Lookout Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the term I am hearing most from the experts on the board is "relaxation" of the current extreme warm pattern...the would seem inevitable...but I am not hearing anything about what we would term a "cold" pattern except with hoping Feb is good based on historical data. again no optimism about anything other than the routine near to AN temps for 40S for the next weeks. I haven't commented much on it all but I've had a bad feeling about this winter from the start and I've yet to see anything that looks remotely promising in terms of a big pattern change or at least one that leads to us getting anything. What has bothered me the most is not just the persistence of this pattern but the overall scope of the warmth in the entire northern hemisphere so far. I mean it's not just us that's above normal but overall it's been much above normal all over the place in the northern hemisphere. It's hard to have any hope when you see virtually everywhere on land south of the arctic circle world wide, except northeast siberia and alaska, not just being above normal but way way above normal and continuing to see that in the long range...where even in fantasy land models are not showing any real intrusions of cold air. The only positive, and this is really stretching it, is there have been a few runs of the cfs model over the last week showing a change in the pattern and some respectable cold finally making it into canada and the us beyond day 15 to 20. Maybe half of the runs show this of late which is a bit of an improvement over it being persistently warm through the entire period in every single run for most of november and this month. Of course one should take this with grains of salt so small that one has to use an electron microscope to see them but at least it at least indicates a tiny potential for change where as before it showed zero. Just absurd to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the term I am hearing most from the experts on the board is "relaxation" of the current extreme warm pattern...the would seem inevitable...but I am not hearing anything about what we would term a "cold" pattern except with hoping Feb is good based on historical data. again no optimism about anything other than the routine near to AN temps for 40S for the next weeks. Dude, if you are looking for an ironclad guarantee that it is going to turn bitterly cold with heavy snow for the rest of the winter, you are not going to get it. INDICATORS are all starting to point to a pattern shift which will give us a good CHANCE of having an exciting Jan-early March period as is typical in most Ninos. This is the weather though and NOBODY can guarantee anything in the South for winter type precipitation with any certainty. I will again say though that the folks at weatherbell and Robert at WX South have not changed their thinking on their forecast and I think they are pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's like one day, things are looking good and the next day there are bad vibes everywhere. Who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Jon - how long has the 46 day Parallel EPS been up on WB. Just noticed it has weekly 5h plots and shows a real nice canonical Nino progression through Jan into Feb. He's had the 46 parallel up for a while but never linked to it, however the 5h is new within the last few days, the NHEMI link was never there until recently and he never linked to it on twitter as far as I know. BTW, check out the seasonal CFSv2 on wxbell (JFM) it looks similar to the 46 day Euro parallel, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Mark Mancuso @AccuMancuso 2h2 hours ago January to yield winter's first outbreak of icy air in eastern, central US http://bit.ly/1U29FAh When did he switch to the dark side ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Dude, if you are looking for an ironclad guarantee that it is going to turn bitterly cold with heavy snow for the rest of the winter, you are not going to get it. INDICATORS are all starting to point to a pattern shift which will give us a good CHANCE of having an exciting Jan-early March period as is typical in most Ninos. This is the weather though and NOBODY can guarantee anything in the South for winter type precipitation with any certainty. I will again say though that the folks at weatherbell and Robert at WX South have not changed their thinking on their forecast and I think they are pretty darn good. this post seems to be overly aggressive (or defensive depending on how you look at it.) What he said is absolutely reasonable and nothing he said is worthy of this type of response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 He's had the 46 parallel up for a while but never linked to it, however the 5h is new within the last few days, the NHEMI link was never there until recently and he never linked to it on twitter as far as I know. BTW, check out the seasonal CFSv2 on wxbell (JFM) it looks similar to the 46 day Euro parallel, FWIW. The CFS runs are starting to look better for Jan, especially for last half of Jan. Lots of agreement with Jan's evolution. Biggest question is NAO flip for Feb...needs SSWE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Sent from my iPhone I don't get this...I like him, follow him on twitter, but he posts long model runs with a general statement such as this and it makes me scratch my head. We only see SSWE precursors now (ie. ++ heights/deep ridge over Scandinavia) and will likely not see a huge event on a model such as that (at least not for the next few days-week), so not sure what he's getting to other than "hey an SSW isn't on this model yet" or "hey there's not much warming on this ensemble trough early Jan".. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 3h3 hours ago Late SSW, vortex weakening or NAM flips are favored this year, regardless of any of the subseasonal factors, like snow, saying otherwise. From Butler et al. we're already favored for a SSW soley from being in an El Nino or just a strong ENSO...much more favored than a neutral ENSO state. Most of the warmings occur during significant El Ninos or La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I don't get this...I like him, follow him on twitter, but he posts long model runs with a general statement such as this and it makes me scratch my head. We only see SSWE precursors now (ie. ++ heights/deep ridge over Scandinavia) and will likely not see a huge event on a model such as that (at least not for the next few days-week), so not sure what he's getting to other than "hey an SSW isn't on this model yet" or "hey there's not much warming on this ensemble trough early Jan".. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 3h3 hours ago Late SSW, vortex weakening or NAM flips are favored this year, regardless of any of the subseasonal factors, like snow, saying otherwise. From Butler et al. we're already favored for a SSW soley from being in an El Nino or just a strong ENSO...much more favored than a neutral ENSO state. Most of the warmings occur during significant El Ninos or La Ninas. Yep, and w-QBO favor later response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The CFS runs are starting to look better for Jan, especially for last half of Jan. Lots of agreement with Jan's evolution. Biggest question is NAO flip for Feb...needs SSWE. The only thing that worries me is 82-83 and 97-98 didn't have a SSWE, but 72-73 did... however we may not *need* a SSWE for an AO flip We still got above average snowfall in 82-83: 10" but did terrible in 97-98: 2.3". 82-83 saw an AO and NAO flip late Jan for the month of Feb, with events on Jan 21, Feb 6, 10, March 24. RDU got 7.4" from the March event. You can see from my excel sheet here that the -AO was pretty gnarly without a SSWE. Looking at 82-83 it's pretty similar, although I'm not sure about QBO/solar etc. Although the location of the block for Feb isn't really snown on any climate models. Just goes to show a favorable pattern and -AO flip can happen in a very strong El Nino year without a SSWE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 TWC 10 day local forecast has rain every single day and lowest high temp is 62! Feliz Navidad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The only thing that worries me is 82-83 and 97-98 didn't have a SSWE, but 72-73 did... however we may not *need* a SSWE for an AO flip We still got above average snowfall in 82-83: 10" but did terrible in 97-98: 2.3". 82-83 saw an AO and NAO flip late Jan for the month of Feb, with events on Jan 21, Feb 6, 10, March 24. RDU got 7.4" from the March event. You can see from my excel sheet here that the -AO was pretty gnarly without a SSWE. Looking at 82-83 it's pretty similar, although I'm not sure about QBO/solar etc. Although the location of the block for Feb isn't really snown on any climate models. Just goes to show a favorable pattern and -AO flip can happen in a very strong El Nino year without a SSWE. http://i.imgur.co.png 83 is closest analog to this winter, w-QBO/solar was similar but snow cover was much lower than this year. Therefore I do expect a little better shot at SSWE later in Jan. A more blocky 83 would be pretty good. 83 had the miracle March storm so let's hope we don't have to rely on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nino'd...warmth in Canada is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nino'd...warmth in Canada is impressive. Not a bad look for a "transition" period. Certainly not a big storm signal, but something could sneak up the coast with that look. The hope is that January 1-15 could produce some type of small event before a "big storm" pattern sets in after the 15th or so. The AO is looking more and more favorable as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Just popped up on Twitter... CIPS Analog Guidance @CIPSAnalogs 28m28 minutes ago First strong signal in the ext analogs this winter of an eastern US “arctic blast” in the Jan 3rd-5th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS was oh so close to popping a monster storm off the coast around January 1-3 range. Low rapidly deepens to sub 990mb but it's just a bit too far offshore. If it deepens quicker then it could drop some snow for parts of eastern NC and SC. Something to keep an eye on as the GFS indicates abundant cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS was oh so close to popping a monster storm off the coast around January 1-3 range. Low rapidly deepens to sub 990mb but it's just a bit too far offshore. If it deepens quicker then it could drop some snow for parts of eastern NC and SC. Something to keep an eye on as the GFS indicates abundant cold air in place. You are going to awake a sleeping giant just suggesting a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS was oh so close to popping a monster storm off the coast around January 1-3 range. Low rapidly deepens to sub 990mb but it's just a bit too far offshore. If it deepens quicker then it could drop some snow for parts of eastern NC and SC. Something to keep an eye on as the GFS indicates abundant cold air in place. yea it has had something the past few runs in that time frame. likely a cool rain no matter the track but at least it is something to keep an eye on, esp. with our first shot of cooler temps around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 You are going to awake a sleeping giant just suggesting a threat. As the GFS depicted it cold air would be plentiful during this time frame. The question would be if the storm is close enough to throw moisture into the cold air or not.. Something to watch at least and keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 As the GFS depicted it cold air would be plentiful during this time frame. The question would be if the storm is close enough to throw moisture into the cold air or not.. Something to watch at least and keep an eye on.It'll trend NW, we are right where we want a storm at this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 You are going to awake a sleeping giant just suggesting a threat. just wait until it shows a hit at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 yea it has had something the past few runs in that time frame. likely a cool rain no matter the track but at least it is something to keep an eye on, esp. with our first shot of cooler temps around that time. I'm not sure, the 12z GFS has sub 534 thickness levels and 850s -1 to -3C with surface temps near freezing. Obviously details are too far out to pay much attention to, but as modeled it would be just cold enough for snow if the storm were to deepen quicker. I would want to see Euro show a similar solution though, it has done better as usual and if it's legit we need to see the Euro show something also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yes! we're finally getting to actual 10+ day fantasy....misses. In a couple weeks we graduate to actually get some 10+ day fantasy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yes! we're finally getting to actual 10+ day fantasy....misses. In a couple weeks we graduate to actually get some 10+ day fantasy snow! All we need is that NW trend to happen the next few days and we will be in business! Getting the Euro on board and in range too will help significantly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS was oh so close to popping a monster storm off the coast around January 1-3 range. Low rapidly deepens to sub 990mb but it's just a bit too far offshore. If it deepens quicker then it could drop some snow for parts of eastern NC and SC. Something to keep an eye on as the GFS indicates abundant cold air in place. Good thing is it isn't showing anything this far out, but just hinting at it. Plenty of time for the models to pick it up as we get closer. A lot better than showing a big storm 10 to 14 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's two runs with some sort of system like this popping off the coast. The 12z is stronger with it cutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 You are going to awake a sleeping giant just suggesting a threat.JBuns is definately not a giant, but it probably is his nap time! I never thought I could look so forward to seasonal temps in the winter time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's two runs with some sort of deep system like this popping off the coast.Anomalous patterns = anomalous storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Good thing is it isn't showing anything this far out, but just hinting at it. Plenty of time for the models to pick it up as we get closer. A lot better than showing a big storm 10 to 14 days out. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 JBuns is definately not a giant, but it probably is his nap time! I never thought I could look so forward to seasonal temps in the winter time! I only nap when I am bored by the posts in this fo.......zzzzzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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