downeastnc Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 No it wasn't. There was a nice snow event on the 6z for many areas. http://68.226.77.253/text/offhrGFSxExtract/GFS_KAKH.txt Right folks got weird definition of ugly, the 6Z was nice, 12Z was a big shift west but in this range track isn't so much the issue its the signal for a storm that we want to see...gotta have storm first then we worry about the cold.... Also folks have to remember that the models will waver a lot during a pattern change so I would expect big changes in temps and storm placements in the long range, I wouldn't worry so much if the models show warm etc as almost all the indexs look to go favorable for cold/snow in the SE. basically the models will come around as we get a week or so into Jan and they get a better grip on the new pattern..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12 GEFS is very interesting for parts of the eastern area this weekend. It's a huge increase vs previous runs over the last few days. Cmc has had something in that period ( yes I know the cmc blows) but it's a big jump for the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Bad run of the 12z GFS. I would guess in the medium range there could be some hope for something wintery; but in the LR there would be no real push of cold air into the SE. Do I believe it, not really. I suppose its possible but with all the good signs of blocking you have to figure more cold air will get pushed southward. The op is gonna bounce all over the place and that's expected during a big pattern change. Plus it's the GFS boat day 2 .....Can't use the op for LR guidance. 12z GEFS still looks really good. Builds the -EPO . Steady as she goes . Also really starts to crank waves post day 8 . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just no getting around a trough buried in the southwest, classic head fake, cold first week of Jan then a relax with AN temps for a period...hopefully we get into a good pattern post Jan 20th. Hard to believe this is +PNA/-EPO/-AO and we get well above temps in the east. Still lots of good things occurring with blocking/strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12 GEFS is very interesting for parts of the eastern area this weekend. It's a huge increase vs previous runs over the last few days. Cmc has had something in that period ( yes I know the cmc blows) but it's a big jump for the GEFS Didn't see anything of interest on it, probability of 1" or more of snow through D10 was extremely low and similar to previous runs. Is it showing something close for the area but not quite there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Didn't see anything of interest on it, probability of 1" or more of snow through D10 was extremely low and similar to previous runs. Is it showing something close for the area but not quite there? I was looking at the individual members many of them have a system during this period. Few of them are late bloomers. If anything did develop I would think it favors the eastern areas . More of an overrunning type look with a SW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I was looking at the individual members many of them have a system during this period. Few of them are late bloomers. If anything did develop I would think it favors the eastern areas . More of an overrunning type look with a SW flow Thanks! Do you have a link to the individual members or is it a paid site? I don't have any but would love to look at them as it's often pretty useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Thanks! Do you have a link to the individual members or is it a paid site? I don't have any but would love to look at them as it's often pretty useful. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z EPS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ^ The Texas/Mehico winter rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 We actually could see some mix or an ice storm out of that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 We actually could see some mix or an ice storm out of that pattern. Sorry if these belong somewhere else Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ^ That one's better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Sorry if these belong somewhere else Sent from my iPhone What we want to see, trough shift from west to s-plains to SE. CMC-ENS supports somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 What we want to see, trough shift from west to s-plains to SE. CMC-ENS supports somewhat. The evolution of the pattern change is pretty well set now it appears....expect the models to waffle some the next week or so as they figure it out but the idea of a early Jan pattern change to seasonal and then a more significant change to real sustained cold on the east coast by mid Jan and beyond seem to be coming together nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Sorry if these belong somewhere else Sent from my iPhone They do. 1977-78 is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The evolution of the pattern change is pretty well set now it appears....expect the models to waffle some the next week or so as they figure it out but the idea of a early Jan pattern change to seasonal and then a more significant change to real sustained cold on the east coast by mid Jan and beyond seem to be coming together nicely. Agreed, only unknown is how long after Jan 10th does it take for the trough to setup in the southeast. EPS says mid-Jan but 12z GEFS says maybe later. And bigger question is do we get a full blown -NAO in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A little of everything today. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 They do. 1977-78 is my guess. It wasn't the south east, but it was Jan 1978 - and I used my second floor bathroom window as my front door for three weeks: http://www.wndu.com/home/headlines/Remembering-the-blizzard-of-1978-188601721.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978 http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1978MW.html Pics from that storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z Euro went crazy with the -AO...wow, been a long time since I saw this from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12z Euro went crazy with the -AO...wow, been a long time since I saw this from the Euro Jon, It's happening! Right after Christmas!!!! Let's count on one hand whoda thunk it .... You folks are gonna score!!!!! Best! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Agreed, only unknown is how long after Jan 10th does it take for the trough to setup in the southeast. EPS says mid-Jan but 12z GEFS says maybe later. And bigger question is do we get a full blown -NAO in Feb. I guessing we go from one extreme to the other, thats just how these things tend to play out when they flip like this.....my guess is the last two weeks of Jan and Feb are well below normal with a active STJ, this however doesnt mean wall to wall snow/ice we need to track to be south and not see a lot of storms turn up the coast...basically we need the Mid Atl and NE people to be bitching about dry cold that entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Are there any signs in the models pointing to a good wedge anytime soon? I'm not talking winter precip wedge, but at least a wedge that brings us down into the 40s in the afternoon, anything on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I guessing we go from one extreme to the other, thats just how these things tend to play out when they flip like this.....my guess is the last two weeks of Jan and Feb are well below normal with a active STJ, this however doesnt mean wall to wall snow/ice we need to track to be south and not see a lot of storms turn up the coast...basically we need the Mid Atl and NE people to be bitching about dry cold that entire time. not a bad thing ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Are there any signs in the models pointing to a good wedge anytime soon? I'm not talking winter precip wedge, but at least a wedge that brings us down into the 40s in the afternoon, anything on the models? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015122718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=644 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Jon, It's happening! Right after Christmas!!!! Let's count on one hand whoda thunk it .... You folks are gonna score!!!!! Best! Phil Only for a week or two, according to Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 And everyone's favorite...wait for it...hour 384 from the 18z gfs: There's no shame in my game! Y'all enjoy the fantasy love! Only 16 days away! Prepare for glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Only for a week or two, according to Pack! you'll be back at work by then - climate controlled environment, with enough to keep you occupied .... enjoy while can - summer vacation and 'cane season isn't that far off (relatively) ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Agreed, only unknown is how long after Jan 10th does it take for the trough to setup in the southeast. EPS says mid-Jan but 12z GEFS says maybe later. And bigger question is do we get a full blown -NAO in Feb. Everything doesn't have to be perfect and 20 degrees everyday for us to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I guessing we go from one extreme to the other, thats just how these things tend to play out when they flip like this.....my guess is the last two weeks of Jan and Feb are well below normal with a active STJ, this however doesnt mean wall to wall snow/ice we need to track to be south and not see a lot of storms turn up the coast...basically we need the Mid Atl and NE people to be bitching about dry cold that entire time. Done. How's this..."can't believe it's so freakin dry...wall to wall cold but nothing to show for it but NC gets yet another snow storm...even OBX has Its third WSW this season...congrats NC" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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