Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Why? Because that doesn't work out 99% of the time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Why? from the winter quotes thread: "you never want to be in the bullseye this far out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Because that doesn't work out 99% of the time here. Neither does anything else at that range. So how would this be, "a lot better"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 from the winter quotes thread: "you never want to be in the bullseye this far out" This far out, everything is bull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Neither does anything else at that range. So how would this be, "a lot better"? I am saying if it showed an actual snow storm here that far out. It's better that it isn't showing that this far out because 99% of the time it doesn't happen. I think it's usually better for the models to pick up things gradually as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I am saying if it showed an actual snow storm here that far out. It's better that it isn't showing that this far out because 99% of the time it doesn't happen. I think it's usually better for the models to pick up things gradually as we get closer. OK, Brick. I think everyone knows that the models tend to do better the closer we get to an event. I was hoping you had some new methodology that gave deeper insight into long range predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 OK, Brick. I think everyone knows that the models tend to do better the closer we get to an event. I was hoping you had some new methodology that gave deeper insight into long range predictions. Yeah, don't believe anything outside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yeah, don't believe anything outside 5 days. But some things you don't believe are a lot better than others. Got it. You should go into teaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Euro pops a low pressure in the northern GA area at hour 240, probably not a snow track for the Southeast but it's 10 days out so a lot can and will change. You have the GFS with a coastal a little too far offshore and the Euro with a low forming over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 But some things you don't believe are a lot better than others. Got it. You should go into teaching. I should say don't trust it. I think the models can see there is potential there in the long range. So, it's saying there is a possibility that something could happen. But exactly what is not going to get clear until we're at least 5 days out. It is nice to see the potential is there, and now we just have to see if the ingredients come together to actually produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Euro pops a low pressure in the northern GA area at hour 240, probably not a snow track for the Southeast but it's 10 days out so a lot can and will change. You have the GFS with a coastal a little too far offshore and the Euro with a low forming over the mountains. just saw that too, glad to see the low showing up on the euro and gfs, just need to see them keep it over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 OK, Brick. I think everyone knows that the models tend to do better the closer we get to an event. I was hoping you had some new methodology that gave deeper insight into long range predictions. I think his point is simply that if you're in the bullseye long range then there really isn't much that can improve but a lot can go wrong. If you're close but not quite there chances are it could trend in our favor. Even 5 days out being in the bullseye here in the South has a tendency to trend the wrong direction (infamous NW trend). There is quite the disagreement between the Euro and GFS. The GFS 500mb pattern is much different at hour 240 compared with the Euro. Also the storm track and evolution is different with the Euro going over the Appalachian Mountains. Canadian is closer to a euro solution but also different. Something to watch but the model disagreement tells me a lot of changes, either better or worse, are on the way. At least we have something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 just saw that too, glad to see the low showing up on the euro and gfs, just need to see them keep it over the next week or so. I think the GFS will trend NW and the Euro may be holding the energy back a little long long. A good middle ground would be my best guess at this time. Take the GFS track and slide it west 150-200 miles and it would be a nice snow for many. The Euro ensemble low plots will be helpful in determining if there is any agreement in track or not. It probably won't work out but at least we have the cold nearby and the moisture, just need the timing. Fwiw, the Euro taken literally would probably bring snow along and west of the apps as the low deepens but would be more heavy rain anywhere east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 But some things you don't believe are a lot better than others. Got it. You should go into teaching. Lol'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Just taking a broad look it is nice to see the cold moving forward instead of showing up around day 14 every time. I was pleasantly surprised to see it up near 12 this morning. If it makes it past truncation I might have to pay more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 But some things you don't believe are a lot better than others. Got it. You should go into teaching. Like Santa Claus. Way better than the Easter Bunny. But we don't believe in either of them. Or Star Wars. Better than Star Trek. But we don't believe either of those stories either. (I may have just started a war.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Just popped up on Twitter... CIPS Analog Guidance @CIPSAnalogs 28m28 minutes ago First strong signal in the ext analogs this winter of an eastern US “arctic blast” in the Jan 3rd-5th time frame. Exactly why I made the post I did about the ensembles yesterday for the 10-15 and 11-16 day time frame, that would be the 9-14, 10-15 day time frame today. Analog guidance isn't perfect though but it's good to see. Clear pattern change evolving but will we cash in and how long will it last? Not long without sustained blocking...as others have said it's likely to warm up/cool down on and off until we get blocking or SSWE. Also a little disclaimer: This isn't saying it's going to be deep cold coming down, more seasonal temps expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Fwiw, the Euro taken literally would probably bring snow along and west of the apps as the low deepens but would be more heavy rain anywhere east of there. 12z Euro cuts the low just before the Apps so that solution would bring a cold rain to most everyone. What it isn't showing (because of it occurring past day 10) would be a decent shot a NWFS here in the Apps after the low passes. Right now the Euro looks more probable in my opinion because I don't see a strong enough high pressure to the north to funnel down any meaningful cold air. Euro is also showing another LP that moves through NE a day before and that complicates the progression of cold air. Oh well at least we have something to track and who knows, maybe it pans out for us here in WNC. But I am not getting my hopes up on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I like all the pretty blues! We'll need the changes West and East (with the extended periods of cold in Alaska and Greenland we've had) to get cold to stick around more than a couple days. My guess is we'll see transient shots for awhile then have a better chance at some more extended "cold" as we get further down the road, IF we get the the Pacific to cooperate some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 for those of you hoping for Phase 8-1 MJO for Jan....via @forecastguy on twitter: Winters w/ MJO 8-1 in Jan with ENSO >= 1.0 12/05/97-1/13/98 12/17/91-1/25/92 12/24/82-02/01/83 Not a good look (these are temps): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 for those of you hoping for Phase 8-1 MJO for Jan....via @forecastguy on twitter: Winters w/ MJO 8-1 in Jan with ENSO >= 1.0 12/05/97-1/13/98 12/17/91-1/25/92 12/24/82-02/01/83 Not a good look (these are temps): RaleighWx has this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Interesting changes on the CFS over the past week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 RaleighWx has this... Glad we have discussion - that's what this is all about!!!! Keep up the spirit of the Season ... spirit without "family issues"!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Severe weenies are worse than snow weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Severe weenies are worse than snow weenies! Whats going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Whats going on? Lack of weather, I'm afraid; holiday insanity, maybe; look at the severe weather thread for more burps and belches ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Whats going on?75 degrees on Christmas Eve and day !It heat stress related! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Lack of weather, I'm afraid; holiday insanity, maybe; look at the severe weather thread for more burps and belches ... Looked more like a royal rumble on WWE. people are losing there minds on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I don't get this at all, unless we are over-analyzing "running out of time"...I guess he didn't say we are out of time.It's called speaking in riddles to create buzz. Capitalists! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Eventually those Texas/OK panhandle systems need to set up further East, don't they? AccuWeather.com @breakingweather 2m2 minutes ago A major storm will impact the central US after Christmas: http://ow.ly/Wfx59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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