. ENS from this morning, but it still shows that most of the cold is in the SW in the long range. Like ncrainbacker (heh!) said, hopefully it transitions to the east further on in January. How do you like your January non-snow is the question, warm and wet? Or cool and dry?

This map is a little deceiving. At face value, it looks mild for us, but you can and probably will have cold shots coming through via the northern branch. It's definitely not going to yield the same results as the absolutely snowl killer pattern we're just coming out of gave. A well-timed interaction between a northern stream front and a southern stream shortwave, and you'll forget all about the trough in the SW.

[Stormcatt]

This map is a little deceiving. At face value, it looks mild for us, but you can and probably will have cold shots coming through via the northern branch. It's definitely not going to yield the same results as the absolutely snowl killer pattern we're just coming out of gave. A well-timed interaction between a northern stream front and a southern stream shortwave, and you'll forget all about the trough in the SW.

Not only that but with the subtropical jet undercutting the ridge out west it's gonna be anything but a dry pattern. Sure we may have drier breaks but it's the furthest thing from a dry pattern

[packbacker]

This map is a little deceiving. At face value, it looks mild for us, but you can and probably will have cold shots coming through via the northern branch. It's definitely not going to yield the same results as the absolutely snowl killer pattern we're just coming out of gave. A well-timed interaction between a northern stream front and a southern stream shortwave, and you'll forget all about the trough in the SW.

 

Well the EPS delivers the goods again day 12+, it's a pretty good/snowy pattern for the east.  Like Bob said a couple of hours ago, it's drops the PV into Hudson Bay and we have an active STJ.  The east will snow in this pattern, some land mass in the east will get in the way for wherever the combination of cold/moisture come together.  If this pattern comes to fruition....

 

The control run drops the PV into Ohio, LOL.

[snowlover91]

Normal temps, and a progressive pattern without any blocking=frontal passages with no snowstorm for most of us in the next two weeks.....congrats continues to the west/midwest and ne

Normal/slightly below normal temps with transient warm shots is certainly a pattern change. Beginning January 1st the Euro ensembles have us at or BN at 850mb level 9 out of 12 days, and the 3 days AN are only 2-4C above normal. Yes definitely a pattern change, it isn't perfect but it is conducive for snow chances to at least begin showing up. Furthermore by mid month we very well could have several Arctic outbreaks. NWS discussions and pro mets are also calling this a pattern change, like it or not, it's far better than what we've seen

For those who haven't seen the Euro ensembles as of 12z today, they are great! Only 3 days in January with 850s at or slightly AN and the rest of the days are BN. The control run goes bonkers and drops the PV into Maine at the end of the run with strong blocking overtop keeping it in place. Has 850 temps -20C below normal across a good chunk of the Eastern US with massive PNA ridging and a negative NAO. I'm liking what I see, wish I could post a pic of what it shows.

[snowlover91]

Canadian ensembles on board for a major Arctic outbreak possible after January 9th. Very similar to Euro ensembles and amazing agreement this far out. I've also included the control run, yes I know it's the control but it shows basically the same thing as the Euro except the PV on the euro control is in the Great Lakes.

Control

[Supercane]

We're in a strong El Nino, so climatology and common sense scream that this current absurd pattern won't last. I suspect the signal for an upcoming pattern change is real and that we'll enter a cooler, wetter period sometime in mid January. Whether or not it'll be a great pattern for snow is another matter altogether. I remain rather pessimistic on RDU's odds for above-average snowfall given the QBO/ENSO state, but at the same time -- based on the same data -- it'd be really surprising to not get at least a 1"+ event. That doesn't exactly lend itself to a simple answer when people ask me if we'll get a lot of snow this winter. Responding with "I have no earthly idea" never seems to suffice, so "some, but not a lot" is the best way to frame my expectation for this winter. Of course, we all know that winters can go against the odds, especially when it comes to something as fickle as snowfall. 

[tnweathernut]

Took a break last week from the boards/models and just catching up. Summing up where we are, it looks like we're definitely going into a cooler pattern, but just not a snowy one for the east, IMO. ENS from this morning, but it still shows that most of the cold is in the SW in the long range. Like ncrainbacker (heh!) said, hopefully it transitions to the east further on in January. How do you like your January non-snow is the question, warm and wet? Or cool and dry?

I have no problem in mid January taking a chance with a nice +PNA, along with confluence in the northeast and a southern tier storm track. It's a lot better chance than we have had in December...haha.

[SnowNiner]

This map is a little deceiving. At face value, it looks mild for us, but you can and probably will have cold shots coming through via the northern branch. It's definitely not going to yield the same results as the absolutely snowl killer pattern we're just coming out of gave. A well-timed interaction between a northern stream front and a southern stream shortwave, and you'll forget all about the trough in the SW.

 

 

I have no problem in mid January taking a chance with a nice +PNA, along with confluence in the northeast and a southern tier storm track. It's a lot better chance than we have had in December...haha.

 

Yeah, it's certainly possible I'm sure to get something out of that pattern, but for the life of me I can't remember one where we didn't have an east coast trough.  Usually when we get a nicely timed storm, we've always got that going for us even if we don't have blocking.  With a trough in the west, I'm not sure how any storm that forms doesn't make a B line for Chicago or Cleveland...

 

Anyway at this point we're talking about a pattern that may or may not show up 10-15 days out.  We'll see where we are after new years. Right now though, I think this is what we're looking at 10 days away, here's the temp anomolies...that doesn't get me excited yet.

 

[buckeyefan1]

Normal/slightly below normal temps with transient warm shots is certainly a pattern change. Beginning January 1st the Euro ensembles have us at or BN at 850mb level 9 out of 12 days, and the 3 days AN are only 2-4C above normal. Yes definitely a pattern change, it isn't perfect but it is conducive for snow chances to at least begin showing up. Furthermore by mid month we very well could have several Arctic outbreaks. NWS discussions and pro mets are also calling this a pattern change, like it or not, it's far better than what we've seen

For those who haven't seen the Euro ensembles as of 12z today, they are great! Only 3 days in January with 850s at or slightly AN and the rest of the days are BN. The control run goes bonkers and drops the PV into Maine at the end of the run with strong blocking overtop keeping it in place. Has 850 temps -20C below normal across a good chunk of the Eastern US with massive PNA ridging and a negative NAO. I'm liking what I see, wish I could post a pic of what it shows.

Again....two weeks ago those maps were showing "normal" temps and that is what they are showing today. The pattern for the next two weeks still doesn't show a productive one for the SE to get snow. Without any blocking to lock in a low riding the southern stream means transient shots of cold due to passing fronts.

 

Canadian ensembles on board for a major Arctic outbreak possible after January 9th. Very similar to Euro ensembles and amazing agreement this far out. I've also included the control run, yes I know it's the control but it shows basically the same thing as the Euro except the PV on the euro control is in the Great Lakes.

 

300+ hr maps.....sigh 

[Supercane]

Also, it's generally good practice to be cautious about long-range depictions of big arctic outbreaks, but this is even more prudent during a strong El Nino when such events are few and far between. Most likely, the models are correct on the colder pattern change but still haven't quite figured out the new setup (and are overdoing the arctic airmass). 

[snowlover91]

Again....two weeks ago those maps were showing "normal" temps and that is what they are showing today. The pattern for the next two weeks still doesn't show a productive one for the SE to get snow. Without any blocking to lock in a low riding the southern stream means transient shots of cold due to passing fronts.

300+ hr maps.....sigh

No one said it would be guaranteed snow, even a perfect pattern isn't. The pattern the next 2 weeks, however, is a much more favorable pattern for something to pop up if the timing is right. It's a big change from 75-80 every day to 45-50 for highs in central NC. I'll take 850s 3-5F BN for 9 out of 12 days in early January. I agree without blocking it will be difficult to get a snowstorm, but it's never easy to get one here in the south. The point is the pattern is changing and will have changed by early January. We will see predominantly BN temps and any warmth will be short lived which is a stark contrast to the sustained torch we've been in. Steps in the right direction and a positive trend.

Also, the point of the 300+ hour maps isn't their accuracy but the overall trends. Would you rather see a 300+ hour map showing a torch with 70+ temps or one showing well BN? I think you would agree it would be preferable to see the BN pattern showing up. Furthermore long range ensembles are useful to me for one thing; they typically pick up on pattern changes and show trends that need to be watched. The trend they've been showing the past two days is well BN on or after January 9th. This is something shown by the CMC and Euro Ensembles and the GFS ensembles are showing a less extreme version of it. The key with ensembles are the trends they're showing which are largely positive. The details are irrelevant long range but trends are important. Colder and better blocking is what we want to continue to see. The ensembles did an excellent job picking up on the early January pattern change and imo they are useful long range for picking up on colder or warmer trends.

[buckeyefan1]

No one said it would be guaranteed snow, even a perfect pattern isn't. The pattern the next 2 weeks, however, is a much more favorable pattern for something to pop up if the timing is right. It's a big change from 75-80 every day to 45-50 for highs in central NC. I'll take 850s 3-5F BN for 9 out of 12 days in early January. I agree without blocking it will be difficult to get a snowstorm, but it's never easy to get one here in the south. The point is the pattern is changing and will have changed by early January. We will see predominantly BN temps and any warmth will be short lived which is a stark contrast to the sustained torch we've been in. Steps in the right direction and a positive trend.

Also, the point of the 300+ hour maps isn't their accuracy but the overall trends. Would you rather see a 300+ hour map showing a torch with 70+ temps or one showing well BN? I think you would agree it would be preferable to see the BN pattern showing up. Furthermore long range ensembles are useful to me for one thing; they typically pick up on pattern changes and show trends that need to be watched. The trend they've been showing the past two days is well BN on or after January 9th. This is something shown by the CMC and Euro Ensembles and the GFS ensembles are showing a less extreme version of it. The key with ensembles are the trends they're showing which are largely positive. The details are irrelevant long range but trends are important. Colder and better blocking is what we want to continue to see. The ensembles did an excellent job picking up on the early January pattern change and imo they are useful long range for picking up on colder or warmer trends.

I would rather not see any 300+ hr maps to "prove" a theory. All it does is add to the hype that is being conveyed in the post.  As for the first bolded...this is speculation not fact. What we do know is this upcoming week temps appear to be near normal with a trend to go above normal before another frontal system passes bringing the temps back to normal. What happens after that is nothing more than speculation. Period. 

[CaryWx]

I would rather not see any 300+ hr maps to "prove" a theory. All it does is add to the hype that is being conveyed in the post.  As for the first bolded...this is speculation not fact. What we do know is this upcoming week temps appear to be near normal with a trend to go above normal before another frontal system passes bringing the temps back to normal. What happens after that is nothing more than speculation. Period. 

 

I'm confused a bit then.  What do you look for 300+hr maps to tell you?

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

HUH?  You looking at the same thing I am?  Both showed buried sw trough in the extended and EPS does try and push trough forward day 15...are you really trying to throw a day 15 ensemble run at me as your excuse to model hug?  #weeniesmodelhug

 

Only thing I am discussing is that I think it's going to take longer than some to get into a favorable pattern. 

 

NCrain,

   What you are seeing in the maps you posted, is a typical split flow pattern. Notice the high heights along the Canadian west coast. This is the type of pattern we like to see, if we have a cold source region.

[superjames1992]

Yeah, it's certainly possible I'm sure to get something out of that pattern, but for the life of me I can't remember one where we didn't have an east coast trough.  Usually when we get a nicely timed storm, we've always got that going for us even if we don't have blocking.  With a trough in the west, I'm not sure how any storm that forms doesn't make a B line for Chicago or Cleveland...

 

Anyway at this point we're talking about a pattern that may or may not show up 10-15 days out.  We'll see where we are after new years. Right now though, I think this is what we're looking at 10 days away, here's the temp anomolies...that doesn't get me excited yet.

 

 

Without looking at it too closely, I'd think an overrunning type situation with more ice and sleet would be more likely to occur with that pattern (given good HP placement)?

[fountainguy97]

Great snippet from donsutherland1

At this point, the guidance strongly supports the idea that a pattern evolution is now underway. There will likely be a short lag before the impact of the blocking takes hold on the hemispheric pattern. Before then, there will likely be a transitional pattern that lasts 1-2 weeks. During that transitional pattern, eastern North America will likely be much cooler than during December, even as readings average somewhat above normal in some of the areas that saw extraordinary warmth during December. There may yet be opportunities for systems to cut to the Great Lakes, producing short periods of much warmer than normal readings in the East. The West will generally remain colder than normal, but toward the end of the transitional period, a warming trend may begin to appear in the Pacific Northwest and northwestern Canada on account of the PNA+.

I think we need to not focus on each model run. Just like he said a cutoff will put us In really warm air so of course the next two weeks will be seasonable including a couple warm days. It's after this period 300+ hours that our pattern begins so snow lover is correct in looking out that far.