2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[snowlover91]

Really? Jon Davis has been around doing seasonal forecasting for many years and has been well compensated for it...what you are seeing now was probably given to clients a while ago. It is fine to disagree, but let's have a little perspective on it. There is a lot of meteorological horsepower working there. I have worked with two of their staff members before...very smart mets doing well in their field.

I'm sure he's a great met and excellent in what he does. However his seasonal forecast was lacking for many reasons which I'll briefly mention below and why I disagree.

1. No mention of the PDO and how it could influence our winter.

2. Comparing two analog years, 1982-83 and 1997-98 and saying they both featured strong El Niño winters and were warm then expecting this winter to unfold in a similar way. In 1997-98 November was very cold in the east while the rest of the winter was quite warm. However 1982-83 featured a below average pattern in January and February for the south, 3-6 degrees below average according to the NOAA climate page. While he asserts this winter will unfold in a similar way I would ask which direction, a colder than normal January and February like his referenced 82-83 analog or a warmer one like 97-98? Both strong El Niño winters that went opposite directions. He lumps them together which is imo misleading as they unfolded quite differently. Furthermore the 500mb pattern this fall is closer to that of 82-83 than it is to 97-98. The only thing I see in common to that year is the record El Niño, the 500mb pattern and many other things are quite different and why I feel 97-98 isn't a good analog to use.

3. The PV is already showing signs of elongating and heading towards Siberia, a sign it is beginning to weaken already. Long term models suggest further elongation/weakening as well. Also I've seen recent research suggest that a strong PV in October through December tends to rapidly weaken by January.

4. I don't buy into the WAF theory he mentions. The years he references all have vastly different setups and there is far more to our winter weather than the PV strength. A good PNA ridge, negative AO and EPO can do a lot to bring enough cold into the south as we have seen in recent years.

Like I said earlier it's nothing against him but I just don't see much solid evidence presented to indicate a winter that's warm all year. The only similarity between 97-98 is the strong El Niño but everything else is quite different from the 500mb features to the November anomalies/pattern among other things. There just seems to be a lot missing from his forecast and variables neglected which is why I believe it will be quite wrong come January and February.

[Met1985]

Thanks. All we can do is laugh at this hot garbage, I guess.

Lol yep. I see no reason at the moment to get excited about winter at all. Not cliff diving at all but the writing is on the wall.

[packbacker]

 

Winter Outlook from Riskpulse.  Good write up - https://riskpulse.com/blog/2015-2016-winter-weather-outlook/

 

 

 

 

When looking at the typical +QBO analogs you get something similar, kind of what I am expecting too...but even when you roll it forward Jan/Feb still come up below normal, especially Feb.  I probably should read what they have to say but call looks reasonable.

[Mr Bob]

I'm sure he's a great met and excellent in what he does. However his seasonal forecast was lacking for many reasons which I'll briefly mention below and why I disagree.

1. No mention of the PDO and how it could influence our winter.

2. Comparing two analog years, 1982-83 and 1997-98 and saying they both featured strong El Niño winters and were warm then expecting this winter to unfold in a similar way. In 1997-98 November was very cold in the east while the rest of the winter was quite warm. However 1982-83 featured a below average pattern in January and February for the south, 3-6 degrees below average according to the NOAA climate page. While he asserts this winter will unfold in a similar way I would ask which direction, a colder than normal January and February like his referenced 82-83 analog or a warmer one like 97-98? Both strong El Niño winters that went opposite directions. He lumps them together which is imo misleading as they unfolded quite differently. Furthermore the 500mb pattern this fall is closer to that of 82-83 than it is to 97-98. The only thing I see in common to that year is the record El Niño, the 500mb pattern and many other things are quite different and why I feel 97-98 isn't a good analog to use.

3. The PV is already showing signs of elongating and heading towards Siberia, a sign it is beginning to weaken already. Long term models suggest further elongation/weakening as well. Also I've seen recent research suggest that a strong PV in October through December tends to rapidly weaken by January.

4. I don't buy into the WAF theory he mentions. The years he references all have vastly different setups and there is far more to our winter weather than the PV strength. A good PNA ridge, negative AO and EPO can do a lot to bring enough cold into the south as we have seen in recent years.

Like I said earlier it's nothing against him but I just don't see much solid evidence presented to indicate a winter that's warm all year. The only similarity between 97-98 is the strong El Niño but everything else is quite different from the 500mb features to the November anomalies/pattern among other things. There just seems to be a lot missing from his forecast and variables neglected which is why I believe it will be quite wrong come January and February.

You are doing what a lot of people do on here (trying to find a cold solution) and I am not necessarily finding fault with that (that is what we are here for) other than you are acting like professionals with many, many years of experience and expertise do not know what they are talking about...you are not privy to their full on technical discussion..it is just a public teaser. Don't act like these people who have valid credentials and not an anonymous screen name don't know what they are talking about. 

[BullCityWx]

You are doing what a lot of people do on here (trying to find a cold solution) and I am not necessarily finding fault with that (that is what we are here for) other than you are acting like professionals with many, many years of experience and expertise do not know what they are talking about...you are not privy to their full on technical discussion..it is just a public teaser. Don't act like these people who have valid credentials and not an anonymous screen name don't know what they are talking about. 

 

[griteater]

^ lol, nice to see Mr. Bob back in here.  That outlook is slightly warm in the SE, so maybe a warm Dec followed by normal.  Their ideas of Dec-Jan-Feb being warm are probably more geared to the upper midwest and the NE based on the temp map.

[Mr Bob]

[jburns]

You are doing what a lot of people do on here (trying to find a cold solution) and I am not necessarily finding fault with that (that is what we are here for) other than you are acting like professionals with many, many years of experience and expertise do not know what they are talking about...you are not privy to their full on technical discussion..it is just a public teaser. Don't act like these people who have valid credentials and not an anonymous screen name don't know what they are talking about.

I agree. When he made his first post about this and started with;

That forecast from Riskpulse is pretty bad.

I pretty much wrote off the rest of his comments at that point. How can a forecast, any forecast, be judged prior to the time period forecasted? It may turn out to be totally wrong. It may also turn out to be spot on. Point is, it is way too early to make any judgement and starting right out by doing so made me pretty much ignore the rest of his posts on this subject.

[fountainguy97]

I for one fail to see how snow stating his opinions all of a sudden becomes such a bad thing...lol  Are not opinions and "judging" (if you want to call it that) part of forecasting? So why all of a sudden be against an honest opinion about an honest forecast.  I for one do not really agree with that forecast either.  Snow in no way bashed down his forecast and never even hinted that he had no idea what he was talking about.  Maybe its time to stop putting words in peoples mouths and you know actually talk about the weather. Opinion is part of forecasting even my 18 year old mind can understand that.

 

Back to weather... The models do indeed show cold slowly creeping into the US.  The latest GFS at hour 336 (albeit long range) shows a vast amount of the US below freezing.... nothing so far has been close to that.  Its not going to be a on/off kind of change...this change will be over the course of a month.

 

And for all of you GFS haters check out the EURO... now I only can see the 850 temps but at hour 240.... That sure looks like some cold building in Canada and northern US.   -15c 850s building in Canada which would be the coldest that level has been yet.

 

Models are showing a slow build up of cold air in Canada.... Signs of weakening PV and pattern shift.  January will be cold and even the December "torch" doesn't look extremely torchy for us either

[snowlover91]

You are doing what a lot of people do on here (trying to find a cold solution) and I am not necessarily finding fault with that (that is what we are here for) other than you are acting like professionals with many, many years of experience and expertise do not know what they are talking about...you are not privy to their full on technical discussion..it is just a public teaser. Don't act like these people who have valid credentials and not an anonymous screen name don't know what they are talking about.

Not trying to wish cast or find a cold solution, however I do think there is a lot of data pointing towards a cold January/February and that's what I made a forecast for end of October. Not saying he doesn't know what he's talking about, he knows far more than I do as I'm not a met and he probably has much more experience than I do. My point is simply that even in the public "teaser" post there were a few things that didn't match up, as I outlined in a post above. For example the public post lumps 82-83 and 97-98 as years in which he expects us to follow a similar pattern with dominating warmth. The problem with that is 82-83 featured a below normal January and February here in the south while 97-98 was warm. Both analogs are quite different in the winter results with one warm and another colder. I don't see evidence for the warm pattern continuing after December and that's why I think that forecast will not verify. Whether it does or not remains to be seen, however this is something I've based off my own research which isn't geared towards wish casting or cold but towards looking at analogs and other factors to develop a winter forecast. That's how I came up with my own forecast at the end of October calling for a warm November and December and cold January and February. Seasonal forecasting is still a young science and there are so many factors that contribute to winter patterns, some we understand and many we don't. That's what this forum is about; discussing what variables could influence the winter to a cold or warm one and why.

[snowlover91]

I agree. When he made his first post about this and started with;

I pretty much wrote off the rest of his comments at that point. How can a forecast, any forecast, be judged prior to the time period forecasted? It may turn out to be totally wrong. It may also turn out to be spot on. Point is, it is way too early to make any judgement and starting right out by doing so made me pretty much ignore the rest of his posts on this subject.

Just my opinion on the subject, I disagree with the direction he thinks winter will go and called it like I see it. Not trying to say anything about the reputation of the person behind it as from what I've seen he has many years of experience. Main point I was trying to make, although I think it came across the wrong way, is that I don't see winter unfolding in the way he forecasts and I think it will likely be incorrect. It remains to be seen what does happen, that's part of the fun in winter weather and seasonal forecasting.

I just don't see us having a warm winter across most of the US like that map shows, there is far more evidence from an analog perspective and current 500mb setup (as well as PV starting to weaken/stretch) to indicate his forecast may be in trouble. He even acknowledges that a weakening PV would result in a colder solution which is what long range models like the Euro are showing. It shows a move of it to northern Siberia while also elongating and stronger WAF occurring which would further weaken it.

[max100]

Let's all just hibernate this one out.

[franklin NCwx]

I thought snow lover did a good job of explaining why he disagreed. He wrote an informative post explaining his ideas. I can understand why he got called out for disagreeing with their outlook. In the past I have seen Robert and JB's forecasts called out without anything to back it up. Not sure why snow lover is catching so much heat.

[jburns]

I thought snow lover did a good job of explaining why he disagreed. He wrote an informative post explaining his ideas. I can understand why he got called out for disagreeing with their outlook. In the past I have seen Robert and JB's forecasts called out without anything to back it up. Not sure why snow lover is catching so much heat.

Simple for me. The first sentence.

[Cold Rain]

Let's all just hibernate this one out.

Gonna be a one shirt button winter!

[SN_Lover]

I'm sure he's a great met and excellent in what he does. However his seasonal forecast was lacking for many reasons which I'll briefly mention below and why I disagree.

1. No mention of the PDO and how it could influence our winter.

2. Comparing two analog years, 1982-83 and 1997-98 and saying they both featured strong El Niño winters and were warm then expecting this winter to unfold in a similar way. In 1997-98 November was very cold in the east while the rest of the winter was quite warm. However 1982-83 featured a below average pattern in January and February for the south, 3-6 degrees below average according to the NOAA climate page. While he asserts this winter will unfold in a similar way I would ask which direction, a colder than normal January and February like his referenced 82-83 analog or a warmer one like 97-98? Both strong El Niño winters that went opposite directions. He lumps them together which is imo misleading as they unfolded quite differently. Furthermore the 500mb pattern this fall is closer to that of 82-83 than it is to 97-98. The only thing I see in common to that year is the record El Niño, the 500mb pattern and many other things are quite different and why I feel 97-98 isn't a good analog to use.

3. The PV is already showing signs of elongating and heading towards Siberia, a sign it is beginning to weaken already. Long term models suggest further elongation/weakening as well. Also I've seen recent research suggest that a strong PV in October through December tends to rapidly weaken by January.

4. I don't buy into the WAF theory he mentions. The years he references all have vastly different setups and there is far more to our winter weather than the PV strength. A good PNA ridge, negative AO and EPO can do a lot to bring enough cold into the south as we have seen in recent years.

Like I said earlier it's nothing against him but I just don't see much solid evidence presented to indicate a winter that's warm all year. The only similarity between 97-98 is the strong El Niño but everything else is quite different from the 500mb features to the November anomalies/pattern among other things. There just seems to be a lot missing from his forecast and variables neglected which is why I believe it will be quite wrong come January and February.

97-98 had a NAO and AO that went strongly negative. 82-83 also in Feb. All those are really irrelevant comparing current magnitudes and patterns to those years. Like I said, we are in uncharted waters. 

[MichaelJ]

This is the latest from the CPC,  map of the SST analog predictions for those of you chewing all your fingernails off 

 

[Solak]

Model wars for next week. Who will prevail, GFS or the Euro? I don't have Euro data, but GFS is calling for 3"+/-  of rain Monday night into Tuesday.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODELSPREAD CONCERNING TIMING AND BOTH THE POSITION AND EVENTUALEVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL LOW IT REACHES THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXTWEEK. THE GFS CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS THE LOW AS IT DIGS INTO THETENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE EASTERLYTRACK WITH MUCH LESS IMPACT (LESS RAIN AND FASTER CLEARING) FORCENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW ENSEMBLE ECMWF MEMBERS DO SUPPORT THEGFS SOLUTION...HOWEVER...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILLMAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS BASED ON A GFS-LIKE SOLUTIONWITH A COASTAL LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFTAHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREAMONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACEAND UPPER SYSTEMS MERGE OFF THE DELMARVA AND LIFT NORTHEAST. HIGHSBOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOW TO MID 50S...POTENTIALLY COOLERDEPENDENT ON MORE RAPID ONSET AND DEPTH OF IN-SITU DAMMING. 

[Jon]

LOL ....not even sure if I want to comment on the 12z GFS. Big change from previous runs in the extended with cold and fantasy snow for some.  

pretty clear pattern change coming around/by the 20th of December, there's no way that the entire month torches and that should get more clearer in the next 10 days. Could be a white Christmas for some on the east, Euro weekly control is white in the SE the 25-26th, lets just keep it at that...

[mackerel_sky]

pretty clear pattern change coming around/by the 20th of December, there's no way that the entire month torches and that should get more clearer in the next 10 days. Could be a white Christmas for some on the east, Euro weekly control is white in the SE the 25-26th, lets just keep it at that...

I like the way you talk! If the whole long wave pattern is about to be shaken up, there will be some super wild weather! Could be 75 one day and snow the next. Had a few events like this in the late 80s, 88/89 I think!??

[GlaringSun]

pretty clear pattern change coming around/by the 20th of December, there's no way that the entire month torches and that should get more clearer in the next 10 days. Could be a white Christmas for some on the east, Euro weekly control is white in the SE the 25-26th, lets just keep it at that...

 

Oh man, I would love to see that... Are you allowed to post it or post a link to it?

[CaryWx]

pretty clear pattern change coming around/by the 20th of December, there's no way that the entire month torches and that should get more clearer in the next 10 days. Could be a white Christmas for some on the east, Euro weekly control is white in the SE the 25-26th, lets just keep it at that...

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Save the neck for me, Clark. Lol at Jon coming in here dropping a hot one and getting everybody stirred up.

Big blizzard in the SE tomorrow on the 18z Euro. We'll just leave it at that!

[franklin NCwx]

Save the neck for me, Clark. Lol at Jon coming in here dropping a hot one and getting everybody stirred up.

Big blizzard in the SE tomorrow on the 18z Euro. We'll just leave it at that!

lol...

[Jon]

Save the neck for me, Clark. Lol at Jon coming in here dropping a hot one and getting everybody stirred up.

Big blizzard in the SE tomorrow on the 18z Euro. We'll just leave it at that!

Calm down packback...err, I mean CR. Your hot and toasty first half of December is well underway. Enjoy it while it lasts!

[Jon]

Oh man, I would love to see that... Are you allowed to post it or post a link to it?

Legally not allowed to post it but if others will that's not my problem, it's available through weatherbell. Not the first time the euro control has given the SE a white Christmas this year.

Btw - I know how rare white Christmas' are and the fact that the odds are 0.0001% for basically 99% of the US, so don't shoot the messenger folks! I'm trying some cognitive behavioral therapy before you all go on antidepressants...

[Stormcatt]

Legally not allowed to post it but if others will that's not my problem, it's available through weatherbell. Not the first time the euro control has given the SE a white Christmas this year.

Btw - I know how rare white Christmas' are and the fact that the odds are 0.0001% for basically 99% of the US, so don't shoot the messenger folks! I'm trying some cognitive behavioral therapy before you all go on antidepressants...

Not only that , the way the snow map looks for that period it clearly looks like a straight Miller A. Now I know there is no shot of this happening , but how awesome would it be to get a Miller a at christmas. I mean Pack would probably change Isis name back lol

[mackerel_sky]

Legally not allowed to post it but if others will that's not my problem, it's available through weatherbell. Not the first time the euro control has given the SE a white Christmas this year.

Btw - I know how rare white Christmas' are and the fact that the odds are 0.0001% for basically 99% of the US, so don't shoot the messenger folks! I'm trying some cognitive behavioral therapy before you all go on antidepressants...

Just read an article from Accuweather about winter and the Niño . It said the strength of the niño , could cause there to be a bigger lag in the pattern breakdown , and warmth could last through the whole winter! Start the Prozac drip, stat!

[Cold Rain]

Legally not allowed to post it but if others will that's not my problem, it's available through weatherbell. Not the first time the euro control has given the SE a white Christmas this year.

Btw - I know how rare white Christmas' are and the fact that the odds are 0.0001% for basically 99% of the US, so don't shoot the messenger folks! I'm trying some cognitive behavioral therapy before you all go on antidepressants...

[Stormcatt]

Just read an article from Accuweather about winter and the Niño . It said the strength of the niño , could cause there to be a bigger lag in the pattern breakdown , and warmth could last through the whole winter! Start the Prozac drip, stat!

Warmth is relative Kinda like our " torch " for December. We will have our chances