2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[Jon]

The bolded is all that needs to be said I'm sooooooo tired of looking at long range maps being posted

Long range maps can be posted if they're explained correctly, IMO. Nothing wrong with ensemble packages even in the 10-15 or 11-16 day range as they sniff out pattern changes. Same goes with teleconnections. Fantasy storms and snow maps 240hrs+ will change run to run even if we are in a perfect pattern, no use in posting those.

[BristowWx]

Long range maps can be posted if they're explained correctly, IMO. Nothing wrong with ensemble packages even in the 10-15 or 11-16 day range as they sniff out pattern changes. Same goes with teleconnections. Fantasy storms and snow maps 240hrs+ will change run to run even if we are in a perfect pattern, no use in posting those.

So fair to say we will step down over the next two weeks to a normal winter pattern of seasonal cold but dry conditions and hope the two weeks after that the cold holds as well as the blocking long enough for any moisture that might come into play.

[packbacker]

So fair to say we will step down over the next two weeks to a normal winter pattern of seasonal cold but dry conditions and hope the two weeks after that the cold holds as well as the blocking long enough for any moisture that might come into play.

I think we are dry first 7-10 days of Jan after that I would expect it to be more active. Cutters may rule before we get establish though. Patience is going to wear very thin if we have to wait till Feb. Although, for you guys I am not sure what your worried about, with the streak you guys have been on I would expect another 150% climo winter. Although 150% maybe disappointing compared to past couple of winters... :-)

[DopplerWx]

noticeable shift colder and further west with precip in the jan 4th timeframe since the 18z runs yesterday.  still 168+hrs out so plenty of time to watch it.

[FallsLake]

The 12z GFS may not be great but the indices continue to look better with each passing day:

PNA - Stays positive into the LR. Good member agreement

NAO - Looks to average neutral in the LR. Slight spread in members positive and negative

AO - Dives into the deep. All members go negative

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

[Stormcatt]

noticeable shift colder and further west with precip in the jan 4th timeframe since the 18z runs yesterday. still 168+hrs out so plenty of time to watch it.

12z GEFS says don't waist your time on that period

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dsaur]

The bolded is all that needs to be said       I'm sooooooo tired of looking at long range maps being posted       

What you do is simple mental image reversal.  Pretend that the long range is the short range, but it didn't verify, lol.  Better?  No, but living near the portals takes special adjustments, lol.

   One thing I have had a wealth of is rain, and judging from the radar echos going due north, I have some training to enjoy a bit later today.  Can you say 2 plus inches again...almost a sure bet based on recent history.  Tony

[weatherfide]

What you do is simple mental image reversal.  Pretend that the long range is the short range, but it didn't verify, lol.  Better?  No, but living near the portals takes special adjustments, lol.

   One thing I have had a wealth of is rain, and judging from the radar echos going due north, I have some training to enjoy a bit later today.  Can you say 2 plus inches again...almost a sure bet based on recent history.  Tony

Models indicating most of this rain shunting south or north of us...we shall see. Looks like about .50" to .75" according to NWS?

[snowlover91]

The bolded is all that needs to be said I'm sooooooo tired of looking at long range maps being posted

Hey our pattern change is only about 100 hours out now on the Euro and GFS, it will be a welcome change from the torch we've had all December. Euro has even been hinting at an arctic outbreak during the first week where highs would struggle to break the freezing mark. Now we just need a snowstorm to track!

[Stormcatt]

Hey our pattern change is only about 100 hours out now on the Euro and GFS, it will be a welcome change from the torch we've had all December. Euro has even been hinting at an arctic outbreak during the first week where highs would struggle to break the freezing mark. Now we just need a snowstorm to track!

Pattern change is here it's already in motion

[snowlover91]

Pattern change is here it's already in motion

Yeah but it won't be completed until later this week and the colder air will be here in less than 120 hours. There were quite a few who said several weeks ago the pattern change would never happen, long range models are wrong, the torch would last all winter, the December warmth wouldn't break down quickly and models had the pattern change too fast, etc. I want those people to see that long range ensembles and analog data is actually useful for predicting these pattern changes and more often than not (there are always exception years) are a great combo for predicting the change weeks to months in advance.

Looking at the ensemble data this morning there is remarkable agreement between the Euro, GFS and the Canadian ensembles all showing the cold locking in on January 10th and sustaining/deepening through the end of the run. The coldest anomalies shift from the west to the central and southern US. It looks like the first week of January should be at or below average with a further amplification of the pattern to lock in the cold by January 10th. I still think we will have a threat to track January 10-15th based on some of my data, we will see if it happens. Also PV split and SSW looking increasingly likely for January similar to winter of 1957-58 but possibly a week or so faster.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

If this comes to pass, we will get very cold in the east. I think we will see the temps trend colder as we approach the first 10 days of Jan. if things continue to progress as depicted in the latest indices.

[Stormcatt]

Yeah but it won't be completed until later this week and the colder air will be here in less than 120 hours. There were quite a few who said several weeks ago the pattern change would never happen, long range models are wrong, the torch would last all winter, the December warmth wouldn't break down quickly and models had the pattern change too fast, etc. I want those people to see that long range ensembles and analog data is actually useful for predicting these pattern changes and more often than not (there are always exception years) are a great combo for predicting the change weeks to months in advance.

Looking at the ensemble data this morning there is remarkable agreement between the Euro, GFS and the Canadian ensembles all showing the cold locking in on January 10th and sustaining/deepening through the end of the run. The coldest anomalies shift from the west to the central and southern US. It looks like the first week of January should be at or below average with a further amplification of the pattern to lock in the cold by January 10th. I still think we will have a threat to track January 10-15th based on some of my data, we will see if it happens. Also PV split and SSW looking increasingly likely for January similar to winter of 1957-58 but possibly a week or so faster.

Realistically it won't be complete by the end of this week and will still be in motion through the first week of January but I get your points

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[packbacker]

Hey our pattern change is only about 100 hours out now on the Euro and GFS, it will be a welcome change from the torch we've had all December. Euro has even been hinting at an arctic outbreak during the first week where highs would struggle to break the freezing mark. Now we just need a snowstorm to track!

 

Well things are shuffling around, after a few days BN we look to have an extended period of AN heights/temps in the east.  This should start around the 7th and last until atleast the 15th possibly the 20th, this was the classic head fake after a one week respite.  Then in the long range what happens strat wise, do we get a displacement mid-Jan and then how long does it persist?  Does it snap back, restrengthen?  Nobody knows.   I still like climo for nino/w-qbo with a more wintery type end of Jan into Feb but there is no denying that the first 6 weeks of winter (Dec through mid-Jan) the higher heights in east with west coast trough as ruled.

 

For the GEFS it continues to show a -AO/+PNA/-EPO/n-NAO with a west coast trough, something has to give, either the PNA/EPO combo or the west coast trough, but it seems we just can't shake that west coast trough.  I am not buying the GEFS is garbage either, it was the first to pick up on the roided up B/K high and the -AO diving.

[packbacker]

Following up on the GEFS, this the opposite of nino climo...warm SE with cold NW.  Nino is driving the pattern but we will be at mid-winter and yet to see a true canonical temp distribution....#strange

 

 

[Bob Chill]

I wouldn't be surprised if you guys got an advisory or warning event before the MA. As heights build near the pole in concert with the epo ridge, it's likely that there will be major amplification at times. I could envision a suppressed setup once we suffer through the next 10 boring but not hot days. 

 

Last couple years had progressive flow with the epo because there was zero blocking anywhere else. Trop PV looks to potentially get shoved over or even south of hudson as we approach mid Jan. With the block behind it, it won't run away like a scared kitten every time a storm approaches. 

[snowlover91]

Well things are shuffling around, after a few days BN we look to have an extended period of AN heights/temps in the east. This should start around the 7th and last until atleast the 15th possibly the 20th, this was the classic head fake after a one week respite. Then in the long range what happens strat wise, do we get a displacement mid-Jan and then how long does it persist? Does it snap back, restrengthen? Nobody knows. I still like climo for nino/w-qbo with a more wintery type end of Jan into Feb but there is no denying that the first 6 weeks of winter (Dec through mid-Jan) the higher heights in east with west coast trough as ruled.

For the GEFS it continues to show a -AO/+PNA/-EPO/n-NAO with a west coast trough, something has to give, either the PNA/EPO combo or the west coast trough, but it seems we just can't shake that west coast trough. I am not buying the GEFS is garbage either, it was the first to pick up on the roided up B/K high and the -AO diving.

A better pattern locks in by January 11-12th on GEFS ensembles but the Euro ensembles have this taking place January 10th as do the CMC ensembles. There seems to be good agreement in the indices all aligning quite nicely by January 10th for sustained cold to over spread our region. I don't think the GEFS is junk either, only the OP GFS during pattern changes What I expect to unfold is first week of January a volatile pattern with at or BN for several days and then a transient shot of warmer weather for 1-3 days before the PNA ridging further amplifies and the trough deepens over the central and SE US. I expect to see BN anomalies in the SW US through end of January as the analogs suggest this, 58 and 83. However by February I fully expect to see more of a February 58 pattern unfold with well BN normal East of the Mississippi River.

[nflwxman]

Following up on the GEFS, this the opposite of nino climo...warm SE with cold NW.  Nino is driving the pattern but we will be at mid-winter and yet to see a true canonical temp distribution....#strange

 

When in doubt at that range, you gotta go with the EPS.  That shows little to no southern stream interaction that the 0z EPS and GGEM ENS showed.  Could the GFS be right on a posed SE ridge? Sure, but it would go against almost all the analogs for mid Jan.

[max100]

When in doubt at that range, you gotta go with the EPS.  That shows little to no southern stream interaction that the 0z EPS and GGEM ENS showed.  Could the GFS be right on a posed SE ridge? Sure, but it would go against almost all the analogs for mid Jan.

12Z GFS sucks again, barely below freezing for the 16 day period....

[84 Hour NAM]

The upcoming pattern screams Coastal / Coastal Plain of NC cashing in. Trough too far east for everyone else.

[packbacker]

When in doubt at that range, you gotta go with the EPS.  That shows little to no southern stream interaction that the 0z EPS and GGEM ENS showed.  Could the GFS be right on a posed SE ridge? Sure, but it would go against almost all the analogs for mid Jan.

We will see, this will be a good test of the models at this range. This is definitely a Nino of extremes, so it will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Right now it's on track to be one of, if not the warmest strong nino's ever for DJF. Seems hard to envision one of the warmest ever as also a snowy one...hmmmm

[packbacker]

I wouldn't be surprised if you guys got an advisory or warning event before the MA. As heights build near the pole in concert with the epo ridge, it's likely that there will be major amplification at times. I could envision a suppressed setup once we suffer through the next 10 boring but not hot days. 

 

Last couple years had progressive flow with the epo because there was zero blocking anywhere else. Trop PV looks to potentially get shoved over or even south of hudson as we approach mid Jan. With the block behind it, it won't run away like a scared kitten every time a storm approaches.

Well we are still talking about a day 15 fantasy pattern so we will see but I don't envision an advisory level event anytime soon (3 weeks). I still am not sure we ever transition to that pattern you describe, I am starting to think we see more of the same for bulk of Jan and then a return to a Feb 2015 pattern which is great for you guys to the NE but sucks for us.

[packbacker]

A better pattern locks in by January 11-12th on GEFS ensembles but the Euro ensembles have this taking place January 10th as do the CMC ensembles. There seems to be good agreement in the indices all aligning quite nicely by January 10th for sustained cold to over spread our region. I don't think the GEFS is junk either, only the OP GFS during pattern changes What I expect to unfold is first week of January a volatile pattern with at or BN for several days and then a transient shot of warmer weather for 1-3 days before the PNA ridging further amplifies and the trough deepens over the central and SE US. I expect to see BN anomalies in the SW US through end of January as the analogs suggest this, 58 and 83. However by February I fully expect to see more of a February 58 pattern unfold with well BN normal East of the Mississippi River.

This is what I had expected too, but starting to waffle on that expectation, this Nino has been delivering such extremes I wonder how long or even if it flips truly in Jan.

[Cold Rain]

My goodness. Rome wasn't built in a day. Two weeks ago, we didn't see signs of anything but what shaky analogues could tell. Now, finally, the pattern is changing. Blocking, once thought impossible, is now shifting into the realm of reality. Even the CFS is moving off of its terrible solution. Give it some time to play out. Even in a less than perfect pattern, many can still see snow and ice. Get ready....

[CaryWx]

I believe it was CR that once posted (paraphrase) --"Give me the cold first in the SE, sooner or later we always get the moisture".

[FallsLake]

Well we are still talking about a day 15 fantasy pattern so we will see but I don't envision an advisory level event anytime soon (3 weeks). I still am not sure we ever transition to that pattern you describe, I am starting to think we see more of the same for bulk of Jan and then a return to a Feb 2015 pattern which is great for you guys to the NE but sucks for us.

For our area, last February turned out good. I would prefer that we not depend on February (like last 2 winters) to bail us out but I guess we'll see.

[Cold Rain]

I believe it was CR that once posted (paraphrase) --"Give me the cold first in the SE, sooner or later we always get the moisture".

Not sure of the exact wording, but I will ALWAYS take the cold first. Give me a good cold air source and then let's work on the precip.

[packbacker]

For our area, last February turned out good. I would prefer that we not depend on February (like last 2 winters) to bail us out but I guess we'll see.

Great for you, ok for me, sucktastic for CR.

[tonysc]

For our area, last February turned out good. I would prefer that we not depend on February (like last 2 winters) to bail us out but I guess we'll see.

Yeah well let's not forget that February has produced some memorable and even historical snowstorms for many of us.

[Heisy]

Day 9-10 EURO one of the best looks I've seen so far this year. PV good spot, +PNA, energy undercutting it, some Greenland ridging.